Will the ‘Burnham Bounce’ Hold?

Andy Burnham has tried to hit the ground running as Prime Minister with a swathe of new policy announcements. His new leadership has brought a sense of hope for some, albeit mixed in with a healthy dose of scepticism among most. But the question is, will he be able to justify that hope by delivering real change?

So far, it looks as if the “Burnham bounce” might have pulled the Labour Party back from the brink of oblivion – at least temporarily. Polls show Labour have regained some support, particularly among those they had been losing to the Greens. At the time of writing, Labour has overtaken Reform UK as the most popular party in most polling.

Burnham has achieved this by promising the biggest change in forty years, talking about creating jobs and reindustrialising the country, ending rough sleeping and fighting the cost of living crisis – promises which are undoubtedly popular with the general public.

But British capitalism’s deep problems remain. The low growth and high debt that have hung over other governments in recent years have not gone away for the new PM, and this has already placed big limitations on his promised agenda. This is further reinforced by Burnham’s choice to stay within the bounds of Rachel Reeves’ so-called ‘fiscal rules’.

The extreme limitations of Burnham’s “cost of living government” were shown in one of his first acts as Prime Minister – the announcement of plans to scrap VAT on energy bills, providing a household saving of only £45 per year. That same month, the energy price cap was upped, bringing up the average yearly household bill by £221. So workers are still worse off, while the energy companies continue to profit.

Doubling Down on Militarism

Meanwhile, with former Defence Secretary John Healey as Chancellor, the government is planning billions in new arms spending. They have pitched this as a way to create thousands of jobs. But it is also part of maintaining Britain’s commitment to NATO, which under pressure from Trump, is demanding its members spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on ‘defence’ by 2035. Burnham reaffirmed Labour’s aim to meet this goal, and even said it would not be ‘squeamish’ about cutting the welfare bill to achieve it.

Andrea Egan, UNISON General Secretary, has rightly spoken out against the building up of the ‘warfare state’ and against cuts to pay for it. Egan’s response should serve as an example for the rest of the workers’ movement. With teachers balloting for strike action this autumn, there is a concrete choice: money for the war machine, or for public services and education. With a Prime Minister pledging to protect jobs, the workers’ movement should mobilise and use its weight to pressure him to put his money where his mouth is.

We’re living in a world of war. As the conflict between US and Chinese imperialism continues to threaten new wars, an arms race is taking place across Europe and beyond. But we must be clear: this warmongering is not in workers’ interests. Militarism doesn’t make us more safe. British and European imperialists jostling for status in the world only makes us less safe. Any attempt to use rising militarism as an excuse for more austerity must be resisted.

This is why International Socialist Alternative members have been at the forefront of organising mass school strikes against militarism in Germany in recent months. We welcome the calls for an international youth strike on 20 November against militarism, which can serve as a step toward building the kind of international movement we need against all imperialism. Instead of beefing up the arms industry, we need a mass programme of green jobs that can actually meet the needs of society.

Climate Crisis Hits Home

The urgency of such a programme has been thrown into sharp relief by the successive heatwaves this summer, as the climate crisis becomes an ever more dangerous reality. While Burnham has tried to spin new oil and gas projects as good for both British workers and bosses, these brutal heatwaves were linked to 2,700+ excess deaths in England and Wales in May and June alone. Since then, huge wildfires have ripped through the East Midlands and New Forest, two trains have been derailed as tracks warped in the baking heat, and the death toll has undoubtedly risen further. With crops failing amid a historic drought, this will surely feed back into the cost of living crisis in the coming months.

We need action to both fight the climate crisis itself and to adapt our infrastructure to the damage already done. But while the government has temporarily banned disposable barbecues and offered some meagre support to farmers, the oil and gas giants destroying our planet continue to get a free pass. This is all while they are doubling or even tripling their profits from the fallout of Trump’s war on Iran.

But there are already examples of workers fighting back under the heatwave. The inspiring example of bus drivers striking for maximum working temperatures in London should be followed throughout the labour movement. Meanwhile community mobilisations against energy-guzzling data centres in London’s Brick Lane, Scotland and elsewhere show that we do not have to simply accept the continued destruction of the environment. Rather than data centres and more oil and gas drilling, we need green energy and infrastructure, including the immediate renationalisation of water and energy.

Farage Embarrassed – But the Right is Still a Threat

The Burnham bounce has been given some more headroom by the fact that Nigel Farage, who seemed poised just a few months ago to be Britain’s next PM, has hit a series of stumbling blocks.

His hollow ‘victory’ in the Clacton by-election was unsurprising. But if he thought a ‘people vs establishment’ campaign would get him out of the hot water he was in, it has totally backfired. While the Reform leader won 63% of the vote, 27% of voters preferred a man in a bin costume, while the establishment politicians refused to play Farage’s game. Adding to his nightmare was the announcement that same morning that parliament would re-launch its investigation into the £5 million in dodgy donations he received from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.

But the far right itself has not disappeared – far from it, they are still a threat. Thetford, Norfolk faced a violent rampage in August, with far-right mobs attempting to break into houses allegedly containing asylum seekers. Unfortunately, Burnham has followed in Starmer’s footsteps on this issue. By pledging to be “relentless” against those asylum seekers making the dangerous journey across the channel, he only further fuels the narrative of the racist right.

To push these ideas back, we need to build a visible anti-racist presence on the streets, on campuses and in the workplaces to make open racism unacceptable, as well as community mobilisations wherever the far right shows up. This should be coupled with trade union action against Reform-led councils to expose the far right’s anti-worker character.

Build a movement for socialism!

The new Prime Minister has a difficult balancing act to carry out: addressing the desire of millions of working-class people for change, while also continuing to preside over the same sick system as his predecessors.

To really deliver on that desire for change would mean confronting the ruling class and their system. The only force capable of taking up that task is the multi-racial working class. That means building a mass movement, equipped with socialist ideas that can cut across the false solutions of the racist right and point a genuine way forward. And to do that, we need an organisation to fight for these ideas as part of the wider struggles of the working class.

This is very clearly not on Burnham’s agenda. In fact, he will rapidly come into conflict with the workers’ movement as unions fight to defend living standards and young people move into struggle against racism, war and climate catastrophe.

Socialist Alternative is fighting to help build a movement that can both challenge this government and push back the tide of racism and the far right. As a part of International Socialist Alternative, we organise with socialists around the world to build an international struggle against militarism and imperialism. The fight against all of these things is inseparable from the struggle to overthrow the capitalist system – it is socialism or barbarism. If you see the need to get organised help build that struggle – then join us!

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