The far right has just won the elections in Peru and Colombia, while in Bolivia a powerful 50-day general strike was derailed by the trade union leadership. Donald Trump now has Cuba in his crosshairs and is imposing new tariffs on Brazil to try to influence the upcoming elections.
Latin America reflects the central trends of our epoch: the deep crisis of the capitalist system, the deepening inter-imperialist conflict, the rise of the far right, the bankruptcy of reformism, and, most importantly, the potential for working-class resistance and the building of a revolutionary socialist left.
Naked Imperialist Intervention
Under the Trump administration, US imperialism has nakedly intervened across the continent. The Trump regime claims it as its backyard through the “Donroe Doctrine”, trying to push back China’s influence.
China has recently replaced the US as the largest trading partner in almost all South American countries, with Chinese firms investing heavily in infrastructure and manufacturing plants. Trump has now intervened to kick Chinese firms out of the ports along the Panama Canal and is using tariffs and leverage over right-wing governments to push back Chinese firms in other countries.
The US imperialist offensive also involves political interference and direct support for the far right across Latin America. We have seen this in recent elections in Chile, Argentina, Honduras, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia. This included securing a $20 billion deal in the run-up to the Argentine midterm elections in October last year to avoid the collapse of the peso – a crucial factor that aided Javier Milei.
The next major test is Brazil in October. Trump is already intervening to help elect Jair Bolsonaro’s son, Flávio Bolsonaro (Bolsonaro senior is currently in prison for his involvement in the January 2023 coup attempt and cannot run).
The Trump administration has imposed new special tariffs on Brazilian exports, making Brazil the country subject to the highest US tariffs after China. It has also labeled Brazilian drug-trafficking groups as terrorist organizations and threats to US security. This paves the way for interventions that undermine Brazil’s sovereignty while portraying Lula as weak on crime and trafficking. However, these attacks, alongside targeting the popular electronic payment system Pix, could backfire on Flávio Bolsonaro, as a majority in opinion polls hold him responsible for the tariffs.
Furthermore, direct US military aggression in the region is still underway: 221 people have been killed in 66 attacks on boats under the pretext of combating drug trafficking.
Venezuela Is Being Looted
This was followed by a military incursion and the kidnapping of Maduro in Venezuela. The acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, was Maduro’s vice president but is now acting as a puppet of the US. Marco Rubio, Trump’s Secretary of State, is calling the shots and is being referred to as the “viceroy” – reminiscent of the Spanish Empire – according to The New York Times.
Revenue from oil exports is under US control, and US companies are being favored while Russian state giants like Rosneft are being pushed out.
Recent devastating earthquakes left over 6,000 officially dead, with potentially tens of thousands more missing. The UN estimates the cost of damage to buildings and infrastructure alone at $37 billion. The US has promised a paltry $386 million, and even this is being used to expand the US military presence in the country.
The Trump administration has collected more than $13 billion in revenue from Venezuelan oil sales this year, according to calculations by the Financial Times. The Venezuelan government set up a website to track revenue from US-run oil sales, but it contains only one entry – a transfer of $300 million in March – meaning the US has retained 97.5%!
In June, Trump stated that the US had recovered the cost of its military operation in Venezuela “28 times over” through oil revenue, adding that the US is “making a lot of money, too.” Meanwhile, $22 billion in Venezuelan state assets remains frozen by the US.
Due to a long economic crisis, increasingly authoritarian measures against the left, and bureaucratic mismanagement, the Maduro government was deeply unpopular, leading initial polls to show strong support for US intervention. However, that support is collapsing quickly, particularly given the late and inadequate response to the earthquake catastrophe.
Cuba: Trump’s Next Target
Trump is now targeting Cuba – not for its natural resources, but for its symbolic and geopolitical importance. While a direct ground invasion remains unlikely, military strikes to pressure the regime cannot be ruled out, even as the conflict with Iran continues.
Since January, Trump’s energy blockade, sanctions, and other reprisals have deepened the humanitarian crisis and exerted immense pressure on the Cuban government. At the same time, Díaz-Canel is pushing through the most far-reaching pro-capitalist reforms Cuba has ever seen, moving far beyond mere support for small businesses and the self-employed.
These reforms open the door to large private banks and corporations, end the state monopoly on foreign trade, and allow for the privatization of state enterprises, further eroding workers’ and social rights. Díaz-Canel is attempting to signal to Trump that overthrowing the regime is unnecessary to secure capitalist and imperialist interests.
This strategy of capitulation being attempted by the Cuban regime did not work in Venezuela. Nevertheless, simply removing the government would not guarantee a remotely stable alternative – a fact carefully weighed by US imperialism.
None of the so-called progressive or left governments have truly stood up to US imperialism, as doing so is impossible on the basis of class collaboration and managing the capitalist state. It falls to the international working class, including workers in the US, to build a powerful solidarity movement that pressures governments to end the blockade.
The Wave of Reactionary Electoral Victories
Trump’s success and the rise of the far right in Latin America stem from the deep crisis of the capitalist system, but also from the failures of centre-left governments.
Several governments of the so-called second “Pink Tide” came to power on the back of mass movements – such as in Chile, Peru, and Colombia – yet failed to alter the underlying economic power structures. This occurred while large sections of the ruling class carried out a reactionary turn to protect their wealth, leaning on the extreme right for support.
Consequently, country after country has seen the victory of right-wing or far-right candidates in recent elections, including Argentina, Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia, Honduras, Costa Rica, and now Peru and Colombia.
The victories for De La Espriella in Colombia and Keiko Fujimori in Peru were extremely narrow, reflecting profound social polarization, and both results are being contested due to electoral irregularities. Espriella is a political newcomer running as an “outsider,” much like Milei, while Fujimori succeeded on her fourth presidential attempt. She is the daughter of Alberto Fujimori, whose dictatorship ended just 26 years ago.
In all cases, these governments are attacking workers’ rights, cutting public services, privatizing assets, and opening access for US corporations to critical minerals like lithium, copper, and rare earths. Following Javier “Chainsaw” Milei’s playbook, Espriella has pledged to slash state spending by 40%.
These economic policies are coupled with assaults on democratic rights and heightened state repression. Noboa in Ecuador, Espriella in Colombia, and Fujimori in Peru are mimicking Nayib Bukele’s model of mass incarceration in El Salvador, constructing mega-prisons with horrific conditions.
El Salvador has remained under a state of emergency since 2022. According to human rights organizations like Humanitarian Legal Aid, over 500 people have died in state custody due to torture, physical abuse, severe overcrowding, unsanitary conditions, and the deliberate denial of medical care. El Salvador now has the highest incarceration rate in the world, holding 3% of its adult population behind bars. Amnesty International estimates that 90,000 out of 110,000 prisoners are held without sufficient evidence. These police-state tactics are designed to terrorize any political opposition.
In Chile, José Antonio Kast is advocating for a “registry of vandals and acts of incivility” to strip social rights – such as free education, pensions, and public housing – from anyone who attacks police, blocks transport, paints graffiti, or uses drugs in public spaces. Kast is also proposing a border wall to stop illegal immigration.
The Working Class Fights Back
However, these governments face resistance. Milei has already confronted four general strikes since taking office. Kast’s administration was met with immediate student-led protests against his plans to slash public spending, environmental protections, and fuel subsidies – the latter of which drove up gasoline prices by 30% and diesel by 60%.
Bolivia recently saw one of the most powerful mass movements in the region. Rodrigo Paz was elected as a “moderate” right-wing candidate against his second-round rival, former president Tuto Quiroga. Assuming office in November, Paz issued a presidential decree on December 8 that slashed fuel subsidies and opened natural resources to foreign capital. This led Vice President Edmand Lara to break with the government, accusing Paz of “governing for the rich”. The decree triggered a general strike from December 22 to January 11, forcing its eventual withdrawal.
Paz soon launched renewed attacks through new decrees and legislation that raised fuel prices again and stripped away land protections won by smallholders and Indigenous peoples during the 1952 revolution.
This provoked an even larger mass struggle starting May 1, marked by a 50-day general strike and up to 150 road blockades across the country, despite intense state repression and clashes with fascist thugs. The movement rapidly evolved to demand the president’s resignation.
However, on June 19, the leadership of the COB (Bolivian Workers’ Center, the federation of trade union and social movements) reached an agreement with the government, dropping the “Paz Out” demand. While the government conceded on certain points – such as backing down on smallholder land rights – far more could have been won.
Immediately following the agreement, Paz declared a state of emergency under newly passed legislation to crush the remaining resistance. This reflects a persistent pattern across the region: trade union and left leaders entering into compromises because they lack faith in the capacity of the working class or refuse to fight for structural change. We saw this in 2019 when Presidents Piñera in Chile and Moreno in Ecuador were on the ropes, only to be saved by leadership-backed agreements.
Nevertheless, the working class is far from defeated, and there is no room for capitalist stability. We are entering a period of intensified class struggle.
Build a Socialist Alternative
Drawing the necessary political lessons from the betrayals and limitations of recent years is essential to building a political force capable of leading the struggle to a necessary conclusion and putting an end to this nefarious system. Major opportunities to construct the revolutionary socialist left will open up in the coming period.
In Argentina, for example, Milei’s popularity has hit an all-time low, with over 60% viewing him negatively amid soaring inflation, unemployment, corruption scandals and collapsing living standards. The Peronist opposition remains discredited and hesitant, opening up space to its left. Myriam Bregman, a FIT-U (Worker’s Left Front – Unity) member of the Chamber of Deputies, currently holds the highest positive approval rating among major political figures – ahead of the president Milei, former Peronist president Cristina Kirchner, and likely Peronist candidate Axel Kicillof. Bregman polls between 9% and 14% for the presidency.
The question is whether the forces within FIT-U can overcome their internal divisions and turn this opportunity into something more than a left-wing electoral front. However, this highlights the growing potential for socialist ideas across Argentina and the wider region.
