Brazil: Rebuild the Struggle and Raise a Working Class Program

The formal indictment by the Prosecutor General’s office against Bolsonaro and 34 other people involved in the preparation of a coup d’état represents a significant setback for the far right, including its electoral project for the 2026 Presidential elections. While he was already considered ineligible to stand for election following a decision of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) in 2023, now Jair Bolsonaro and his accomplices could suffer the same fate as General Braga Netto (Bolsonaro’s 2022 running mate) and end up behind bars.

The far right, however, is far from being definitively knocked out. We cannot underestimate the risks coming from attempts being made for the National Congress’s to give impunity to the leaders of the attempted coup. In addition to the bill already underway to modify the Ficha Limpa (“clean record”) law to benefit Bolsonaro, the far right continues to seek some kind of amnesty for the former captain and his accomplices.

Even though they are unlikely to succeed, we must not let our guard down. The Lula government relies on agreements made with the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate who took office this year. Both are right-wing politicians elected with support from Lula, but also from the Bolsonaro opposition! Hugo Motta, the new president of the Chamber of Deputies, even declared, for example, that ‘January 8’ can’t even be considered a coup action.

No Confidence in the Judiciary

The same goes for the judiciary, which has shown its support for coups in the past. This was the case with the institutional coup that overthrew Dilma Rousseff in 2016 and Lula’s arrest in 2018 as part of ‘Operation Car Wash’. If today the STF (Supreme Court) seems to have a different position, what guarantee is there that it will continue to do so?

The STF’s current role in trying to contain the coup d’état born of the Bolsonaro hordes reflects first and foremost its own fear as an institution threatened by the extreme right, but also the conjunctural position of a sector of the Brazilian ruling class that today (until when?) is resistant to coup adventures.

The leading role played by Alexandre de Moraes and the STF is also directly proportional to the government’s “moderation” (or cowardice) in challenging Bolsonaro and his henchmen. It’s enough to remember that José Múcio, who never tires of covering for the military coup plotters, remains defence minister and ventriloquist’s dummy for the military within the government.

The Brazilian far right is also trying to take advantage of the tumultuous new international scenario, impacted by Trump’s inauguration in the US, despite all the contradictions and volatility of this process. We can only expect interference, conflicts and attacks from the Trump regime. The Bolsonaro scoundrels will not miss any opportunity to use this to their advantage. Any illusions in “pragmatic” and conciliatory solutions will lead to more defeats.

Far right threat remains

Furthermore, the General Prosecutor’s indictment and even Bolsonaro’s arrest would not be enough to neutralise the extreme right. Bolsonarism has managed to build relatively deep roots in broad sectors of the population. Even in the event that Bolsonaro is unable to run in 2026, the far right has the possibility of regrouping around other names that are just as, if not more, nefarious than the former captain.

Tarcísio de Freitas, one of Bolsonaro’s main potential replacements in 2026, is the same person who, as governor of São Paulo, shared the stage in February with Lula at the inauguration of works in the city of Santos (SP). At the time, Tarcísio was booed by those present, who also shouted “no amnesty!”. It was Lula who asked the audience for moderation and patience.

It was in this same region (Baixada Santista) that governor Tarcísio de Freitas effectively promoted an internal war operation against the black and poor population under the pretext of fighting organised crime. Between July 2023 and April 2024 alone, the so-called “Operation Shield”, in addition to “Operation Summer”, resulted in more than a hundred deaths at the hands of São Paulo’s security forces under the command of Tarcísio and his security secretary Derrite.

The danger posed by Tarcísio is real. He represents a wing of the extreme right that is just as nefarious as the original Bolsonaro, but which is trying to make itself, on the surface at least, more palatable to the taste of the fractions of the ruling class that still prefer to avoid the risk of Bolsonaro’s extremist adventures.

Even in the event of friction and internal divisions in the far-right camp in the midst of the contest to take over from Jair Bolsonaro, repeating what happened in the São Paulo mayoral election last year, for example, the far right will remain a real danger today and in 2026.

Independent Struggle is the Only Guarantee

To confront the far right, we need to learn from mistakes made so far. Delegating the task of stopping it to the judiciary or Congress, or expecting a firm stance from the Lula government, is a dangerous illusion and a strategy doomed to failure.

The only guarantee we have is our ability to fight independently. Instead of blindly and passively trusting the STF or praying that the Lula government changes its attitude (the much-touted “left turn” that never comes), it is the task of the entire workers’ movement and the left to take to the streets and build an organised struggle against impunity for the coup plotters and their authoritarian and anti-grassroots project.

We will only be able to build this fight against impunity and the extreme right if we build our own alternative project at the same time, a project that meets the needs of the working class and the oppressed sectors of society, even if this project clashes with the policies of the Lula government.

Lula — Austerity, Conciliation and a Brake on Struggles

The great advantage that the Bolsonaro right has at the moment lies mainly in the limits, contradictions and incapacity of the Lula government to offer an effective alternative and point to a path that meets the needs of the majority of the Brazilian people.

As we see in many countries (Argentina, Germany, the USA, etc.), it is the limits, mistakes and betrayals of forces considered progressive and the failure of the so-called “democratic” or “centrist” bourgeois alternatives (from whom not much could be expected anyway) that pave the way for the rise of the extreme right.

In Lula’s case, what we see is an intransigent refusal to take any initiative for popular mobilisation. Nothing like the initiatives, albeit limited, taken by governments such as Gustavo Petro (Colombia) or Claudia Sheinbaum (Mexico). Lula’s fundamental bet for sustaining the government is conciliation with the “Centrão” (the wing of conservative politicians in Congress who negotiate their vote with the government in exchange for privileges, positions and corrupt gains) and a desperate attempt to maintain the support of the part of the bourgeoisie that backed him in 2022. This is the essence of his policies.

The result is a government that hasn’t reversed any of the counter-reforms implemented by the previous governments of Michel Temer and Bolsonaro and that applies austerity policies that result in more pain for the people, and financial gains for the mega-holders of public debt and speculators in general.

It’s not that these attacks are being promoted by right-wing representatives within the government, as some claim. The cuts and the austerity policy, which are a fundamental part of the so-called “new fiscal framework”, are the work of (Finance Minister) Fernando Haddad and Lula. The Central Bank that keeps interest rates in the stratosphere is no longer run by an agent of Bolsonaro, as Roberto Campos Neto was. Gabriel Galípolo, appointed by Lula, differed little from Campos Neto on the board of the Central Bank and today, as president, he maintains and will maintain a criminal policy of extremely high interest rates.

The Economy is “Doing Well” But the People are Doing Badly!

The much-vaunted GDP growth of the last two years (3.2 per cent in 2023 and 3.4 per cent in 2024) will not be repeated this year as a result of the government’s monetary and investment policy in response to the market, as well as the complications of the external scenario. Similarly, the low unemployment rates which have been announced hide the situation of terrible working conditions, long working hours, extreme precariousness, systemic illness and extremely low wages.

The reasonable economic indices presented are not enough to contain popular dissatisfaction. Although official inflation is not as high as the capitalists who defend fiscal adjustment and high interest rates claim, the increase in food prices, in particular, is a determining factor in dissatisfaction, especially among the poorest. The economy is “doing well” but the people are doing badly!

The dramatic fall from 35 per cent to 24 per cent in approval of the Lula government between December and February, according to DataFolha, reflected this. It was the worst poll for Lula in all his three presidential terms so far. The drop was greatest among the poorest, women and in the north-east of the country. Among those with an income of less than double the minimum wage, approval fell by 15 percentage points over the same period. Among those who voted for Lula in the second round of Presidential elections in 2023, the drop was 20 percentage points. In one poll, rejection of Lula exceeded 60 per cent in the three largest Brazilian states (SP, RJ, MG), reaching 69 per cent in São Paulo.

Even though other polls have indicated a smaller drop in the government’s approval rating and the most recent polls do not indicate a deepening of this decline, a warning sign has been sounded.

The extent of the impact on public opinion of the serious allegations of corruption at the INSS (National Institute of Social Security), which led to the downfall of the institution’s president and Social Security Minister Carlos Lupi, is not yet known. The theft of pensioners’ money which this has revealed began under Bolsonaro’s government, but was not properly tackled under Lula, and this could have some impact.

The government’s response to this unfavourable scenario has hardly changed at all; it continues in the same direction. Ministerial changes, particularly in the area of communications and institutional relations, are not a solution. The problem lies in the direction and essence of the government’s policy, its commitments to sectors of the bourgeoisie and the “Centrão” politicians, and its overall political strategy.

The Lula government’s policy, in practice, is to compete with the far right by making concessions to it. This is true of economic policy, but also of sensitive issues such as public security. In the same meeting with Tarcísio de Freitas in Santos, Lula assumed the typical right-wing costume and defended a “revolution” in public security. He said that “it’s important to put the bandits in jail” and didn’t say a word about the citizens murdered in cold blood by the Military Police and the climate of terror created.

Expectations that Lula’s government was taking a turn to the left are proving to be illusory. On 1 May, for the first time, Lula spoke in favour of a debate, “listening to all sectors of society”, on reducing the working day and ending the 6X1 scale (six days working to one day off per week). Nothing more than that. The end of the 6X1 scale will be achieved through struggles, strikes and mass mobilisations, or it won’t be achieved at all.

The income tax exemption project for those earning up to 5,000 reais per month presented by the government is progressive. However, there is a risk that the government will compensate for this loss in revenue with further cuts in other areas, rather than imposing higher taxes on the wealthy, a sector that the government has no intention of confronting.

Left-Wing Alternative

The year 2025 will be decisive for building a relationship of social and political forces that can stop the right and pave the way for a working-class alternative. There are working class struggles being prepared and launched right now, such as in the education sector, in the civil service in general, in other categories and among the youth.

Many of these struggles are against the policies of cuts, privatisations and the withdrawal of rights implemented by municipal and state governments, as well as the federal government. They are just and necessary struggles and must be supported by the left and the trade unions, as well as popular and youth movements.

The same goes for the feminist movement’s demands based on the actions carried out on 8 March, including issues such as winning the broad right to abortion and against attacks on the existing limited legal right to abortion. These are issues that have been completely neglected by the federal government and are under daily attack by right-wing governments in the states and municipalities.

In addition, the fight against the 6X1 work schedule has become enormously popular and has won the sympathy of the vast majority of the population. This is the type of demand that penetrates even those layers of the working class that have been thrown into confusion by Bolsonaro’s ideological offensive. It helps tear the mask off far-right politicians, placing them explicitly on the side of the bosses and against the workers on an issue that is sensitive to everyone, the right to life beyond work.

The big challenge is to build a mass movement at grassroots level for a reduction in the working day without cutting wages and rights and an end to the 6X1 scale. The initiatives so far are very important, despite being boycotted by the majority union leaderships and the ruling left.

The banner of the fight against the 6X1 scale cannot be seen only as an element of the ideological dispute, of the “culture war” with the extreme right, as some people believe. It must be a concrete demand that aims to be effectively achieved and, in the process, questions the very logic of Brazilian capitalism’s hyper-exploitation, and paves the way for even deeper struggles that go to the root of the problems.

Unify the Struggles and Raise a Socialist Alternative

The fight against amnesty for the coup plotters and Bolsonaro in particular has to be built alongside concrete demands that affect the real lives of workers and oppressed sectors of society. These struggles need to be unified around a common action plan, including grassroots work, organising demonstrations, protest actions and using the strike and other working class methods of struggle in a coordinated way across all sectors.

The role of the socialist left is to put forward a programme that incorporates all the demands of these sectors and links them to an anti-capitalist and socialist way out. This will not be done by the Lula government either now or in 2026. We need coordinated action from the socialist left inside and outside the PSOL, as well as from the trade union, grassroots, feminist, anti-racist etc. movements. This struggle needs leaderships that are combative, independent and refuse to put the brakes on the struggles as Lula is demanding.