If the midterm Congressional elections were held today, the Republicans would be headed to a huge defeat, losing control of the House of Representatives and perhaps the Senate as well. This is true even with the degree of gerrymandering that has already been engineered in a number of Republican-run states. One indication is that Democrats have flipped 28 state legislature seats from Republican control since Trump took office last January. The GOP majority in the House is also razor thin.
Why is this the case? Trump and the Republicans are presiding over a weak economy that is getting worse, an ICE terror campaign that has led to mass resistance, and a very unpopular war with Iran. The election will inevitably be a referendum on Trump himself who has personally presided over all these disasters. Given that rarely has an American political party been so dominated by a sitting president, the Congressional GOP will have nowhere to hide.
Democrats Have The Advantage
Extensive polling shows how much trouble the Republicans are in. Trump’s overall job approval is at 38% and his disapproval is at 59% according to a mid-March Yahoo/YouGov poll. CBS reports that 60% are against the war with Iran. It is completely unprecedented for a major American military operation to be this unpopular right from the start.
In the same Yahoo/YouGov poll, Trump’s net approval on the economy stood at minus 29%. This is a worse number than during the economic crash at the start of the pandemic in Trump’s first term. When pollsters hone in on the cost of living, the picture gets even worse for Trump. Disapproval of Trump on this question stood at 67% compared to just 26% who approved. This is an astonishing 44-point drop from October 2024 when the Democrats’ gaslighting of the public on the economy—claiming people just didn’t realize how good things were—contributed directly to their defeat.
If the war continues and the price of gas stays high, and if food prices rise because of a sharp rise in fertilizer and transport costs, these poll numbers will get worse. They will definitely get worse if the US goes into recession this year, as seems very possible.
Nor does the deep unpopularity of the Democratic Party and its leadership among its own base change this picture. For all their disgust with Chuck Schumer, the hatred of Trump and his minions among Democrats and large numbers of independents has little precedent in modern times. They will turn out in massive numbers at the polls in November.
But this outcome presumes a somewhat “fair election.” This, however, is absolutely not guaranteed.
Republican Drive To Steal The Midterms
The Republican gerrymandering efforts will clearly not be enough for them to maintain control of Congress, especially the House. This is why Trump is pushing so hard for the so-called SAVE Act, which has passed the House and at the time of writing is stalled in the Senate. This act would require all voters to produce proof of citizenship in person in order to register to vote.
It would disenfranchise millions of people, especially poorer and older Americans without passports or easy access to birth certificates. Married women and trans people who have changed their names will also face a major hurdle to voting. All of this also will constitute an unconstitutional poll tax for those who have to pay for costly documents to prove their citizenship.
As the commentator Jamelle Bouie and others have pointed out, all of this is a direct echo of Jim Crow’s systematic disenfranchisement of Black (and many white) voters:
“For a literacy test, a Jim Crow registrar might ask a white would-be voter to recite the ABCs. She might ask a Black would-be voter, by contrast, to recite the Constitution from memory…This makes the SAVE Act, which would intentionally disenfranchise tens of millions of Americans, not just unconstitutional in its provisions but anti-constitutional in its fundamental contempt for popular sovereignty and rule by the governed.” (NYT, March 18, 2026)
The bill, if brought into law, could have contradictory effects, given that many of Trump’s own supporters could be disenfranchised, especially in rural areas, including by the virtual elimination of mail in ballots. But this is not the real point.
The SAVE Act, by “federalizing” elections which are, according to the Constitution, supposed to be under the control of the states, would bring them under Trump’s direct control. Trump has already threatened to not accept the outcome of the election if they’re not “honest.” What is being shown is how far Trump is prepared to go to prevent losing. Trump’s Justice Department has already sued over 20 states demanding they give over their voter rolls.
As Socialist Alternative pointed out after the 2024 election, Trump 2.0 would pick up where Trump 1.0 left off when he systematically sought to overturn the outcome of the 2020 elections. This culminated in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The Trumpists failed then, but this time they are far better prepared. Trump’s threat to use ICE to “monitor” the polls should be a clear warning.
We Must Prepare
But there is another important difference. In 2020, Socialist Alternative’s call—beginning before the November vote—to mobilize against the attempt to steal the election was met with very little response in most places. People could see the danger, but hoped that Congress, the Justice Department, or the Supreme Court would stop it. And the ruling class at that point did oppose Trump’s coup. Many believed that was the end of his political career, but that was before big sections of the ruling class decided that they agreed with his reactionary agenda more than they disagreed with it and got behind him in 2024.
Now the state apparatus has been purged of those disloyal to Trump. Ordinary working people have no faith that some part or branch of the government will stop this regime. This time a call for mass mobilization, which should come from the labor movement and the left, to defend the democratic rights of the working class and the oppressed, will receive a much different response.
If there is a blatant attempt to steal the elections or tamper with the results—a form of a coup—this could result in a major confrontation in society. In such a circumstance, coming out on the streets in our millions will likely not be enough. It will require mass working-class action on the scale of a nationwide general strike, a national version of what happened in Minneapolis on January 23 that played the key role in forcing Trump and ICE to retreat from the Twin Cities.
As in the fight against Trump generally, the Democrats at best will try to hold things back. They will absolutely oppose decisive action like shutting down airports, ports, schools, retail, manufacturing, and other parts of the economy to stop Trump’s attempt to steal the election. We can place no faith in a party that, despite its differences with Trump, also serves the billionaires. In reality it was the neoliberal policies promoted by the Democrats that reinforced mass inequality and helped pave the way for Trump. Under Bill Clinton they championed free trade deals that hurt American workers. Under Barack Obama, they bailed out the bankers, not working people, after the 2008 crash.
Again, the current situation shows why trying to reform this thoroughly corporate political party is hopeless. To decisively defeat the extremely dangerous threat represented by Trump’s racist, warmongering far-right regime, working people need our own political party.
May 1, when a national coalition, including a number of unions, has endorsed the call for “No Work, No School, No Shopping,” is a key stress test, a day to prepare for the decisive battles to come that can finally bring the authoritarian menace to an end.
