The National People’s Power (NPP) government came to power in 2024 on the back of a series of big promises to the people. This initially came as a shock to the political establishment, who did not think that NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake could become president.
The NPP went into the elections promising to build the economy, solve the problems of the youth, improve school education, and recover the money stolen by the Rajapaksas (the powerful family who dominated Sri Lankan politics from 2005-2022)”. The promises made by the NPP got a strong echo and their candidate Anura Kumara was elected as president in September 2024 with 60% of the votes in the second round.
The 2022 Aragalaya (Struggle) – a mass movement which brought down the government – played a key part in the victory of the NPP. The youth who were the driving force in Aragalaya rejected the status quo and they wanted to turn a new page in politics of the country. The two main slogans of the Aragalaya were “Reject 225” (225 referring to the number of MPs in the Sri Lankan Parliament) and “system change”.
The NPP used these demands in a very shrewd manner. For example, in their election manifesto they called to “get rid of weeds” in parliament and instead “plant flowers to clean the Den (state)”, which got a big echo among the masses during the election. It was seen as the only party with clean hands in the fray. On social media, many young people enthusiastically supported the NPP as the only real alternative. This helped in a big way to lay the basis for the landslide victory of the NPP in the general election.
In the parliamentary election that followed in November 2024, the NPP was given more than 2/3 of the vote. Of the 159 NPP candidates elected that time, all but a few were brand new to national politics. Many had not even been elected to a municipal council before. That is also why people had great faith in them. After the failure of the political establishment to offer anything for working-class and poor people, there was hope that a new generation could deliver change. They expected that these intelligent university-educated people would build the country.
But by now, it has been 2 years since the NPP came to power. They have not been able to fulfill any of their promises. The JVP, a once Maoist party which turned into a Sinhala (Sri Lanka’s Buddhist majority) chauvinist reactionary party but kept “socialist” and class rhetoric, is staying within capitalist and nationalist boundaries.
The NPP’s main slogan was against the corruption of the previous governments. All the mainstream parties face allegations of corruption and most of the time with very credible evidence. However no proper investigation has been done about these allegations and corrupt politicians continue holding their positions without fear.
Economy in the Doldrums
The economic situation is also still very alarming. Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy in 2022, saying that it was unable to pay its debt. The new NPP government followed the same track as its predecessors, turning to the IMF for an agreement and loans. Again, this includes sharp austerity – reduced public spending, cuts in subsidies, increased VAT, plus increased interest rates and currency devaluation. All this is done to pay for debt servicing, by far the largest field of expenditure in the state budget. 60% of state revenues go to paying the interest rates alone.
The extreme austerity temporarily brought inflation down from its peak, 70%, to close to 2%, although in the last two months it has risen again to just over 5% – particularly following the war on Iran. The price of essential food items is increasing day by day, and so is the dollar exchange rate. Accordingly, the price of imported goods has increased greatly. Sri Lanka imports most of its food items, as well as petrol, gas and many other goods. This leaves poor and working-class people in a very difficult situation, with one quarter of the population currently living in poverty according to a recent World Bank survey.
Sri Lanka’s economy is wholly dependent on the IMF. In May, the IMF approved the 5th and 6th tranches of its $ 695m of the Extended Finance Facility – the bailout programme entered into by the right-wing Ranil Wikremasinghe regime (which briefly held power following the fall of the Rajapaksa government) in 2023. Though the JVP-led NPP was opposed to the IMF they are now implementing the agreement to the letter. One of the main conditions of the IMF’s bailout program is a sharp increase in the prices of electricity and fuel. Electricity tariffs were increased last month by 24% and petrol and diesel prices were increased to unbearable levels for the general public. The IMF delayed approving their payments until the government raised these tariffs.
President Anura Kumara, having won the confidence of the capitalist class, has become an obedient servant of the IMF faster than his predecessors Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe. They are implementing the IMF conditions to the letter to continue receiving loans that actually goes to paying foreign and domestic capitalists.
Youth unemployment remains high, at almost 20%, and the education system has been marred by multiple crises. There has been a campaign in the education sector for 6% of national income to be allocated for education, which the NPP committed to support. However in the last budget of the government, less than 2% was allocated for education. The Prime Minister, Harini Amarasuriya, who comes from the higher education sector, championed that demand previously when she was a lecturer at the Open University of Sri Lanka, but has now become a lame duck after assuming the Prime Minister post. Today, there is disappointment among many young people who voted for this government, but they are not yet ready to take to the streets to protest.
Potential for Resistance?
No real recovery has taken place in any of the fields impacting people in the almost two-year period under the NPP’s stewardship. Unrest is brewing among the working class but it has not yet come to surface. Previously it was the JVP-led unions that fired the first shots in this type of situation. The Electricity Board which has been in existence for more than 60 years holding the monopoly in electricity generation and distribution was dismantled by the NPP government under the directions of the IMF and handed over to six government-held companies, with the aim of privatising them at a later stage. Almost all the unions were against this process. The JVP had a strong trade union in the Electricity Board and its leadership was instrumental in keeping their members in check without resorting to any trade union action. Many workers who have been discouraged by their inability to fight this betrayal of the working class opted to retire prematurely under a voluntary retirement scheme.
There have been opportunities for the opposition to call for public protest, including against the electricity tariff hike and fuel price hike, which have affected every strata of the populace. And despite newly-emerged allegations of serious corruption within this government, the opposition is still in disarray and divided to the core – and a number of their leading figures are facing court cases for bribery and corruption when they themselves held important government positions. These parties don’t command adequate public confidence to make a call for mass agitation against the present regime, nor do they offer a real political alternative.
Despite this, the government is already taking steps to suppress opposition from the people in the future. The suppression of the media has begun. Any future left-wing opposition will have to prepare to fight back against further suppression.
A new movement of resistance is needed to truly end corruption, restrictions on free education, and attempts to curtail free health service. Such a movement must also fight to abolish the anti-terrorism laws, call for release of political prisoners, abolish the executive presidency, defend and extend labor and trade union rights and the right to self determination for Tamils to solve the national question. It must be a working class movement armed with a genuine socialist programme to end the rule of capitalism and imperialism, as part of the fight for a socialist world.
