The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that has been raging in Sudan for the past two and a half years is one of the most devastating conflicts in modern times. The United Nations has estimated that 13 million Sudanese have been displaced and up to 150,000 have been killed. Reports of atrocities by both sides are numerous, and many parts of the country, including the capital city of Khartoum, have largely been reduced to ruins.
A new stage has now opened up in the conflict with the RSF’s capture of El Fasher in Darfur in western Sudan. El Fasher had been under siege by the RSF for over 500 days, and its capture means that the RSF now controls all of Darfur and most of western Sudan. While the SAF still has a base in the northeastern region of the country and crucially controls the country’s largest Red Sea port in Port Sudan, their defeat in Darfur means the RSF will move eastwards and further threaten SAF positions.
Violence & Repression As A Basis Of Rule
Videos released after the fall of El Fasher have rightfully produced shock and horror. They have illustrated the incredible brutality of the RSF, who were shown chasing down and massacring civilians in the city. A key policy of the campaign of the RSF and its paramilitary allies in Darfur has been the targeted massacres of non-Arab ethnic groups such as the Masalit.
It’s been estimated that 1500 people were killed in El Fasher in the first three days of the city’s capture by the RSF, a level comparable to the first 24 hours of the Rwandan genocide. Tens of thousands have reportedly fled the city. In response to the massive outcry, RSF leader Hemedti cynically announced that they had created their own investigations committee into reports of atrocities by his forces.
The Sudanese Armed Forces and its allies have also committed atrocious crimes. They have burned villages, performed summary mass executions, and engaged in barbaric acts of chemical warfare with chlorine gas. In January of this year, after recapturing the region of Gezira, SAF forces targeted the Kanabi community, killing dozens and burying them in mass graves they had them dig themselves. Vicious sexual violence has also been carried out by both sides.
Clearly, neither side actually protects the interests of the Sudanese people. The SAF has its base in a military coup against the “transitional” civilian government in 2021 and the RSF in the Janjaweed militia that carried out the genocide in Darfur 2003 onwards. Both rely on terror and will continue to carry out mass violence in any region they occupy, to eliminate perceived opponents of their rule. Both are repressive, bloody regimes that trample on the lives and rights of the masses.
No Trust In Imperialist “Peacebrokers”
The level of massacre could not be undertaken solely based on the resources of Sudanese-based forces. Once again, we see the bloody fingerprints of the global inter-imperialist clash. In particular, the sale and illegal smuggling of gold is used by both sides to fund the slaughter. The control of the commodity is one of the significant motivators of the violence. Concern over the war’s consequences for regional dynamics and its resulting impact on the global imperialist power struggle means Sudan has large elements of a proxy war. Thus both sides feature many foreign sponsors.
The Rapid Support Forces’ ties to imperialism run deep. Its links to the United Arab Emirates in particular have been a major headline since the fall of El Fasher. In 2016-17, RSF troops were used by the UAE in the civil war in Yemen, which established their continued cooperation. The RSF has armed itself to the teeth in large part with Chinese-made weaponry including advanced “Rainbow series” drone technology routed through the UAE. Attacks by these drones have been a significant factor in the RSF’s military momentum since the beginning of the year. A recent report by the UN also found the RSF in possession of British-made small arms originally sold to the UAE. The British government has clearly ignored both British and international laws governing the export of weapons to foreign powers when they are clearly going to be diverted elsewhere. Bosaso airport in Somalia has also reportedly been a forward operating base for supplying the RSF including with mercenaries from as far away as Colombia.
On the other side, just as the Sudanese Armed Forces’ own heinous crimes are receiving much less Western media coverage, so too is their imperialist sponsorship. Turkey’s biggest weapons manufacturer has been one of the key suppliers of SAF small arms. Egypt has provided military training and political cover. Iran has reportedly supplied drones. Saudi Arabia, through Egypt, has been a huge financial backer because of its rivalry with the UAE.
These are not hard and fast alliances; different states have shown their willingness to opportunistically move between the two sides based on different considerations. For instance, Russia has had an element of playing both sides during the conflict. China is Sudan’s largest trading partner and has also organized talks with both sides. And despite their protests now, the European Union funded the RSF in the 2010s as they functioned to violently “discourage” northern African emigration to Europe. Imperialism is extremely motivated to take advantage of the slaughter for its own ends—and its intervention is clearly elevating the level of brutality in the war.
What Is Next?
In mid-September, both the RSF and the SAF rejected feeble ceasefire proposals authored by the group of US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—known as “The Quad.” Given the conflicting interests among Quad members themselves, it’s no wonder why. The proposal itself did little to address key issues like who would be the “legitimate” government of Sudan after any end to the war and did nothing to restrain imperialist powers continuing to arm each side to the teeth. For Trump, it’s both about securing another vague so-called peace agreement and about profits, with plans for an American business delegation to visit. Any deal, if achieved, will be directed by the US and its allies on both sides, and not offer a way forward for the Sudanese masses.
Now with the momentum seemingly behind them, the RSF in particular have less incentive. RSF second-in-command Abdelrahim Dagalo declared in the days after El Fasher, “Our liberation of al-Fashir is the liberation of Sudan, all the way to Port Sudan …. We are coming and we are coming heavy.” And while supposedly agreeing to a US proposal on a ceasefire in early November, the RSF literally led a drone attack on Khartoum the next day.
However, it will not be simple for the RSF to recreate its successes wider afield. It has a much smaller base of support outside of western Sudan and the SAF still has plenty of resources and personnel to continue to mount resistance. A sort of stalemate is likely to emerge in the immediate future, with the RSF in control of the west and the SAF the east under parallel governments—a de facto partition of the country.
Anti-Imperialist Socialism Or Barbarism
Such a stalemate would continue not only the bloodshed but also its associated horrors like mass famine, displacement, and misery. Africa in particular is once again becoming the subject of a mass scramble for resources and influence among the imperialist powers. Sudan shows that imperialism’s influence is no less decisive and odious than during colonialism in the mass killing and repression of the African and Arab masses.
The situation in Sudan is a direct result of the vacuum left in the wake of the mighty revolutionary movement of 2019 which toppled dictator Omar al-Bashir. It was part of a wave of revolutionary struggles that struck fear throughout the ruling classes globally, which was heavily invested in the Middle East and northern Africa. In the absence of a revolutionary government of the workers and the poor to replace Bashir, linked with a struggle against imperialism, neocolonialism and capitalism, other forces seized the initiative—backed by imperialist powers. First the military junta—which was fiercely resisted by the Sudanese masses—and now the belligerent powers of the SAF and the RSF.
This is a war not just for political power but also control of vast amounts of the economic wealth of the country. That is why imperialist powers seek not to replace both the SAF and the RSF at the current time but merely seek a mediation between the two groups. Their main concern is “stabilization” of Sudan not because of the immense suffering of the masses but so that the looting of the country may continue in cooperation with whichever elites may be in place. Such is imperialism’s role in the “developing world” and why Sudan has seen 20 coup attempts since gaining independence in 1956. It’s a struggle for which set of gangsters get to be the lackeys for imperialist plundering. The new era of intensified rivalries and growing popular discontent lead to further turmoil. Overall control of the resources, economic, and political power are at the heart of the motivations for both sides in the civil war. This underlies the weakness of any “peace plans.”
The struggle for an end to the savage violence of the civil war is thus bound up with the struggle for socialist revolution. The Sudanese masses, in particular the working class, played the key role in the revolutionary movement of 2019 and resistance of 2021. It must again find a way to come to the fore and construct an independent path—through trade unions and democratic workers committees similar to those that existed during the revolution. These could serve as the basis for both a mass political movement and organize armed self-defense on a united workers-and-poor basis to protect all communities and push back the army and militias.
Power cannot be trusted to any form of capitalist government. The struggle to end the war must be linked to a political struggle for both the seizure of political power and to put the vast majority of the economic wealth of the country under democratic control and management of the Sudanese masses. Any other governmental model will not result in liberation; imperialism and its local lackeys will not allow it to be so. Nor can it be ultimately successful based on action in Sudan alone. It must also be linked to a struggle against imperialist intervention (military, political, and economic) across the region and continent, waged by the working class worldwide.
