Why the SNP’s Roadmap to Independence is Not Enough

In February an image went viral of a long line of people enduring sub-zero temperatures as they queued for a soup kitchen in Glasgow. Of course, the bourgeois media were quick to latch on to a remark of one of the volunteers who likened the scene to a country “decimated by years of Communist rule.” The reality, however, is that such phenomena are very much part and parcel of a decaying capitalist system.

This is but one aspect of the multifaceted crises currently engulfing Britain that disproportionately impacts working class and young people. And it’s in this context that support for Scottish independence is higher than ever. The last 20 polls have all shown support at over 50% and the figure is a staggering 79% for those between 16 and 24 years old.

Tory & Labour Intransigence

Nevertheless, Boris Johnson remains intransigent in his opposition to a second referendum. His particularly ham-fisted approach (referring to devolution as a ‘disaster’, for example) has led some to refer to him as the best recruiter for the independence movement. Such hardnosed resistance to Scottish self-determination was perhaps most explicitly laid out by former Tory Chancellor George Osbourne in an Evening Standard piece where he callously wrote: “Ask the jailed Catalonian leaders how their illegal poll worked out” and appealed to Johnson that “whatever the provocation. Just say no, Boris”

The approach of the Labour leadership, differing only in style rather than substance, also loyally represents the interests of the ruling class in opposing independence. Keir Starmer has criticised the Tories for having “no plan to counter Scottish separatism”, in a clear attempt to demonise the entire movement. Leaning heavily on English nationalism, Starmer’s plan for saving the break-up of the UK through a “new phase of radical devolution” is too little too late to halt the main processes driving support for independence.

Deep Crisis of Capitalism

As we have pointed out previously, it was the accumulation of class discontent that saw the idea of Scottish independence gain mass support in the run-up to the 2014 ‘indyref’ (referendum on independence). For many workers and young people, it represented a way out of austerity, inequality and poverty and the campaign for a yes vote assumed the character of a working-class revolt against the establishment.

In spite of its narrow defeat, none of the factors that drove the desire for independence have gone away. Even prior to the onset of Covid, momentum was once again building for a second referendum with 80,000 turning out for a pro-independence demonstration in Glasgow in January 2020.

But the Covid crisis certainly marks a turning point. Scotland has recorded just under 200,000 cases and close to 7,000 deaths from the virus, a result of the reckless profit-before-lives policies of the Tories but also the SNP. Triggering deep economic and social crises across the world, the pandemic has led to a further undermining of capitalist institutions and the system’s traditional pillars of rule. These processes underpin the forceful re-emergence of the national question in Scotland and elsewhere as more and more seek an alternative to a discredited status quo. Support for Welsh independence is at an all-time high of 30% in some polls and recent elections in Catalonia saw pro-independence parties gain over 50% of the vote for the first time.

SNP — Roadmap to Where?

But the question remains of what shape the movement will take in Scotland and how a referendum can be won. Although Sturgeon’s approval ratings are riding high in the polls and the SNP are set to win big in May’s Holyrood elections, there is a growing awareness of their limitations in delivering independence.

Given the decimation of Labour support and the absence of a new left party, the SNP have been able to fill the vacuum created, despite being a pro-capitalist outfit. Nicola Sturgeon has been generally viewed as handling the pandemic more competently than Johnson, but he has set an incredibly low bar!

Growing divisions have been reflected both within the SNP and outside in the broader independence movement. A mass membership organisation, NOW Scotland, has recently been launched by the All Under One Banner group, the organisers of mass meetings and demonstrations that are often directly critical of the SNP leadership.

In 2014 Westminster granted a section 30 order in which it temporarily devolved powers to Scotland to legally call a referendum. Up to now the SNP’s official policy has been to pursue the same legalistic strategy. A majority of pro-independence parties being returned to Holyrood, they claim, would be a clear mandate for indyref2. Nevertheless, as a growing number of supporters of independence now realise, the situation is completely different to 2014 and the Tories will not simply agree to hold a referendum that would ignite a radical mass movement and see Scotland vote to leave the UK.

The stage is therefore being set for a confrontation. Pressure has mounted on the SNP to adopt a “Plan B” strategy that does not rely on Westminster’s approval and points in the direction of extra-parliamentary tactics to secure a referendum. The growing frustration from supporters of independence has pushed the SNP into publishing a “roadmap for independence.”

Yet the roadmap leaves much to be desired. While it commits to holding a referendum it remains intentionally vague and does not get into the precise details of how they would proceed should the Tories refuse a section 30. The fact that the SNP felt compelled to produce such a document is of course significant and gives an insight into the seething anger and impatience they clearly feel from below. Such tensions and differing approaches to independence ultimately reflect contradictory class interests within the broader movement. Although they can be pushed further into adopting more radical postures, we should be clear that, as a pro-capitalist outfit, the SNP will do all they can to prevent the development of a militant mass movement that could go beyond their control and challenge the very system they defend.

Class struggle and internationalist approach needed

Workers and young people should therefore not stand back and wait on the SNP to deliver a referendum. An organised mass movement for Scottish self-determination must be consciously built, one that adopts class-struggle methods and mobilises the strength of the working class in a struggle for democratic rights. Appeals should be made to socialists, trade unionists, anti-racist and feminist activists in Ireland, England, Wales and elsewhere to support this struggle and socialists in the trade unions should fight for the labour movement to adopt a clear position on this question — for self-determination including supporting the Scottish working class if they choose independence.

The SNP have gone to great lengths to assure big business that their interests would be well catered for in post-independence Scotland. We should have absolutely no illusions that an independent capitalist Scotland could solve the myriad social issues facing workers and youth. That’s why Socialist Alternative supports the building of a campaign that links the struggle for self-determination and independence to the need for a socialist transformation of society in which the commanding heights of the economy are taken into democratic public ownership and production is planned based on need, not profit.

In a period of escalating national tensions and protectionism the need to intervene as revolutionary internationalists is posed more starkly than ever. The same experiences of exploitation and oppression fuelling the desire for independence in Scotland are also faced by workers and young people across the world. Armed with a socialist programme a mass movement for independence in Scotland would inspire solidarity from workers and youth elsewhere. We do not just fight for an independent socialist Scotland, but a voluntary socialist confederation of Scotland, England, Wales and Ireland as part of a struggle for a socialist world.