The chaos and crisis caused by Trump’s and Netanyahu’s war on Iran is far from over. In his UN speech, Trump both threatened annihilation of Iran and said he believed a deal will be made after the US midterm elections.
Meanwhile, US ally Saudi Arabia, ruled by Trump’s “close friend” prince Mohammed bin Salman, is drawn into an escalating war with the Houthis in Yemen, causing fears both for the Saudi regime and the global oil market.
The war on Iran has been underway for close to seven months, and still includes huge risks of escalation. The authoritarian regimes of the Gulf states reportedly want to have some kind of deal with Iran, something US imperialism has failed to reach. Representatives of the United Arab Emirates and Iran met at the BRICS summit in India, and both UAE and Qatar gave speeches on this theme around the UN general assembly. Most eager is the Saudi regime, now under increasing attacks from the Houthi forces in Yemen.
Houthi-Saudi War
A 2022 truce between Riyadh and the Houthis ended in July, when the Houthis began their attacks on oil facilities and threatened the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea transportation. The Saudi regime had prepared up to 400,000 troops in Yemen in anticipation of an attack.
However, after weeks of drones and missiles fired at the historic city Mocha, famed for its role in coffee production, the Houthis were able to advance, first into Mocha and then to effectively capture the Strait. Since arriving there in mid-September, their troops have strengthened their positions. The Saudi-financed troops gave up without a battle and fled south.
For the Saudi regime, this is “biggest crisis in years” (Financial Times). Their “close friend” in Washington refused to intervene. “As the Houthis seized territory in southwestern Yemen, the US publication Axios reported that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Donald Trump twice last week, urging him to launch strikes against the group – but the US president refused.” (Aljazeera) Instead, the Trump administration organised separate talks with Houthi representatives in Muscat, the capital of Oman, where Washington was promised that their ships would not be attacked.
The capture of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait was secured alongside missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities and cities, including Riyadh. A fatal blow came when drones from Iran-backed militias in Iraq forced the closure of the most important pipeline transporting oil to Red Sea ports. When Saudi oil exports through the Gulf was blocked by Iran, this pipeline and the Red Sea port in Yanbu offered an alternative route. Still, Saudi oil production fell from 10.2 million barrels per day before the war to 6.2 in August, the lowest in 36 years. On 22 September, it was reported the pipeline will take 6-8 weeks to reopen, transporting 4 million barrels a day. Needless to say, it could then be attacked again.
The MbS regime in Riyadh has increased its air attacks on Houthi areas. Already 125,000 people have fled their homes during the present escalation, adding to the 5 million displaced by the war since 2014. To force the Houthis from the Strait will demand a large war effort. This happened in 2015, where the Houthis were forced out after 1.5 years of war. But at that time, the Saudi-UAE alliance in Yemen was still intact. Last year, a conflict between the two Gulf powers led to the UAE-backed Southern Transition Council being dissolved.
US support to the Saudis, formally secured in a defence deal signed last November, is limited to intelligence reports. The UK recently offered support with a single refuelling fighter aircraft in the air. The recent defence deals between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan also do not mean the latter will intervene in this war. The outcome of a full Saudi offensive is therefore not given, and can cause even larger threats to its oil production. The Houthi attacks have shown some of the same improved capability as the Iranian drones and missiles.
However, not attacking the Houthis full scale will force Riyadh to major concessions. The Houthis demand “the free movement of traffic at airports and ports under their control, demand Riyadh pay salaries in Houthi-controlled areas and give them access to Yemen’s oil revenues” (Financial Times). Even with such a deal, the Houthis would still control the Strait in a similar way as Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of new attacks on Saudi oil facilities would remain. MbS has a very difficult choice and might even place his hopes on some kind of deal with Iran to try to ensure some semblance of stability.
For the world economy, this conflict is now as urgent as the Iran war. They are of course deeply linked, but as the demands of the Houthis show they have their own agenda. The Houthis also did not engage immediately after the US/Israel attack on Iran. With the crisis in the Red Sea, they have now put themselves at the centre of fear over oil and energy prices, with the price of crude going over 110 USD per barrel last week and now hovering in the 90s.
Trump and Iran
Trump’s war on Iran has resulted in defeat on all its stated aims. The deal made over Greenland, after a series of military threats, delivers essentially the same outcome. The rights of Greenland and Denmark are intact with the agreement, for the time being, offering the US two new military bases, something that was already possible on the basis of the deal made in the 1950s.
Alongside the repeated threat of annihilation of Iran at the UN, Trump reported on new direct talks with Iranian representatives. The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was also allowed to attend the assembly in New York. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff. In the talks, Iran raised several demands in exchange for a deal. “According to Iranian state media, the conditions include the immediate lifting of the naval blockade, the immediate release of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to the war on all fronts involving the ‘resistance.’ Iranian state media said the conditions were conveyed to Witkoff during the meeting and that they were behind his acceptance of a request to meet with Araghchi.” (Middle East Monitor)
In Washington as well as in the Gulf, the pressure for a de facto US retreat is building up. Political, economic, and military costs are huge and increasing. US imperialism’s loss of standing in the dominant imperialist conflict with China is huge, despite Beijing doing practically nothing in terms of a counter-offensive. Whether a retreat deal will be reached, however, is still not settled.
In the Middle East as a whole, the war on Iran has increased suffering and repression. The coming elections in Israel will not end the continued genocidal attacks on Gaza and the constantly increasing “settler” and army violence against the Palestinians on the West Bank. For working people in the region, capitalism and imperialism must be fought through common struggle, armed with a revolutionary socialist program, appealing to workers globally.