This document is a slightly abridged version of what was passed by the 2025 Socialist Alternative US Convention to guide our work in the coming period.
Trump 2.0 has been a political earthquake, leaving no corner of US or world politics untouched. In less than one year, Trump and the right wing have unleashed a deluge of attacks on oppressed people and the working class including terror against immigrant workers, dehumanizing measures aimed at trans people, devastating austerity, and the decimation of a substantial section of the unionized public sector. Congress, the courts, and leading US capitalists, as well as most governments internationally, are forced to accept his course. US capitalism, with the grotesque Donald Trump at its helm, is in a state of profound decay. The developments in the United States can only be understood in the context of global processes and the new era of capitalism, which has been an ongoing topic of discussion within ISA.
These monumental attacks on workers and the oppressed have already provoked mass protests, and more struggle is bound to emerge. Trump’s approval ratings have hovered at a record low since June, only slightly higher than the lowest point during his first term, with approval on economic issues plummeting. At the same time, the Democratic Party is even less popular than the Republicans, reflecting their paralysis and the profound disillusionment of their base. But despite broad dissatisfaction from the majority of Americans, this does not in itself translate into Trump’s agenda being blocked. In fact, the opposite has been the case. Trump’s parliamentary Bonapartist regime is consolidating its power.
This consolidation into a Bonapartist regime is inherently contradictory, and Trump’s position on the world stage and within United States capitalism has to be analyzed through these contradictions. Despite his strongman approach, Trump, like other leaders of the ruling class, is not in control of capitalism. Recent elections reflect key developments in consciousness with Trump losing hardened support from some sections of his base, protests energizing people against his agenda, and renewed excitement around the Democratic Party through the left Democrats. As events are likely to further undermine Trump’s authority, especially under pressure from social upheaval, sections of the ruling class will seek out openings to either move against Trump or reign him in on some issues when possible. While unlikely to result in the total collapse of his regime, this could have a serious impact on struggle, consciousness, and opportunities for our party. The working class is the decisive factor in taking down Trump.
At the same time, any provocation might push Trump toward doubling down even further on the consolidation of his authoritarian regime. While he currently comfortably operates with very minimal effective opposition, in part due to fear of retribution from his regime, any real threat to his rule could further accelerate the repressive state crackdown on dissent and democratic rights.
The right wing is already on the offensive, emboldened further by the assassination of Charlie Kirk. This was on full display at Kirk’s memorial service, which could more accurately be described as an extreme-right, Christian, white nationalist rally sponsored by the US government. What is almost as striking as the speed and scale of Trump and the right’s attacks, is the extremely weak state of working-class organization and leadership in the face of this onslaught. Along with the impact of defeats over the past five years, this has led to disorientation among a large section of the left and the workers movement. This can set the movement back for a period, if there is further consolidation by the regime and there continues to be no effective resistance. However, the landscape of US society is extremely unstable, polarized, and the basis is being laid for big explosions at some point, which will present opportunities for rebuilding working-class organization and our revolutionary forces. The guiding concept of the dual task will take on increased importance for our tendency in the coming historic openings for struggle, solidarity, and socialism.
This perspectives document aims to outline an overall trajectory of key processes unfolding in US society today and the development of working class consciousness and movements. In the context of a rapidly changing objective situation, this document and discussion at the National Convention are an opportunity to draw out key trends and arm the organization to respond flexibly to unexpected developments. Perspectives should always function as a guide to action for a Marxist party, to help prepare our organization for the period ahead and potential openings for the development of the class struggle and our forces.
Global Context & the New Era
The context of domestic developments is the new era in the history of global capitalism. This paradigm shift is rooted in the sharpening inter-imperialist rivalry between the US and China, a process that was already underway in the early 2010s and reflected in the rise of Xi Jinping and Obama’s pivot to Asia. The neoliberal economic model of “free markets” and very low barriers to the mobility of capital then became increasingly unsustainable as a result.
But while the inter-imperialist conflict was critical, another factor in undermining the era of neoliberal globalization was the growing global youth-centered uprising against inequality, lack of opportunity, corruption, repression of democratic rights, and national and other forms of oppression. In some countries this became a more general working-class upheaval. This included the “Arab Spring,” the movements against austerity in Southern Europe, Occupy, and the truly massive wave of revolts from 2019-21, including BLM. It is estimated that between 2010-20 there was more mass protest than at any other point in human history. While we know that the lack of a clear socialist working-class program and democratic structures put major restrictions on how far these movements could go, they posed a major challenge to the ruling class nevertheless. This contributed directly to the reactionary, frequently authoritarian direction of ruling classes globally including the promotion of nationalism, militarism, and the pushing back of gains made by oppressed layers in society.
But even now, the ruling classes globally have not been able to quell the fires of rebellion because the underlying issues have not been resolved, and in fact are getting worse. Late August and September saw dramatic developments in Asia with massive youth-centered revolts in Indonesia and Nepal, which were fundamentally about economic inequality and the privileges of the elite. They are clearly a continuation of the revolts in other Asian countries in recent years, including Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, where the movements took down governments, but in the absence of revolutionary workers’ organisations and a clear program, were ultimately replaced by new capitalist governments.
There is also massive political polarization including in Western Europe and Latin America. Far-right parties are surging in the polls in Germany, the UK, and France. The march of over 100,000 in London, led by extreme-rightwinger Tommy Robinson, is a strong warning. At the same time, the new left party led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana has huge potential support if its launch can be achieved, and the streetfighting right can be pushed back with a determined approach and a massive mobilization of the labor movement. A fighting Die Linke, linked to the power of the working class, is critical to pushing back the AfD. In France, there have been mass mobilizations led by the left and the unions against Macron’s attempts to reduce massive budget deficits on the backs of working people. These processes of political polarization, struggle, and a new wave of reformism will continue.
Despite the ceasefire, the lasting impacts of the genocide in Gaza will go on. This is true for both the Palestinian masses, for whom the new deal cements their homeland as a brutal imperialist stomping ground, but also in its effects on consciousness and politics internationally. The international movement against the war, which took a qualitative step forward with the two general strikes in Italy and the mass protests in solidarity with the Sumud flotilla, was a real factor in pressuring Netanyahu to accept the deal, as was the increasing isolation of Netanyahu’s regime both domestically and globally, especially after Israel’s strike on Qatar. The twelve-day Israel/Iran war, which the US briefly but decisively entered, foreshadows the wider inter-imperialist military conflicts to come.
In Africa, US imperialism is attempting to get control of the natural resources in Congo and Sudan as part of its fierce competition with China, under the cover of “peace deals.” In the Sahel region, especially Niger and Burkina Faso, military coups have been directed against French imperialism, but instead established links with Putin’s Russia. African countries have also seen youth revolts and protests against the stranglehold of the IMF, imperialism, and governments implementing extreme austerity.
Meanwhile, the climate disaster goes on with very little slowing it down, as Trump actively seeks to undermine alternative energy production or any official involvement in climate research. Surface ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic and North Pacific are reaching record levels, a potential tipping point for a great deal of marine life that will escalate extreme weather events.
Trump has succeeded in getting his way in the global trade war, but only up to a point. Tariffs were presented as the way to rebalance trade and bring manufacturing back to the US. That is not happening on a significant scale. The main aim was never solely “rebalancing” trade or reindustrialization, but also the raw assertion of power and economic extortion. The extortion tactics can work up to a point, but in the short term, US imperialism, as we have said, is being weakened. Failing to get his way elsewhere, Trump appears to be looking for easier targets including bringing in the Navy to shoot alleged Venezuelan “narco terrorists.”
Despite the massive military display in Beijing recently with Xi, Putin, and Kim on the reviewing stand, and the chaos caused by Trump, Chinese imperialism has not been able to take advantage of the openings provided to seize the initiative in the inter-imperialist conflict, as its economy is being sucked further into a deflationary spiral. The contradictions on both sides will continue to accumulate.
Of course to address the problems his trade war has helped to worsen, Trump’s gone harder after the Fed, one bourgeois institution that still maintains more independence. He has also sought to suppress inconvenient economic data, a move directly from the authoritarian playbook internationally. In general, Trump borrows much from authoritarian leaders such as Hungary’s Orban and Turkey’s Erdogan, and we should follow the development of those regimes.
Meanwhile, Trump’s move for the government to take a big stake in Intel is in line with the new era of increasing direct state intervention in the economy, or, as Gillian Tett of the Financial Times calls it, “patriotic capitalism.” This state-directed, interventionist trend is also inseparable from the pre-war direction of the ruling class, promoting militarism and massive military buildup. All of the above is part and parcel of the new capitalist epoch.
Economy
As the National Committee explained in its July US perspectives update, the overall outlook for the world economy is bleak, with the lowest level of growth at the moment (except for the pandemic downturn) since the financial crisis in 2008. The World Bank said that this was due to “heightened trade tension and policy uncertainty” (read Trump’s trade war) and went on to say, “if forecasts for the next two years materialize, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s.” The OECD has now upgraded growth somewhat for this year to 3.2%, but they also say the full effect of tariffs is yet to be felt, warning of “significant risks to the economic outlook.”
The Chinese economy, for example, is continuing to slow and the CCP regime has been unable to find a way out of the deflationary trap, the opposite but linked problem to the inflationary trend that is still at work in the US economy.
The US economy is sluggish with overall growth for the year projected by the Federal Reserve at 1.6%, not a recession but a significant slowdown from the 2.8% growth of 2024. But this is only the headline number. It is clear that the economy is slowing down on various fronts with a whole series of problems piling up which could spill over into a major crisis in coming months. These include a wave of job cuts, ongoing volatility in the bond market, auto loan defaults leading to bankruptcies for lenders, a downturn in manufacturing and massive levels of personal indebtedness. In this context, a rapidly growing stock market points to an enormously widening gap between speculative markets and production. There are many other financial and production trends that point to deep structural weaknesses in the US economy, which are bound to provoke a recession sooner rather than later.
The biggest indicator of trouble is the job market. A recent revision showed that 911,000 fewer jobs were added to the economy in the year through March than previously reported. Since then it’s gotten worse. Overall the number of people unemployed (7.24 million) now exceeds the number of jobs available (7.18 million) for the first time since April 2021.
A number of bourgeois economists now say that we’ve entered a “labor recession.” Widespread reports now confirm what people know from direct experience, that finding a job has become a lot harder. This is especially true for young people, including college graduates. The unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds is now 10.5%. Unemployment among Black workers is also rising and now stands at 7.5%.
This has led to the phenomenon described as “job hugging” where workers stay in their jobs at all costs, as opposed to the “great resignation” of 2021-22 when workers felt they had more leverage in a tight job market and in many cases were emboldened to fight for higher wages and better conditions.
Manufacturing output has shrunk for six straight months showing the complete hollowness of Trump’s claims to bring manufacturing back to the US on any kind of large scale. Homebuilding is at a 2½-year low because of very low demand, which is highly unlikely to be decisively affected by the Fed’s quarter percent lowering of interest rates. For most people, the problem is the sheer unaffordability of buying a home. In the mid 1970s, a home cost twice the average family income; now it’s well over five times the average family income.
Inflation has also not gone away despite high interest rates. Consumer inflation stood at 2.9% in August. Tariffs are a big reason for this, with companies passing on the higher cost of imports. In general, higher tariffs mean US importers will raise consumer prices after paying the tariffs to maintain profitability. Yale University’s Budget Lab estimates that Americans overall face an average tariff rate of 17.4% on imports, the highest since 1935 in the last era of deglobalization and protectionism, translating into an extra $2,300 in costs for households in 2025. It is also useful to look at cumulative inflation, which is an important part of how working people see the impact of inflation in their lives. For example, groceries are 29% more expensive since the pandemic.
This means that the economy is entering stagflation territory—low growth combined with inflation—for the first time since the 1970s. This is a very challenging balancing act for central banks like the Fed. Trump wants a very significant drop in interest rates, which Powell has resisted, and would likely push inflation higher while temporarily spurring growth.
The other important feature is the worsening of inequality, with more discussion about a “two speed” economy with affluent (and mostly older) people doing quite well and younger people—exposed to the “double whammy of high student debt and low entry-level hiring” (CNN)—and those earning less than $100,000 seeing things get steadily worse. This is also before the full awfulness of key provisions in Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” are implemented and millions are cut from food stamps and Medicaid rolls. For the bottom 50% of families, the median retirement savings is zero.
The prospect of a financial crisis remains very real. There continue to be bubble features in private equity generally. However, the most concentrated expression of the problem is in AI where despite literally hundreds of billions being poured in ($320 billion this year alone by the key tech companies), there are generally no profitable returns. The Large Language Models which have fueled AI’s speculative growth may be hitting barriers to further improvement because of inherent limitations of the model (the “scaling” problem).
The likely bursting of this bubble doesn’t mean that the technology will simply disappear, though many firms may. In the end one or several firms will dominate and, as with the dot-com bubble in the late ‘90s, after a massive bloodbath, the survivors will keep developing this technology which will eventually become profitable. But in the short term, this will have a serious effect on an already weakened economy. As in every capitalist economic crisis, it is the masses of ordinary working people who will pay for the system’s bust, which can create an opening to propagandize against the wastefulness of capitalist anarchy. Importantly, it can also lay the basis for major social upheaval.
Other issues are posed relating to AI, including the terrible environmental costs and the potential for large scale job destruction. We also have to acknowledge and be conscious of the building class-hatred of many working people towards AI and the associated Data Centers which, under capitalism, will guzzle water, raise electric bills, damage the environment, and bring about layoffs. We should watch for openings in struggles against the construction of these AI data centers. As poor and rural communities continue to be targeted by tech companies, we should support the pushback and help to sharpen “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) attitudes into a more class-conscious understanding of the processes at play.
Our attitude, however, is not to simply oppose AI but to pose how this new technology can be really made to work for ordinary people as part of a transition to sustainable energy, which is only possible within an economic system based on the democratic public ownership and planning of the means of production.
Another major issue with real economic repercussions is the effect of Trump’s regime of terror against foreign-born and especially undocumented workers and their families. This appears to have reduced immigration to levels not seen since the 1960s with more people now leaving the country than entering. This is not just because of ICE raids, deportations, and the massive military buildup which has shut the Southern border. Whole categories of visas have also been severely restricted and programs have been ended under which hundreds of thousands from countries including Haiti and Venezuela were legally permitted to stay in the US. Many people are now also simply leaving before they are deported, fearing the horrific conditions of detention centers or even the chance of being deported to a third country that they are not from.
Without immigration, the US population would almost certainly fall and clearly whole sectors of the economy would be severely affected. The ruling class is broadly in favor of maintaining a certain level of immigration but also has long sought for the flow to be controlled through a much more serious border control. We are extremely unlikely to see the return to a policy of virtually zero immigration between the 1920s and ‘60s after the massive immigration of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. From the 1920s to the ‘60s, however, the population kept growing due to a high birth rate unlike today. So, for large sections of the ruling class, even though Trump has bent the stick too far in the direction of curbing immigration they are too afraid to oppose him in a serious way. The silver lining for them is that this may, ultimately, fulfill their desire for more-restricted immigration flows.
From a political point of view, the American ruling class has also used anti-immigrant sentiment as a divide-and-rule tool for the past two centuries. Today in country after country, ruling classes are backing anti-immigration forces and policies as part of their reactionary nationalist turn.
Consciousness & Polarization
The idea that something is seriously wrong with our society is far from a controversial opinion in the US today. The causes and solutions to the problems are, of course, under massive debate. The end of the neoliberal era and the storming back of capitalist nationalism has changed conditions. It has turbocharged political polarization, a key feature in the US and internationally, which is reflected in both the rise of right populism as well as support for left-wing ideas.
According to Oxfam, the wealth of the world’s ten richest men (eight of whom live in the US) grew by almost $100 million a day on average in 2024. This winter will mark six years since the start of the COVID pandemic—a phenomenon of mass death and economic disruption. The real figure for deaths caused by the pandemic may be between 19 and 36 million as reported by Our World in Data based at Oxford University. The total number of deaths in the US, the highest official total of any country, was 941,000 as of March 2022. The blatant mishandling from regimes around the world, the rotten spectacle of vaccine nationalism and corporate profiteering, and social isolation and dislocation deepened already existing political polarization and skepticism towards institutions. Many political implications of the pandemic are still very much live issues in US society today, including in the debacle taking place around vaccine recommendations by the CDC under RFK Jr.
A Gallup poll this year found that only 37% of Americans have a positive view of big business, down from 58% in 2012, which has also been reflected in rising support for unions over the past decade. The mass discussion about the assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was a window into an important aspect of mass consciousness in US society today. Polling found that 41% of voters 18-29 found the killing acceptable, illustrating the deep hostility toward the US healthcare system and billionaires, combined with the total lack of consciousness on how to effectively fight back.
Confidence in existing institutions and establishment political parties has been dramatically undermined. The collapse of the political “center,” globally and in the US, has been fueled by a rejection of status quo politics and a grappling for something different, whether that is a return to some idealized time when America was “great,” or a search for a different way of organizing society reflected in support for anti-capitalist ideas (only 54% view capitalism favorably, even less than the previous low of 56% in 2018 during the peak of the Bernie/Squad era). Desperation about the state of the political system along with deepening polarization has also led to an increase in political violence. According to a June 2025 YouGov poll, 40% of Americans think a civil war is very or somewhat likely in the next 10 years.
Polarization and lack of confidence in existing institutions are particularly important features of consciousness among young people in the US today, mirroring the main trends in society more broadly. According to the Harvard Youth Poll from Spring 2025, just 15% of young people aged 18-29 believe the country is heading in the right direction. Discontent and anxiety about the future as well as isolation are significant features. The same poll found that less than half of young Americans feel a sense of community, and just 17% say they’re deeply connected to one. Instability in society as well as tenuous education, job, and housing prospects, will continue to drive this sense of alienation and isolation.
There are indications that the long-term decline of Christianity in the US has stabilized, and there is a clear growth of the Christian right. The Christian right and Christian nationalism, which has gained adherents particularly among young white men, are particularly dangerous and actively promote patriarchal views on gender and sexuality. Gen Z is more likely to attend church than millennials, in part an expression of the vacuums in society for community, especially among young people, and for understanding the world’s crises. We need more discussion on how to address these developments in a way that understands the wide variety of Christian expression in US society, including more progressive variants and the unique role it plays in many working-class Black and immigrant communities, while being clear about the way religion is being used by the right as cover for their ideological offensive.
While polarization is the overarching process, there is not an equal balance between right and left polarization; today, the right holds the momentum in US society. This is due to the failures and betrayals of the left in the past period, combined with the right-wing ideological offensive by the ruling class, integral to the new period which we have explained. In this context, gains in consciousness that were achieved through struggle can be chipped away. For example, support for labor unions dropped sharply over the past few years among Republicans, with 41% saying they approve of unions, down from 49% in 2024 and 56% in 2022.
But while the ruling class’ rightward shift has affected society broadly, it has done so unevenly, as can be seen in the widening “gender gap” with young men disproportionately radicalizing to the right and young women disproportionately in a left-wing direction.
Struggles around oppression were an important feature of the past decade which impacted consciousness in very positive ways overall, despite the complications of identity politics and other postmodern ideas. Defeats and setbacks for these movements along with the right-wing backlash against them, for example the defeat of BLM, overturn of Roe, and counter-revolution against #MeToo, were part of what fueled support for Trump in 2024 even after he was defeated electorally in the 2020 election.
While the Democrats essentially campaigned on maintaining the status quo, Trump and the right leaned hard on divide-and-rule rhetoric targeting “enemies” and “outsiders.” Now a section of the far right—including known sexual abusers, white supremacists, and people with sympathies or ties to fascist groups—are part of Trump’s administration. This normalization from above of reactionary ideas in US society will drive increased racism, sexism, homophobia, and transphobia in society as a whole, while at the same time sowing the seeds for future fightbacks.
Trump’s 2024 election victory relied significantly on setbacks in consciousness on oppression. Young people, between witnessing increased misogyny and indicative subcultures such as “tradwives,” were perhaps least surprised on election night. That said, the steps forward in consciousness over recent decades, in particular through movements against sexism (Slutwalks, #MeToo) and against racism (Day without an Immigrant, Black Lives Matter), have not been erased. For example, today 64% of US adults think racism against Black people is widespread in the US, which is the same percentage as in 2021. Particular layers of society, crucial for Marxists, continue to be polarized around these issues and want to fight back against the offensive of the right.
While our main orientation at this stage is not to those who have voted for Trump, it is important for perspectives to chart out the processes taking place and identify where further cracks, and even outright fractures, can develop in Trump’s base. For Trump’s wider base, an anti-establishment mood and economic concerns were key factors driving support, but these voters also accepted or embraced elements of his reactionary program including anti-trans and anti-immigrant ideas which are diametrically opposed to working-class solidarity and struggles.
However, the fact that a significant crisis within Trump’s base is the scandal around the release of the Epstein files—rage at sexual abuse by the rich and powerful—is one example of the contradictory consciousness within Trump’s base. An August poll from UMass Amherst found that 47% of 2024 Trump voters do not think he is handling the issue well, and 26% of that group indicated they would not vote for Trump if they had the opportunity to vote again in the 2024 election. This is just one snapshot and does not indicate a clear shift to the left, but it is a signal that some sections of Trump voters could likely be won to a left-wing program if a clear alternative were presented.
A minority and more hardened section of Trump’s base is deeply committed to nationalist, racist, sexist, and transphobic ideas, and is bought into conspiracy theories. The political spectacle of Kirk’s memorial, as well as the reports that over 100,000 students reached out to start Turning Point USA chapters in the days following Kirk’s killing, are indications that a section of Trump’s base that has been more passive is being mobilized into action. This polarization could be particularly sharp among young people.
For the past decade, even when the left had the initiative, we warned about the danger of right-wing ideas growing if the left and labor movement failed to mount a real challenge. Just in the past months there have been a number of examples of opportunities for a strong left to take back some of this initiative, but in most cases it has been the extreme right filling the vacuum.
The decisive factor that can lead to shifts in mass consciousness is struggle. Since Trump took office, polls indicate substantial shifts in attitudes around immigration. A Quinnipiac poll in June found that 64% of voters prefer giving most undocumented immigrants in the United States a pathway to legal status rather than deporting them, which is up from 55% in December 2024. Even if an actual material victory isn’t won initially in a movement (the protest in LA and national protests which followed have not slowed the deportation machine), it can plant the seeds for struggle later on if qualitative steps forward are taken in the movement.
The whip of reaction, in response to factors including the rising right, an increase in reactionary ideas in society, and repression, is pushing an important section of society towards left-wing conclusions. The refusal by the Democrats to put up a real fight, especially in the context of increased expectations on them to do so, has further exposed them and undermined their support, an extremely positive development for Marxists. At this stage, the primary factor limiting the development of a mass, organized challenge to right-wing attacks is the lack of leadership for the left and the workers movement. The surge of new energy into Die Linke in Germany and the launch of a new left party in Britain are important indications of the type of enthusiasm that would be generated in the US around left politics if a clear lead were given.
Instead, a substantial section of left-wing workers and youth are trapped by a serious sense of demoralization as they are bombarded by what feels like endless bad news and a lack of a coherent fightback. Demoralization is a dominant feature of consciousness among the broad “left” of society at this juncture (the tens of millions who consider themselves progressive or left-leaning). This includes many who participated in the Bernie campaigns and the Black Lives Matter rebellion but have dropped out of any active political involvement, though teenagers who were too young to actively participate in those movements are less negatively impacted by those defeats.
The Zohran campaign is a small taste of the potential that exists; however, while constrained in the confines of the fundamentally hostile Democratic Party, this will hit its limits. Today many newly radicalizing young people lack direct experience with the Bernie Sanders phenomenon and the failure of recent attempts to reform or takeover the Democratic Party. The weakness of coherent working-class organization has meant that the lessons from this experience have been lost for a significant section of the movement, despite the fact that, somewhat ironically, Bernie Sanders continues to be the most well-known and popular progressive politician in US society. While an important section of workers and youth have drawn conclusions about the dead-end nature of the Democratic Party, these developments show how the experience of going through the “school of reformism” is far from a linear process.
The role of US imperialism in propping up the Israeli state’s genocidal campaign in Gaza as well as brutal repression of the anti-war movement by both corporate parties has also had a deeply radicalizing impact on an important section of young people today. While a broad section of society is disoriented in the face of the Trump regime’s attacks, there is an important section of young people who are increasingly open to explicitly revolutionary ideas having drawn more wide-ranging conclusions about the bankruptcy of capitalism. In the absence of a coherent strategy to oppose the rising right, ultra-left ideas can also gain ground especially among young people desperately searching for a path forward, which we must be prepared to challenge.
Trump, Authoritarianism & the Right
The Republican party has been comprehensively taken over by the MAGA wing. Few Republican politicians dare to cross Trump, and those who do are retiring or are facing well-funded MAGA primary challenges. Political polarization has eroded the base for traditional Republicanism to the extent that it doesn’t exist, at least not to any significant degree. Elon Musk, in his messy break-up with Trump, pledged to start a new right-wing party, but there isn’t any evidence that he’s pursued this in a serious way. In fact, Musk has continued to fund Republican candidates and PACs as well as encouraging extreme-right forces in Europe, and Musk and Trump were seen conversing at Charlie Kirk’s memorial. The trajectory appears to be for a make-up between Musk and MAGA, although a bigger crisis in Trump’s base could change that.
Faultlines within MAGA that surfaced around the “Big Beautiful Bill,” the Ukraine war, and briefly, but dramatically in the run-up to the Trump administration’s bombing of Iran have largely been smoothed over without any kind of organized rebellion from the Republican base. But while they may have moved to the background, the memory of these betrayals, as they are perceived by a section of Trump’s base, has not faded completely and can resurface in the form of accumulated discontent when further cracks develop in the future.
Although anger at the economic situation has not yet taken shape in a tangible way among Trump voters, polls show that there is mass dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy. Trump and the Republicans may still pay a high political price for a “perfect storm” that is brewing on healthcare access and affordability that is likely to play out over 2026, with the cuts to Medicaid in the BBB, expiring pandemic-era ACA enhanced subsidies, and rising pharmaceutical prices.
It is significant that hard-right figures like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, were, even if briefly, outspoken in their opposition to the US entering the war with Iran. This reflects that a wing of MAGA is highly impatient with anything except a laser focus on countering Chinese imperialism in the Western Pacific. This wing of MAGA also plays to the opposition within the base (as well as within society more generally), to putting American “boots on the ground” after the disastrous experience of the US “War on Terror.” The US ruling class will have to reckon with this obstacle to their ability to deploy US troops when and where they want as the inter-imperialist rivalry continues to ratchet up, with more and wider wars an inevitable feature.
The most visible flare-up within the MAGA base has been the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, which Trump has still not been able to completely extinguish, and, as explained above, shows the contradictory nature of many Trump supporters’ consciousness. Trump may yet be able to suppress the furor within his base, but this is not guaranteed. The fact that far-right figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nancy Mace, and Lauren Boebert have been on the front lines of the battle around the Epstein files is very striking. The potential outlines for an even further-right split from Trump exist and should be a stark warning to the left.
The Trump regime’s authoritarian power grab has accelerated in the days since the assassination of Charlie Kirk, which may well become a “before and after moment” for the far right. The escalation can be seen in a number of examples including the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel (who was subsequently reinstated after 1.7 million people cancelled their Disney-owned services in reaction), the comments from JD Vance encouraging a mass doxxing campaign against political opponents, and Trump’s comments that critical media coverage of him is illegal: “They’ll take a great story and they’ll make it bad,” [referring to media outlets.] “See, I think that’s really illegal.” All of this points to a qualitatively new level of repression directed from the absolute top of the capitalist state.
With the extreme right having a real confidence boost in the aftermath of the Kirk shooting, the prospect of far-right groups like the Proud Boys or Oath Keepers coming out onto the streets to intimidate and harass immigrant workers, or other targets of the regime, could be posed. The hardcore Trump supporters who stormed the Capitol on January 6 have now all been freed. However, many right-wing extremists are now integrated into the Trump regime and the state apparatus, and may not feel it’s necessary to mobilize on the streets given their influence in the halls of power. They would also be leery of an extra-parliamentary force not under their direct control, though in certain circumstances this calculus could change. As we have explained, this is a key difference between fascism and Bonapartism. Trotsky outlined that the ruling class will turn to mobilizing a mass fascist movement “at the moment that the ‘normal’ police and military resources of the bourgeois dictatorship, together with their parliamentary screens, no longer suffice to hold society in a state of equilibrium.” That is not the case today, with the parliamentary Bonapartist bourgeois state apparatus clearly serving as the main repressor of the working class and struggle.
Adjacent to the extreme right, groups like Turning Point USA are likely to see a hardening of further-right wing politics as well as growth in numbers in the short term. While these forces may not physically intimidate people in the streets, they can still weaponize right-wing orthodoxy in universities and elsewhere in broader society, run doxxing campaigns against left wing people, and be a training ground as well as a reserve pool for far-right functionaries and politicians.
The regime is using the Kirk assassination as a justification to target the left and the liberal establishment, with Vance and Trump commenting on plans for federal investigations into organizations suspected of “hate speech,” such as the Ford Foundation and George Soros’ Open Society Foundation. Trump is determined that the Republicans hold on to both houses of Congress in the 2026 midterms, and a crackdown on the broader Democratic Party establishment/NGO ecosystem is now an integral part of the plan. However, sections of the far left are also in the administration’s crosshairs, not because they represent a significant threat to the right at present, but because they will need to attack some actual far-left groups as they go on the warpath against liberal organizations for being “extremist.” A recent letter from the House Oversight Committee to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asks the latter to investigate and potentially seize assets from far-left groups that are receiving funding from CCP-linked multi-millionaire Neville Roy Singham. A list of these groups include the Party of Socialism and Liberation, Students for Justice in Palestine, and the Palestinian Youth Movement.
Trump’s significant unpopularity is a factor in his accelerating consolidation of authoritarian power. Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped by 7-8 percentage points over the course of his term, and while his lowest ratings are around economic issues, he has low ratings even on his signature issues of crime and immigration. Despite his unpopularity, however, there is very little standing in the way of his power grab. As we have consistently warned, neither the courts nor the Democrats can save us, and this is not just an agitational slogan but a perspective. In many cases, federal judges have blocked the administration’s attacks on federal workers, immigrants, and trans people, but the Supreme Court has essentially greenlit Trump’s power grab. The “shadow docket,” or unsigned decisions made without any oral arguments or written opinions, has been the Court’s key tool for pushing through the Trump regime’s agenda. The Supreme Court’s use of the “shadow docket,” along with the Court’s willingness to overturn precedent, is an example of the state increasingly concentrating power in the hands of the executive branch, with SCOTUS becoming more subservient. Without written opinions or established legal reasoning for Supreme Court decisions, lower courts will not be able to rule on cases and thus will more frequently simply defer to the Court directly. In turn, the Supreme Court’s tendency is to increase the power of the presidency and the executive branch more broadly. Recently Trump has had an impressive winning streak on Supreme Court decisions though it was interrupted when the independence of the Fed was at stake.
ICE is being supersized to a 30,000-strong force under Trump’s control. It is effectively his private army, the second-largest internal security force in the world, after the Chinese national police. The National Guard, alongside ICE and other federal law enforcement agencies, has been deployed to terrorize especially immigrants and Black working-class communities in Washington DC, with Trump threatening to expand the operation to other cities. Republican-sponsored legislation moving through Congress was recently amended to remove a provision that would give the Secretary of State the unilateral right to revoke US citizens’ passports. Apparently this measure went too far for some Republicans in Congress, but the fact that it was considered at all points to how far the administration wants to go in terms of repression.
No institution of bourgeois democracy appears to be safe from the Trump onslaught. The regime has taken a multi-pronged approach to existing capitalist institutions, mortally weakening or eliminating some so that they cannot pose an independent challenge to Trump, and re-tooling others to satisfy the needs of the ruling class in this period. Federal government positions that have traditionally been considered non-partisan are being purged in the FBI and Justice Department if they had anything to do with January 6 prosecutions. Even Trump appointees aren’t safe if they don’t deliver. US Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia and Trump appointee Erik Siebert was forced out after trying but failing to bring cases against Trump foes Letitia James and James Comey, as part of a campaign of retribution.
The renaming of the Department of Defense to the Department of War and Pete Hegseth’s focus on restoring the “warrior ethos” to the US military are just two examples of the ramping up of nationalist war propaganda. But the Trump administration’s moves are not limited to symbolism. In May, they demanded that the military eliminate 20% of its four-star generals, on top of the targeted firings of a number of other officers including a high-ranking Black official and a disproportionate number of women. Hegseth’s very unusual summoning of hundreds of military generals to a meeting—which according to an anonymous military official interviewed by CNN was “about getting the horses into the stable and whipping them into shape”—is an indication that more changes could be coming to shape the US military to be more malleable and loyal to the Trump regime.
Universities are being brought to heel by Trump. UCLA is facing $1.2 billion in fines related to the UCLA pro-Palestine encampment protests of last year, following massive fines along with major concessions to the Trump administration that were agreed to by several elite universities. Among many other reactionary provisions, the administration is demanding UCLA end its provision of trans healthcare as part of ballooning attacks on trans people. UC Berkeley administration shared names and personal information of at least 160 students and staff with the federal government due to “alleged antisemitic incidents.” Through coercion, the Trump administration’s clear goal is to impose its reactionary ideology on the universities and to force them to take a far harsher stance on their own student activists than has been the norm for the last 50 years. This process is an integral part of getting the country onto pre-war footing, one which began during the campus occupation crackdowns under Biden and is now rapidly accelerating.
The attacks on universities are also part of a broader attack on the scientific establishment as a whole. Many billions of dollars have been cut from grants awarded by the National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation, and the Supreme Court ruled against a lawsuit brought by scientists to stop the cuts. Trump is not just steering energy away from renewables and towards fossil fuels, but is attempting to more systematically undermine the science behind climate policy. The proposed 2026 budget would close four key NOAA observatories, disrupting decades of greenhouse gas monitoring. The EPA proposed a repeal of the Endangerment Finding, which established that greenhouse gases endanger human health and which underpins most GHG-limiting measures over the past 15 years. The Trump administration is attempting to make use of the deep skepticism among sections of the population towards the elites and existing institutions like the US healthcare system, to undermine them or in some cases rework them to the liking of the extreme right.
The fact that major sections of the bourgeoisie, including its most powerful section, Big Tech, have turned to a Bonaparte, and a Bonaparte as erratic and undisciplined as Trump, reflects the fragility of the system, and the level of political crisis in US society. US imperialism needed a way to break through the political logjam and whip both the working class and ruling class into shape—with both right populism, repression, and coercion—for more serious conflict with Chinese imperialism. Trump has projected, through the regime’s policies, especially on foreign policy, trade, domestic spending, and immigration enforcement, a highly muscular nationalism. The regime is taking a slash-and-burn approach to the laws and regulations that protect working-class and oppressed people and the environment. It is disciplining the working class through the terror of ICE, historic attacks on unions, and the deployment of the National Guard.
In less than a year, there has been major erosion of bourgeois democracy as it existed in the neoliberal era. The parliamentary Bonapartist regime in the US, which has frequently gone around Congress rather than attempt to dissolve it, is an intermediate phenomenon between two poles of bourgeois democracy and outright dictatorship. Because we have decisively entered a new era of inter-imperialist conflict, nationalism, and war, there is no perspective for a return to the “normal” bourgeois democracy of the previous period. An outright dictatorship (understood as the elimination of bourgeois democracy) is also not on the cards in the short term. This intermediate phenomenon, which can include very significant anti-democratic crackdowns, is therefore likely to remain in place for a period. In the National Committee’s last perspectives statement we outlined three variants for the broad trajectory of the Trump administration, and these remain relevant. We wrote in the July perspectives update:
“The first variant is that Trump’s reactionary agenda, including the rapid drive to consolidate an authoritarian power grab, succeeds in the end despite significant opposition in the streets because the social power of the working class is not decisively brought to bear. This could lead to a period of depressed struggle. The second is that the combination of overreach, mass upheaval and ruling-class division deals the Trump regime a decisive defeat at a certain stage, resulting either in impeachment and outright removal or transformation into a largely lame duck presidency. The third possibility is that the regime is not decisively defeated but through a combination of struggle, repeated opposition from sections of the ruling class, and other objective obstacles such as a recession, starts to run out of steam.”
The Democrats
It’s hard to imagine a more favorable opposition for Trump than the Democratic Party. That’s because, though they represent a different political trend, better represent sections of the capitalist class than Trump, and find Trump’s methods and style distasteful, they ultimately serve the same fundamental ruling class interests. Those include reshaping the US state and preparing it for a harsher world of climate disaster, austerity, and militarism. While Trump is wasting no time in enacting his agenda, the Democrats have no unified message other than to oppose Trump, and they are abysmal at opposing him. The government shutdown is one of the first semblances of a united stand they’ve mounted against Trump, but it is not guaranteed to work out for them in the end. They’re less popular than the unpopular Trump and the Republicans, they’re losing the party affiliation contest, they’ve lost a significant portion of their advantage with people of color, and they’ve lost big swaths of the youngest voters. Voters without a college degree, which is an imperfect proxy for class, are leaving the Democratic tent. Trump won 59% of voters without a college degree in 2024, which is up from 51% in 2016.
The Republicans are not the sole beneficiaries of the Democrats’ attrition: the percentage of voters who are registered as independent or with a third party is higher than it has been in at least 25 years, and exit polling from the 2024 elections showed that voters who self-identified as independent outnumbered registered Democrats. This is favorable from the point of view of opportunities to build a new, left party, but the main missing ingredient is leadership. The Democrats’ base is very understandably demoralized and disgusted by the utter lack of any kind of effective action to stand up to Trump’s attacks. However, despite the negative feelings toward the party, big sections will be motivated to come out and vote for the Democrats and especially against Trump in 2026. We will need to be clear on the dead end of voting for the Democrats to stop Trump and the right, pointing instead to working-class struggle and independent working-class politics.
The Democratic Party 2024 “autopsy” report has not yet been released, but many of the party’s politicians have not waited to draw their own conclusions. Fundamentally, the party has moved to the right, which is in line with the needs of the ruling class in this period. There are any number of examples: Gavin Newsom on trans issues, Mayor Muriel Bowser conciliating Trump after his Washington DC invasion, Kathy Hochul accusing Long Island Rail Road union members of being Trump-bots for wanting to strike, and even Bernie Sanders saying that illegal immigration was “inappropriate.”
To try and recover, the Democrats will spend hundreds of millions of dollars on initiatives like SAM, which stands for “Speaking with American Men: A Strategic Plan” and entails $20 million worth of investments into studying “the syntax, language and content that gains attention and virality in these [male-dominated] spaces,” and will make recommendations to Democratic candidates. The New York Times tells the truth when they say projects like these “read like anthropological studies of people from faraway places” because that’s precisely what working-class people are to the tops of the Democratic Party.
Zohran Mamdani’s rapid rise and likely soon-victory in New York City has rattled the Democratic Party, which was horrified, along with the rest of the billionaire class, by Mamdani’s pro-working class program, close association with DSA, and army of young volunteers. The Democratic Party’s efforts to mislead, co-opt, and crush the movement around Mamdani’s campaign have had significant success in dragging Mamdani himself to the right. In general, the extreme pressures of the current period can give Mamdani and other would-be reformists in the Democratic Party a very short shelf life. Following the betrayals of Bernie and the Squad in 2020-2022, we were previously too dismissive about the possibility of left Democrats attaining relevance again in the near-term, and we were late to begin organizing alongside politicized Mamdani supporters.
We initially overestimated how much the mood around the left Democratic campaigns of 2015-2020 has moved away from elections being the central way to fight back. Many of those inspired by these campaigns did move into other ways of struggle such as mass protests, labor activism, or community volunteering. While we raised the idea in 2021 that DSA should run a mayoral candidate and supported Zohran’s decision to run this year, we initially didn’t think that consciousness around elections had enough momentum to build a sufficiently strong campaign. We should be more open in this period that working people will test out every possible avenue to fight against the establishment.
We should draw out the lessons from that mistaken perspective. Why do progressive-minded people continue to run as and vote for Democrats when they have betrayed workers and exposed themselves so many times? Because it is not enough for them to be discredited, there must also be a credible alternative available. Additionally, there will always be a section of “progressive” bourgeoisie, though sometimes marginalized, that will vie for a kinder capitalism, and they will turn to the Democratic Party for their cause. More or less every election cycle we’ll need to contend with left Democrats misleading workers on a mission to transform an untransformable party.
There appears to be a sharp increase in the number of primary challenges to Democratic congressmembers going into next year’s midterms, reflecting a degree of rejuvenation in the left of the party, but mostly the deep dissatisfaction and anger with the current state of the party. Many of these candidates are milquetoast “progressives” whose politics aren’t a massive departure from the incumbents’, even if the candidates themselves are younger and more social media-savvy, but undoubtedly there will be some who run on left economic demands and a more clearly left platform.
One notable example is Graham Platner’s senate campaign in Maine. Up until mid-to-late October, Platner had been trouncing his closest opponent, Maine governor Janet Mills, in the polls—leading Mills by 34 percentage points. Information that Platner had—(and only recently covered up) a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol as well as a checkered Reddit comment history, has plunged the campaign into serious controversy. While there are initial indications that this has damaged the campaign’s viability, it has not been the death blow that the corporate media clearly wishes it was, largely a testament to the attractiveness of the left-wing demands which Platner has adopted.
In our previous perspectives statement we argued that it was extremely unlikely that Mamdani would be able to avoid cooptation by the capitalist class, and that was borne out shortly after his primary win. Mamdani has taken a number of steps to try and diffuse the panic his primary victory set off among the NYC billionaire class. He pledged not to cut the police department’s budget, brought Democratic Party insiders onto his campaign staff, and held a meeting with key representatives of the New York City ruling class. At this stage, Mamdani does not appear in any way prepared to lead the kind of struggle winning even a significant portion of his program would require. If Mamdani gets elected and is able to win a few limited gains he may get a lot of credit due to how low expectations in politicians are, especially among working-class New Yorkers. As we have argued, Mamdani’s popularity shows how even a limited left reformist program can cut across demoralization, but he is now on a rightward trajectory which will result in a setback for the left unless an independent political struggle can emerge which either pushes Mamdani to the left or extends beyond his limitations.
While disappointment in left Democrats is inevitable, the effect it has on consciousness is not predetermined. Their failures can serve as an opening for us to put forward our distinct call for an independent working class party. Our approach to these forces today will be instrumental to recruiting another strong layer of comrades, who, having had a taste of left politics, will be hungry for revolutionary ideas, once disillusionment with left Democrats has set in. While engaging with hopes for left Democrats, we also need to find a road to the many tens of thousands of people who despise both parties and are looking for a lead in the struggle. This will require bold, energetic, confident interventions and exemplary campaigning work. Both flow from clarity of perspectives and program.
We are already seeing more independents running for office and campaigning to win over the Democratic base—but this does not automatically mean gains for the left. Dan Osborn, the independent Nebraska senate candidate who was very competitive in a special senate election in 2024, is more right-wing than left, though his campaign does highlight some left-populist demands. Osborn’s 2024 campaign is now serving as a blueprint for new independent campaigns; alongside Osborn, who is running again, several other independents in South Dakota, Idaho, and Mississippi are currently running for senate seats in the 2026 midterms.
Certain elements of the Democratic establishment appear to be more willing to tolerate independent candidates, like the Nebraska Democrats deciding not to run a candidate against Osborn for the second election in a row. On a national scale, Democratic PAC and candidate support organization Run for Something announced in August that it will be “broadening its endorsement criteria for 2026 to allow values-aligned candidates running as Independents to apply.”
While candidates running outside of the two-party system is a trend we’d like to see continue, by itself that doesn’t guarantee that these campaigns will be firmly rooted in genuine working class politics, further emphasizing the dire need for a new workers’ party with a left working-class platform. Left Democrats and individual independent candidates alike have no actual accountability to their working-class constituents, which we would fight for a workers’ party to mandate. Depending on the location of the campaign and the party’s capacity, Socialist Alternative should consider how, or if, to orient to these campaigns, including through developing written material.
Midterm Elections & 2028
Traditionally, the party in power faces voters’ ire at the midterm elections, boosting the party that’s out of power. Since the Civil War, the presidential party has lost an average of 33 seats in the House in midterm elections, and in only two midterms since 1950 has the presidential party not lost seats in the House. If next year’s midterms were to be a “normal” election it is almost guaranteed that the Democrats would take back the House (though not the Senate given which seats are up for election), especially given Trump’s declining approval ratings and the Republicans’ razor-thin three seat majority. However, we need to be alive to the very unique circumstance of this particular midterm election, which is the erosion of traditional bourgeois democratic norms under Trump 2.0 and the regime’s utter determination to ensure the Republicans maintain power in Congress.
Even before the death of Charlie Kirk and the crackdown on liberal groups and the left, Trump had already taken highly irregular steps toward a Republican victory next November. He ordered a Justice Department investigation of Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue and demanded detailed voter files from the states, apparently to disqualify what his administration determines are ineligible voters on a mass scale. The most immediate target of the accelerated crackdown in the wake of the Kirk assassination is the broader Democratic Party NGO ecosystem as part of the regime’s push to maintain control of Congress. The coming wave of authoritarian repression reflects the Trump regime’s volatility and will continue to be quite shocking to tens of millions of people.
Trump also instructed Texas Republicans to redistrict the state to create more congressional districts that Republicans are likely to win, kicking off a redistricting war with Democratic governors, most notably with Gavin Newsom in California. Newsom is leading the counter-redistricting charge in California, and is mobilizing Democratic politicians, unions and progressive activist organizations behind the effort to pass a ballot measure, Proposition 50, that will allow Democrats to redistrict the state in their favor before the midterms. While the measure is narrowly leading in the polls, it’s unlikely to galvanize the mass action that is necessary to mount a serious response to Trump’s attacks.
There’s likely to be a big turnout of anti-Trump voters for the midterms, particularly if significant struggle breaks out in the run-up to Election Day, and/or if there is a particularly sharp economic downturn. Trump and the MAGA-fied Republicans undoubtedly control a lot of municipalities and counties and quite possibly could be called on to help steal the election if the Democrats are up in the polls, which is likely. It’s also possible the far right comes out onto the streets to intimidate voters or stage armed rallies. This wouldn’t need overt endorsement from Trump, but could take place with passive support and cover from local police departments and politicians. Another possible scenario is that Trump assigns ICE to ‘protect elections’ from voter fraud by immigrants. The long standing conservative dog whistle would then be used to intimidate Black and brown voters. It is even possible that Trump begins making comments in the direction of cancelling the midterms, though actually doing so is highly unlikely, and if he did it would undoubtedly provoke a massive outpouring of struggle of historic proportions.
As the midterms get closer and Trump’s efforts to rig them become more blatant, this could become a mass discussion in society. Marxists must be prepared to campaign for free and fair elections and to argue for the need to meet any attempt to steal the election with mass working-class action, including coordinated strike action and community self-defense of voting locations. We will need more discussion on our approach in the coming year.
If, despite the regime’s best efforts, the Republicans lose control of Congress, this can act as a significant confidence boost to all those who oppose Trump to struggle against the regime. We can expect that the 2028 election cycle will essentially begin as soon as the midterms end. The Democrats will be focused on channelling all anti-Trump anger into the election and ramping up lesser-evilism as opposed to struggle. Our call for working-class political independence and a new party will be central, and if new left forces internationally, such as the party around Corbyn and Sultana in Britain, have success this will have a positive impact in the US.
On the other side, there is already talk of who will succeed Trump as the Republican candidate in 2028 if he doesn’t run himself, which, while unlikely for many reasons, cannot be fully ruled out. While the Republican party and the right wing are deeply tied to Trump as a figure, the reactionary shift by the ruling class as well as the rise of right populism are deeper processes that go beyond Trump as an individual, and it is not the case that post-Trump the Republican Party will simply return to its pre-MAGA character.
The Labor Movement
The labor movement took important steps forward in recent years with union workers having increased confidence to fight, and unions reaching historically high levels of popularity. This was a significant step forward, though still starting from a low level after a period of retreat and decline for the labor movement. A big development in union workers’ consciousness over the past several years has been the willingness to vote down tentative agreements. As we pointed out in our 2024 world perspectives document, both the reassertion of the labor movement and its low starting point are a global phenomenon. Despite the worsening economic conditions and the climate created by Trump’s attacks, some workers are still voting down contracts, including St. Louis-area Boeing workers who went on strike in August and United Airlines flight attendants.
The terrain for labor struggle is becoming less favorable as the labor market worsens. Union density hit its lowest ever point in 2024, and high profile private sector unionizing drives at Amazon and Starbucks have largely stalled or been defeated. The number of strikes and striking workers was much lower in 2024 compared to 2023, which saw UAW’s Big Three strike, and the months-long SAG-AFTRA strike. Nonetheless strike figures are still higher in 2024 than in any other previous year since 2019, during the aftermath of #RedForEd. While unions still have high popularity in polls—just shy of 70%—this also has to be balanced with the high level of proxy consciousness. Even during the height of the 2022 wave of organizing drives, Gallup reported that only 20% of non-union workers are actually interested in joining a union, and 58% are “not interested at all.” Since then, the environment for new organizing drives has become much less favorable, with lower inflation than two to three years ago and significantly more emboldened employers with union-buster-in-chief Trump in the White House. The more developed consciousness around striking is not going to disappear, but an economic crisis can temporarily cut across workers taking job action.
The Trump regime has leveled historic attacks on public sector labor through the DOGE firings, attacks on the Department of Education, and stripping of union rights from one million federal workers, with essentially no effective response from the labor leadership. The regime has also hobbled the NLRB by firing the board’s director, which deprived the board of a quorum, and is an ongoing situation. The Federal Fifth Circuit Court ruled that the NLRB itself is unconstitutional in a case involving Musk’s SpaceX. The case will almost certainly end up in the Supreme Court given the stakes, which include the future existence of the NLRB. Currently, the NLRB is powerless to rule on any unfair labor practice charges in the Fifth Circuit’s jurisdiction of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
As we have argued, the NLRB is not a tool that workers could ever rely on. However, if a major portion of the legal framework governing private sector unions is thrown out by the Supreme Court in the coming year, bosses will become even more emboldened to blatantly crush union drives and will be even less hesitant to overtly break the law when doing so. It would lead to a crisis in the labor movement, which has over-relied on the NLRB for decades instead of on workers’ power on the shop floor. It would pose the question of either completely overhauling the unions’ strategy away from the legalistic NLRB process and towards more militant and confrontational tactics, or facing a further significant erosion in union density and power, from the current already historic low-point.
The leadership of the labor movement has had no serious response to the Trump administration’s public sector attacks, and in the private sector, there are labor leaders who are cozying up to Trump. The Ohio Teamsters recently endorsed Republican candidate for governor Vivek Ramaswamy, following the lead given by Sean O’Brien’s move to the right in effectively supporting Trump. In 1981, the failure of the labor bureaucracy to take strike action to defeat Reagan’s firing of PATCO air traffic controllers opened the way for decades of defeat to labor. Trump’s attacks on labor pose the threat of a new “PATCO moment.” They certainly represent a setback to the recent labor resurgence, at least in the US. However, another multi-decade period of defeats is highly unlikely. Regardless of the extent of any defeat, it’s the lack of any lead given by the bureaucracy that is the primary (but not only) factor accounting for the dismal lack of response to Trump’s attacks on labor. Many union leaders are essentially keeping their heads down waiting for a changeover to the Democrats.
We should not expect a section of the bureaucracy to move into action on their own and lead heroic class struggles given they have no experience, understanding, or (most importantly) interest in the type of titanic battles and sacrifices necessary in this period. Instead, it will take explosive struggles from below and/or the emergence of anti-capitalist trends in the working class that lead exemplary high-profile movements and give millions confidence to take action. While union decline can continue, under the surface a section of workers will be looking for more radical ideas.
Just as with the left Democrats, we must be skillful in our clear warnings and criticisms of left bureaucrats while also going through struggles alongside advanced elements in our class and making the best proposals to take movements forward. Denunciation will get us nowhere but the sidelines, and avoiding the truth of looming betrayals will not prepare our class for the stark realities we face. Unions have unprecedented passive support in society due to class polarization, but unions have become an objectively marginal force, and other planes of class struggle might be the igniting element that eventually brings labor to the forefront.
Massive social struggle or a new party could provide the wider “subjective factor” missing for a union upsurge. Objectively, the basis exists for some of the biggest ever independent left electoral campaigns, but no significant groups are stepping into the vacuum. We should look for opportunities to engage with strong independent left campaigns while we agitate more widely for a working-class party.
The situation facing labor is highly contradictory. Rising job insecurity will likely further dampen the willingness to organize new unions but the same downward economic trajectory may increase interest in organizing oppositions within existing unions. Gains in consciousness to fight may be weakened but are not disappearing, and there is tremendous anger in society. Outside of the US, the reassertion of labor is still ongoing, as seen in the victory of the Canadian flight attendants defying the country’s anti-union laws, as well as the strike wave in Europe in solidarity with the Sumud Flotilla. There’s also tremendous political confusion including among some groups of unionized workers. If the Supreme Court wipes out the NLRB’s authority to govern labor conflict, unions will be forced to mobilize their workers to win even very small gains. In such an environment, figures like O’Brien may try to move closer to Trump, if they calculate that begging for some crumbs from the Bonaparte is their best chance to maintain their positions.
The contradictions in the labor movement are exacerbated by its relationship with the wider anti-Trump movement. We saw this in an extreme form during the period between the Wisconsin uprising in 2011 and #RedForEd in 2018, when growing political radicalization was accompanied by decline in the labor movement. The idea and slogan of a general strike became increasingly popular, but mainly among newly radicalized forces outside the labor movement who weren’t in any position to organize one. Shawn Fain’s call for a 2028 general strike was different. It came from one of the highest profile labor leaders and posed a concrete means of achieving it through synchronizing unions’ contracts. However, Fain’s formalistic approach is at odds with the actual dynamics of struggle. The call was made before Trump was elected and the strike, if it happens, wouldn’t be until there are six months left in Trump’s term. For those being drawn into activity through the various anti-Trump struggles, a serious escalation in labor struggles would be enthusiastically taken up if they were given the lead from the labor movement. Unfortunately, that lead is lacking.
We have consistently raised the need for the organized working class to put its stamp on events in order to push back the Trump regime’s attacks. This is not limited to the specific attacks against unions themselves, but also includes broader attacks on the working class including immigrant and trans workers. A handful of unions cosponsored the No Kings rally as well as some other protests; however, this has not involved concrete discussion on leveraging their power in workplaces thus far. Some unions, including the NEA and AFT, are hosting actions as part of the “Students Rise Up” campaign, but it is unclear whether these actions will leverage power in the workplace. Although it is far from guaranteed, with pressure from student protests, or an overreach by the Trump administration that sparks struggle, this campaign could potentially become an avenue for actions in the workplace for union workers, or, at the least, an opportunity for educator comrades to build authority in their locals. The ICE raids and arrest of SEIU president David Huerta in LA and the subsequent day of action called by SEIU was an opportunity to escalate labor’s role in fighting deportations, but was limited by the extremely minimal approach by the SEIU leadership. We should continue to raise the need for unions to take up the fight to defend immigrant as well as trans workers, and broader political fights in general. The movement against the Gaza war in the US has been largely stagnant following the repression on campuses, but recent developments internationally could open space for increased discussion and action by unions around opposing the genocide in Gaza.
Particularly with the economy likely headed for long-term stagflation, the situation can be a powderkeg with the potential for explosive struggle and new leaders being thrown up out of those struggles. Whether or not the Supreme Court chooses the nuclear option on the NLRB, the union bureaucracy is likely to be weakened in the immediate term given its own unwillingness to organize against the barrage of the Trump regime’s attacks on labor. Historically, and quite recently in 2021-22, inflation has been a major driver of labor struggle.
The West Virginia teachers strike of 2018 was a recent example of how when workers move into struggle, a weak leadership means that there can be more openings for rank-and-file militants to take the lead, as opposed to the more conservative union bureaucrats. Workers blocked by ineffective leaders could also at some point move to take strike action outside their union structures. It was spontaneous TSA and air traffic controller sickouts during the 2018-19 government shutdown that pushed Sara Nelson to call for a general strike, putting her on the map, all of which struck the fear of god into the airline executives who forced Trump to end the shutdown and gave an example of workers’ power. We must be open on timing, and there are other important factors that will influence events, but a weak and out-of-touch bureaucracy combined with a working class losing their paychecks to inflation and jobs to a recession is a highly combustible situation that can potentially open the way to historic struggles.
In both the unions and electoral work, we have to provide concrete leadership through exemplary work and push for our class to boldly fight for all oppressed people. As mental health and alienation become deeper issues while society deteriorates, a deep Marxist understanding of capitalism combined with solidarity in action can become a vibrant pole of attraction even in a difficult situation. With clear perspectives for looming titanic struggles and confidence in the role revolutionary ideas can play, our forces can be a factor in the next upsurge.
Counter-Revolution Against the Gains of the 1960s-70s
In our initial article on woke capitalism in 2021, we stated: “If the liberal political establishment, the liberal media, and a big section of employers are putting forward the idea that responsibility for systemic racism sits on the shoulders of individual white people, and the only major force in society decisively opposing that idea is the Trump-dominated Republican party and far right, all those whom the far right would target, including Black people, immigrants, LGBTQ people, women, trade unionists and the left generally face a real danger.” The recent developments of Trump 2.0 have shown, unfortunately, how correct our perspective was. “Woke” capitalism and corporate identity politics, that were attempts to adapt to struggles such as BLM, have been burnt to ashes. Gains in mass consciousness around fighting racism, women’s oppression, and LGBTQ oppression have been set back since 2020—though certainly not eradicated—as we have explained.
But what is being referred to in the media as Trump’s war on “woke,” is far more ambitious than attacking the real gains in anti-oppression consciousness of the last decade. The right has launched a counter-revolution against the legal basis for rights for oppressed people won through struggles over decades and particularly during the social movements of the 1960s and 1970s. This counter-revolution began under Ronald Reagan, but the right has dreamed of going further for years prior to Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party. Significant ground has been ceded to the right, and the labor movement, as well as the liberal establishment, including the Democratic Party and the historic civil rights organizations like NAACP and NOW, have failed to mobilize any response.
The right-wing offensive against oppressed people is part of an international wave of nationalist propaganda about defending the family and “traditional” gender roles. Repeating a statement from Trump’s speech at the Charlie Kirk memorial, the official White House account tweeted, “Without borders, law and order, and religion, you don’t have a country.” This rhetoric is part of the reactionary shift by ruling classes globally, as they ramp up divide-and-rule attacks and attempt to discipline the working class. The Trump administration is also taking a more overt ideologically racist turn. Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller gave a speech at Kirk’s memorial that can be reasonably described as white nationalist. The Christian right is also playing a much more central role, which includes being bolstered by the state. Talking points around traditional and Christian family values will continue to play a significant role for the right including around justifying attacks on trans and women’s rights.
Anti-DEI rhetoric is being used as cover in a comprehensive campaign by the Trump regime to not just roll back federal enforcement of anti-discrimination law, but turn it against oppressed groups in a truly Orwellian manner. NPR reported that some 70% of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division’s attorneys left their positions by May, many quitting in disgust, as the division that was established during the Civil Rights Movement has now been instructed to carry out investigations in line with the regime’s reactionary policies. The Civil Rights division’s new priorities include targeting trans people, programs that address racial inequality, and the left for alleged anti-semitism. The federal office that enforces basic housing protections has been decimated by staffing cuts, opening the door for a de facto return to racist redlining policies in many places, among other forms of pervasive housing discrimination including against single mothers, who are disproportionately Black. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, a body that enforces civil rights in employment, has lacked a quorum since Trump fired two commissioners, marking the first time since the creation of the EEOC by the 1964 Civil Rights Act that a president has removed an EEOC commissioner without cause. Furthermore, the Supreme Court is likely to go on a rampage in the 2025-26 term, very possibly eviscerating the Voting Rights Act, potentially weakening marriage equality and LGBTQ rights generally, allowing the police to racially profile even further, and more. While a return to the era of Jim/Jane Crow would not be accepted by the population, US society can become more openly reactionary if these attacks are not challenged.
Even though it happened before Trump was reelected, the 2022 Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade can be seen as the right’s first major blow landed in its campaign against the gains oppressed people won through the momentous social movements of the Civil Rights era in the 1960s and 70s. The assault on reproductive rights has continued under Trump 2.0 with the defunding of Planned Parenthood and the reimposition of the Hyde Amendment, which bans federal funding for abortions. These attacks are motivated in part by the ruling class’ growing embrace of natalism, the idea that national birth rates need to increase to ensure a steady supply of workers and combatants in this new era of imperialist rivalry. Trump’s horrendous comments downplaying domestic violence, saying that “a little fight with the wife” should not count as a crime, are another indication of the ongoing erosion of women’s rights.
Right-wing attacks in the courts on legal victories against oppression and against government efforts to address discrimination could result in the loss of illusions in legalism and the courts as a viable venue for fighting against oppression. Similar to the potential for greater rank-and-file labor militancy as a response to the elimination of the NLRB, a section of the working class may respond to the collapse of legalism by taking up a movement-based approach that could more easily incorporate class struggle tactics. However, a relatively smaller section may become demoralized and look to adventurist, communalistic, or even terroristic action in response to capitalism’s oppression.
Women’s, and particularly Black women’s workforce participation has sharply turned negative due to several factors, including the Trump regime’s DOGE federal workforce firings, which disproportionately affected Black women, and the bosses’ increasing elimination of remote work in the public and private sectors. Childcare costs have gone up 29% since 2020, which exceeds overall inflation, and this will likely worsen with the regime’s immigration crackdown, given that 20% of childcare workers are immigrants.
Nearly one in ten US adults identify as LGBTQ—a figure which has nearly doubled since 2020 and is up from 3.5% in 2012—reflecting a sea change around gender and sexual diversity in US society. The far right has undertaken a campaign to roll back gains, and the courts have handed down countless blows against queer rights with very limited struggle in response. In addition to the avalanche of bills targeting trans people, the far right is now angling to go after same-sex marriage and the Supreme Court will consider whether to hear the Obergefell v. Hodges case that legalized marriage equality. While it seems unlikely that the right to same-sex marriage would be overturned at this stage, the sweeping attacks against oppressed people show that there is no room for complacency, and the LGBTQ rights movement needs to take a much more offensive approach.
The demonization of trans people accelerated even further following the assassination of Charlie Kirk. This is a snapshot of the extreme scapegoating that the Trump administration is utilizing, as the Democrats stand by and, at times, even fan the flames. The extreme right is aiming to drive trans people out of public life and even pushing the FBI to designate “transgender ideology” as violent extremism and a domestic terror threat.
The Supreme Court ruling allowing ICE to stop people based on ethnicity, language, accent, where they are, or place of work has thrown the doors wide open for legalized racial profiling of a massive swath of the population. Big cities in the US in general have an extremely multi-racial working class. Just as one example of the potential scope of the court’s ruling, some 42 million people speak Spanish at home in the US. If it finds it necessary, there is potential for the Trump regime to use the Court’s decision as the legal basis to ramp up repression against protesters, strikers, activists, and much of the working class in many cities. Racist intimidation and harassment by ICE has a serious potential to again become a flashpoint for mass struggle, as it was in LA earlier this year.
The false promises of “progress” and “representation” that were peddled during the 2010s are being thrown aside and replaced with a much more naked reactionary approach by the ruling class which has already gone far in rolling back gains that were won decades ago. These attacks can lead to some drawing more pessimistic conclusions about the possibility for united struggle and falling into demoralization, but it will also provoke sharp radicalization among sections of workers and especially youth who recognize the absolute bankruptcy of the entire system and inevitably lead to significant struggle.
Social Struggle
The Trump administration’s attacks on workers and the oppressed have been sweeping and overwhelming by design. Initially Trump’s election was met with a very muted response, reflecting the disorientation, fear and lack of leadership in the workers movement. Struggle began to pick up in February with smaller scale protests on single issues like immigration, trans rights, and against attacks on federal workers. By April a shift took place with larger mobilizations beginning to develop. Then, the developments in Los Angeles with high-profile raids and the mobilization of the National Guard provoked explosive protests in LA and the largest day of protests in US history with the No Kings protest on June 14th. However, as we explained in the US perspectives update in July, while the reaction was a blow to Trump, the protests, which did not mobilize the social power of the working class in any meaningful way or even threaten to, were not successful in fundamentally altering the direction of the regime.
Despite the determination of millions who have made the decision to go out into the streets in the face of serious intimidation, the movement against Trump’s government has been hamstrung by a number of political limitations. Protests organized by 50501 and other liberal groups have been tied to the Democratic Party, a dead-end strategy. The LA protests had a much more spontaneous character and lacked clear demands, means to organize democratic discussion, or a plan to escalate beyond coming out in the streets the next day. Crucially, the movement against Trump’s agenda has lacked real involvement from the organized working class, largely due to the total abdication of leadership by the majority of labor leaders. While fear and political disorientation are undoubtedly significant features, the weakness of the leadership and organization of the left and labor movement is the key barrier in the development of struggle against right-wing attacks. A strong lead being provided could greatly help overcome many of the current challenges in consciousness.
The mobilization of the National Guard into DC, and in particular the limited resistance in response, was a dangerous development that opened the door for a bigger offensive; ICE has been mobilized in force to Chicago and the National Guard to Memphis, with threats made about further escalations. The size and strength of the response to these attacks will be crucial in either pushing back the regime or emboldening it further. Especially critical is whether a section of the labor movement steps up and takes strike action against the attacks. Up to this point the terror against immigrants, the homeless, and Black workers in particular in these large US cities has largely had a chilling effect, along with the total lack of any real lead being provided on how to fight back.
However, as we have repeatedly stressed, the situation can shift quickly as events play out. The popular organizing in Chicago in response to Trump’s invasion, primarily taking the form of neighborhood-based ICE watch-style groups, demonstrates the courage and willingness to struggle of a layer. The lockdowns at a number of HBCUs in response to threats after the Charlie Kirk assassination were another example of deepening polarization, which could provoke a reaction. As we explained in the US Perspectives document passed by the 2024 National Convention, “Trump’s deeply reactionary agenda will provoke massive opposition in US society. But defeating it will be a whole different matter. It would certainly require the social power of the working class to be brought to bear.” There is an abundance of combustible material in US society and Trump is playing with fire. But what will be necessary to actually shift the situation and the Trump regime’s momentum in a more fundamental way is a more decisive breakthrough for the movement, namely sections of the working class moving into struggle, as a class, and putting its stamp on events.
Overreach on a number of issues including the midterm elections and attacks on democratic rights, attacks on oppressed people, escalation of deportations, standoffs with the National Guard, or high-profile incidents of state violence could drive people out into the streets at some stage. Dissatisfaction over the state of the economy is another important issue that could provoke struggle or indirectly add fuel to the fire of a mood to fight around other issues. Trump’s approval ratings on the economy have plummeted and the economic situation for working-class people shows no signs of fundamentally turning around. Inflation and cost of living were key factors in the 2024 election which could trigger major instability within Trump’s base as well as a wider section of society.
The betrayals and cooptations from the George Floyd uprising, and the impacts this has had on lessons for struggle, continue to hold back movements against anti-Black racism. This disorientation and the perceived failure of protesting has led to incorrect, divisive sentiments among many Black Americans pertaining to when Black Americans should show up, which is extremely unhelpful for a multi-faceted moment that is necessary to actually build a fightback. Black people were told by the Trump administration that immigrants were taking “Black jobs.” ICE has now become one of the largest standing armies in the world. While the fight against anti-Black racism is still mainly in retreat after the backlash to the George Floyd rebellion, it will re-emerge in the coming years.
We saw massive protests in LA against the raids and Trump also sent federal troops into DC where the population is almost half Black people. Black men in particular had their faces posted to White House official social media putting out national man hunts for residents of the city. This along with strict curfews was very obviously a racialized attack. We should expect to see this over the coming period in other largely Black cities.
Individual actions will be the norm if a collectivized resistance isn’t built. Tactics like boycotts since the attacks on DEI have been very popular against Target for example. This can lead to both demoralization when nothing really changes and incorrect ideas like Black capitalism and Black nationalism. Black people and Black women in particular are and will continue to be a target for Trump’s cuts. Black women make up almost 12% of federal workers who experienced thousands of job cuts. The coming cuts to Medicaid will hurt Black women and children immensely. A struggle along class lines will be needed.
Extreme fear is a huge feature in many immigrant communities, in particular among undocumented workers. A study from Stanford University found that student absences across five California Central Valley school districts increased by 22% on average at the start of Trump’s presidency in 2025. Immigrants rights NGOs have largely focused on know-your-rights training, legal defense and “ICE watch,” rather than offensive organizing against Trump’s attacks. However, racist intimidation and harassment by ICE can bubble over at some stage. This could also have a somewhat uneven character, for example with young people who are second generation immigrants feeling more confidence to struggle, which was a feature of some of the immigrants’ rights protests and student walkouts that took place in February.
While pockets of resistance to gender and sexuality-based oppression have popped up during heightened attacks, they have not coalesced into anything approximating a mass movement. Frustration from this does not automatically mean they will tune out of politics. When we intervene into these movements and push them to be built on a truly democratic basis, with demands that break from the bourgeois liberal status quo, we can connect with those who have become disillusioned and bring them over to our politics.
We can look back at key experiences in our recent history for examples of how our interventions in social movements around gender and sexuality-based oppressions can provide a pole of attraction for advanced layers, such as our extensive work around the overturn of Roe v. Wade. Our task is to connect anti-oppression struggle to a wider working-class program and revolutionary socialist conclusions, while showing the effectiveness of our methods in action.
Sunrise Movement along with other youth organizations including YDSA are launching a “Students Rise Up” campaign with plans for monthly actions culminating in a student and educator day of mass non-cooperation on May 1, 2026. Sunrise is one of the few organizations that took a more fighting posture following Trump’s election and it’s possible this initiative could develop real momentum which would obviously be extremely positive and we should become actively involved in. One of Sunrise’s biggest political limitations is their approach to the Democrats, and we have confirmation from comrades involved that they are planning to use this campaign to eventually direct energy toward the midterms, so it’s critical that we boldly raise points around the need for a new party, as well as the need to link up with the labor movement, and reject this bankrupt strategy.
War & Social Explosion
While the protests have ebbed in the US, the movement against the war in Gaza has been the largest and most sustained movement globally in the past 2 years. Significant shifts in consciousness have taken place around the role of the Israeli state and solidarity with the Palestinian people against national oppression. In the US, the movement receded following the violent repression of the campus encampments overseen by the Biden administration and intensified under Trump. The mass mobilizations as well as the direct actions organized by forces like Jewish Voice for Peace and If Not Now last year, have largely given way to very small protests dominated by ultra-left ideas and support for reactionary regimes and methods.
Even before the ceasefire, the ebb in the movement was a result of both repression as well as a certain political impasse about the way forward, but does not in any way indicate support for the Israeli state’s offensive or the blank check from US imperialism to fund their crimes. Sharp escalations in the situation in Gaza or increased US involvement in other military conflicts could reignite mass protests again. Developments in the movement internationally, such as the strike in Italy against the genocide, can also serve as a source of political inspiration and boost healthy elements in the movement in the US. There is a broad distrust in the idea of US military involvement among wider sections of the population, and the hollowness of Trump’s promises of peace are being exposed every day.
No matter what parties are in power, and no matter the subjective intentions of ruling-class figures, the world situation points towards war. For more than 50 years, the US working class has consistently rejected wars involving US ground troop casualties; this long trend will continue and intensify. Patriotic propaganda will have a definite impact, but a main feature of the drive towards war will also be social explosion and powerful mass movements.
When US entry into a ground war is posed, we will see protests and struggle that dwarf the anti-war movement beginning in 2003. War, along with recession and deep polarization, will shake US society to its core, leading to massive openings for the development of a new left party. Marxist and other left radical ideas will be given opportunities to lead with action.
Conclusion
Increased inter-imperialist conflict and explosive struggles leading to significant upheaval are key features of the new era. The bankruptcy of the capitalist order is abundantly clear, as lip service for addressing the climate crisis and raising standards of living have been abandoned in favor of a more openly reactionary turn by the ruling class. The crises of the system run deep, not least of which is the increasingly precarious US and global economy. The dangers in the US economy are even further compounded by the fact that this was essentially the #1 talking point in Trump’s election campaign.
We must be prepared for more struggle against Trump 2.0. This includes looking for every opportunity, even if small, to struggle alongside workers and young people, raise our ideas and build our forces, while being prepared for larger explosions. Overreach is baked into the situation where an empire in decline is hedging its bets on a 79-year-old megalomaniac and billionaire. An abundance of potential issues could provoke struggle. As we have seen with the events in LA over the summer, the Epstein files scandal, and the assassination of Charlie Kirk, unexpected developments can also quickly shift the terrain. At the same time, as Trump’s concentration of power escalates, the situation can become normalized and the regime more consolidated making it harder to push back on. Such a scenario can lead to more decisive setbacks and a period of deeper reaction.
For our organization, the crucial point is that the outcome of this battle is not yet determined. We must prepare our forces for the possible trajectories that can develop while also fighting for the most favorable variant for the development of the working class movement and the forces of Marxism.
