“Trump caught between more war or a deal on Iran’s terms” is how the Financial Times has summarised the situation, as what was said would be a “short war” approaches six months.
US imperialism and Israel’s launch of massive bombings of Iran on 28 February has created a new Middle East, more unstable than ever, spreading insecurity and militarism globally. The effects on global relations, mass consciousness, and struggles are profound.
It is impossible for anyone to keep track of how many times Trump, after declaring complete victory, has either threatened Iran with the world’s worst destruction ever or claimed a deal is near. Those erratic statements have then been followed by rollercoaster oil prices.
In April a ceasefire was declared, and on 17 June a Memorandum of Understanding was reached between the US and Iran. Contrary to Trump’s statements at the time, both have been followed by new rounds of military attacks. This pattern of war and war crisis is very likely to continue.
Below are five short theses on the present situation.
1. Trump and US imperialism are without a way out
Trump has for months dreamed about a way out of this self-inflicted crisis, still aiming to declare a victory. The gradual downsizing of his targets means that what he now aims for is for the Strait of Hormuz to simply return to its pre-war level of functioning. Even that, however, seems out of reach.
Iran is in full control of the Strait, able to attack ships that do not follow its instructions. Negotiations are conducted between Iran and Oman, with the US on the sidelines communicating with Oman. Trump’s announcements of talks with Tehran are denied by Iran. The US only restarted the blockade on Iranian oil exports in July, and few believe the economic consequences will force the Iranian regime to agree to a deal.
Since 4 March, the normal 3,000 ships a month passing the Strait have fallen to a handful. The full effect of the closure has not yet materialised. The global dependence on the Gulf involves much more than oil. “The conflict is disrupting key non-oil commodities – like methanol, aluminium, sulfur and graphite – impacting global manufacturing and the green energy transition. Disruptions to these industrial essentials are rapidly reshaping global supply chains – from fertilizers for future harvests to minerals driving high-tech industries.” (World Economic Forum)
This weekend, the Iranian regime stepped up its conditions for opening the Strait, demanding US compensation for war destruction as well as the withdrawal of US forces from its neighborhood and the lifting of sanctions. Tehran is also still pushing for the imposition of a fee in order for ships to pass. These demands mean that a deal between Iran and Oman, which is still under discussion, will be on hold waiting for Washington’s response.
Trump is under pressure on multiple fronts. Oil prices and general cost of living in the US will have an increasing effect on the midterm elections coming in just a few months. Militarily, the US has used a large amount of its arms, particularly interceptors such as the Patriot defense system, used to block missiles. “The US think tank CSIS estimated that there were 2,330 Patriot missiles prior to the outbreak of war on 28 February, and that by the end of July only between approximately 759 and 827 remained.” (Dagens Nyheter) This also had an effect on the war in Ukraine. Kiev is not getting the Patriots it hoped for, facilitating increased attacks from Iran-allied Russia.
Even more important, US imperialism under Trump has lost much of its credibility as a trustworthy ally. His fantasy statements are exposed to a broad global public. The most likely scenario now seems to be Washington being forced into some humiliating deal in Iran, mixed with continued irregular attacks similar to recent months. However, new escalations cannot be ruled out.
2. The Iranian regime feels it has the upper hand
The massive bombings of Iran have killed more than 3,000 people (US/Israel say 6,000), severely damaged over 50,000 residential buildings in Tehran alone, and two million people have lost their jobs. Yet, the regime has become bolder and more hardline, feeling it has the upper hand.
It is a dictatorship that is used to sanctions and economic crises, as well as to the use of brutal military means. It has now seen the Trump administration dropping basically all of their demands, from dismantling its nuclear and missile programs to ceasing support for its proxy forces. It is not even accepting talks with Washington.
Instead, the Iranian regime has taken up new offensive initiatives. Most importantly, the Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen have attacked Saudi ports in the Red Sea used for oil exports and threatened to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait. As UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg put it, “Yemen today faces a greater risk of renewed large-scale conflict than at any point since the UN-brokered truce of April 2022”. Iran also again proved its capability by striking a US base in Jordan. Iranian-allied groups in Iraq have attacked facilities in Syria and Northern Iraq. A recent drone attack against Egypt was a warning that Iran also can threaten the Suez Canal.
The relative strengthening of the regime in Iran in the region is a result of the war. Domestically, the US/Israel bombing stopped a new wave of student protests at the end of February. During the intense war – and the even worse economic crisis with inflation of over 90% – the focus for most has been on survival. New protests will appear against the dictatorship from workers, students, women, and oppressed nationalities, however the timing can of course not be predicted.
3. Gaza – 10 months since the “ceasefire” misery continues
In media and public opinion, the Iran war has overshadowed the continued genocidal attacks and strangling of Gaza. The “ceasefire” declared by Trump on 10 October last year has meant an extremely limited easing of the hellish conditions. More than 1,200 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza since then, including over 160 in July. In parallel, settlers and Israeli troops have sharply increased their deadly violence on the West Bank.
Israel now controls roughly 70% of Gaza, with two million Palestinian living in temporary tents in the rest of the strip.
The delusional plans from Trump and his “Board of Peace”, a technocratic government and international troops, never materialised. Neither Netanyahu’s extreme-right wing government nor Hamas have accepted it. Last week, Trump made another attempt to launch a 15-point plan for disarming Hamas and withdrawal of Israeli troops (although only to their previous position – controlling 50%).
This new “plan” was flatly rejected by Netanyahu, with right-wing ministers demanding a plan for deportations of the Palestinians and settlements on the strip. However, Netanyahu’s demands for disarmament of Hamas only expose the genocidal war’s failure to achieve that. US imperialism’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have already demonstrated their catastrophic failure to achieve regime change and block Islamist armed groups.
The Netanyahu government will never accept steps towards a new Palestinian administration of Gaza, not to mention a Palestinian state. Neither will the official opposition parties in Israel, with elections coming up in October. It is only the working masses – organized in their own political parties and trade unions – in the region, including in Israel, and globally, that can show a way forward against wars and oppression.
4. A new Middle East – the weakening of US imperialism
For the regimes in Gulf states and the region in general, it is clear that their previous best friend, US imperialism, has caused a new period of instability with its war. Also among the masses in the region – already sceptical of the US, not least because of its backing of Israel’s war and oppression of the Palestinians – criticism and resistance will grow. In Jordan, recent Iranian attacks have led to demands for the closure of US bases.
Last week, a new military pact was signed by the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. What this means in practice remains to be seen. A similar pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan last year has had little impact on the present war. It is, however, a sign of decreasing trust in Washington.
The region will see new alliances, however, none of them will be stable. Iran and the United Arab Emirates, opponents in the current war, are both members of BRICS, paralysing the proclaimed strong bloc from even making statements. Erdoğan in Turkey is reportedly approaching al-Sisi’s regime in Egypt, after years of sharp conflict. UAE, as one of the states who has signed the Abraham Accords with Israel, maintained cooperation with Jerusalem during the intense war, while also recently re-establishing trade with Iran.
The war also has had large effects on the inter-imperialist conflict between the US and China. Because of its own crises, the dictatorship in Beijing has not been able to exploit US imperialism’s weakened position. Asia is especially affected by the closure of Hormuz, with 90% of oil from the Gulf exported to Asia.
5. A main factor impacting consciousness and struggles
The genocide in Gaza was in the recent past the process having most effect on consciousness and struggles globally. A new stage was reached last year, with unions on strike in Italy and growing demands for working class actions. Recently, dockworkers unions across 40 ports in six different countries announced a joint day of action for 30 October, in what should be a rallying cry for unions and workers worldwide. The proletariat is the force that actually can stop wars and lay the basis for abolishing capitalism and imperialism that cause them.
Now the war on Iran which has spread to a regional war with global repercussions is added to the equation. More people have drawn the conclusion we are in a period of war and reaction in the ruling classes. The fear of war is exploited by governments, leading to an explosion in arms expenditure and militarist propaganda.
A growing fear in sections of youth and workers will also create search for alternatives. Initiatives to struggles, such as the Italian strikes and the mass movements in Iran, show the objective strength of the working masses. Socialists show the capitalist system as the link between militarism, increased cost of living, destruction of welfare where it exists, and attacks on democratic rights. Movements from below need democratic organising and a revolutionary socialist program.
