The far-right were the big winners of the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia.
An important factor is frustration with the results of 34 years of German unification, including social inequality, cheap jobs and disregard for people in the East. This has merged with the global situation, which is characterized by war, rearmament, nationalism, growing fears and the reactionary drive to “ethnicize” social conflicts. Hostility towards refugees, which is widespread in all media and who the established parties, the AfD (Alternative for Germany), but also (former Die Linke leader) Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party BSW make scapegoats for the fears of decline, acts as a binding agent for these factors.
The federal government parties, the SPD (social democrats), Greens and the liberal FDP, as an expression of the liberal administration of capitalism, won a combined vote share of less than 10.5% (Thuringia) and 13.3% (Saxony). They continue to whine and hope that things will not go any further downhill.
The SPD has escaped total annihilation; unlike the FDP, which in Saxony is at 0.9% behind the Animal Protection Party, “Free Voters” and the fascist “Free Saxons”, and just ahead of the satirical party “The Party”. In terms of their support, the Greens have been reduced to what they have long been in terms of content: a party of arrogant, wealthy snobs who despise the poor and lecture others morally..
The Left party (Linke) is collapsing across the board and becoming a party of young people in large cities and university towns. The AfD, the far-right alternative, is making gains among all age groups and professions and is becoming the dominant force.
The traditional right, the CDU, maintains its previous levels of support. The next few years will show to what extent the CDU will “Trumpify” itself and work together with the AfD. It currently has both options — moving towards the “center” and the far right. CDU minority governments propped up by de facto AfD toleration could serve as a way to undermine the shaky “firewall” keeping the AfD away from power.
In Thuringia, the CDU, SPD and BSW do not have enough votes to form a majority in the state parliament. Journalists have repeatedly pointed out that a single defection from the Left to the BSW would provide the necessary votes. Obviously, people are working hard behind the scenes with bait-and-switch offers. If there is no absolute majority after two rounds of voting for Prime Minister, a relative majority is sufficient in the third round. In 2020, Kemmerich (FDP) briefly took office with the votes of the AfD. This time, it would be SA quoter Björn Höcke (he was fined for using the Nazi SA’s slogan “Everything for Germany”) of the AfD himself who would benefit. It can be assumed that this is currently not in the interests of the establishment parties, but a loss of control cannot be ruled out.
A Vote against NATO
The state elections were a vote against NATO support for Ukraine, against war preparations and armament. The Left Party, the trade unions and also movements such as the FFF, with their failure or refusal to take a clear stance against militarism and rearmament, have paved the way for the fake anti-war stance of the AfD and the BSW. These pose as peace forces, but pursue their own nationalist agenda, which has differences, but also similarities, to that of the established parties.
They are cashing in on the fact that the field is clear for them and that they can combine “peace policy” and opposition to arms deliveries to Ukraine with isolationism, racism and anti-feminism. They exploit the justified skepticism of many people in East Germany towards a “Western orientation” and alliance with US imperialism.
The stance of a party of peace that rejects all imperialist wars has long been important for the cohesion of the left. Many leading members have destroyed this with their open or hidden support for Ukraine and NATO. Their thunderous silence on Israel’s genocidal war against Gaza has reinforced the effect.
The left and the workers’ movement must stand up against all imperialist camps, both those who started the shooting and those who passively and aggressively aggravated the situation. They must make it clear that the oppressed and working people on all sides have nothing to gain by killing each other and that it is necessary to direct their own social power against those in power.
Neither AfD nor BSW want to or can push a movement against militarization. They will not mobilize young people against the threat of conscription. They will not fight for billions to be invested in education, affordable housing, healthcare and transport. That is what leftists and trade unionists must do.
Refugee movements
The constant media and political fire against refugees cannot be explained by the figures alone. In 2023, a net total of 600,000 people migrated to Germany, far fewer than would make sense demographically. Even so-called “illegal migration” is by no means uncontrolled and rampant. In the first half of 2024, around 110,000 people entered the EU without valid documents. German authorities also describe crossing the border from a neighboring EU country as “illegal”.
The campaign is catching on because migration is also an expression of escalating global crises and conflicts. Wars lead to mass exodus. Many people suspect that much larger migratory movements will follow if the climate catastrophe makes parts of the planet uninhabitable. Today’s refugees are a preview of things to come.
The movement of refugees from Syria is a result of the defeat of the “Arab Spring” revolutions and the turning of the social revolt in Syria into an ethnic civil war. This has spawned reactionary movements on all sides, such as the “Islamic State”.
When the hope of finding solidarity-based, common solutions to social injustice or climate change fades, the hour of the right-wing dividers who preach “us” against “them” and promote the ethnicization of social issues strikes.
It is no great secret that never before in history have migration flows been stopped by walls, border regimes, repression and isolation. Under capitalism, borders are torn down through the export of capital and goods, as well as by imperialism, war and climate catastrophe. All measures against refugees only serve to divert attention from the causes of the problems and lead to division, hatred and false fronts in the destination countries.
The fight against the complete destruction of the right to asylum is not just about “humanity” or “compassion”. It is about how working people deal with the distortions of capitalism: Fighting the causes together, disempowering the rich, organizing production and distribution in solidarity. Or allow themselves to be divided according to nation, origin, religion and adopt the narrative of those in power that the only way to enforce security against “the enemies” is through isolation or military force, falsely claiming to defend the social gains that this very ruling class is destroying.
Social dismantling in the East
The AfD was heavily voted for by people who view their economic situation negatively. This is often a subjective assessment; it is not the poorest who vote for the AfD, but it appeals to disappointed hopes of advancement or “middle classes” threatened by decline. Many “ ordinary” people with lower educational qualifications, male and middle-aged employees voted for the AfD. Workers also voted for the AfD at an above-average rate.
It is a protest party to a lesser extent than in 2014, when 57% in Thuringia said they voted for the AfD out of disappointment with other parties; today the figure is only 40%.
Deindustrialization and the general decline of social infrastructure have not left the political consciousness in East Germany unscathed after 35 years of the restoration of capitalism. The East German region is not characterized by immigration, but by emigration. In addition, East German employees earn on average 14% less than their colleagues in the West. Poverty and unemployment are still higher in eastern Germany than in the west.
No wonder only two-fifths wanted to vote for “western parties” (SPD, CDU, Greens, FDP). The AfD in particular is positioning itself as a representative of East German interests. It channels the anger and dissatisfaction, which has social causes, into racist and nationalist channels. Those who feel that they can’t do anything against “those at the top” are punching down.
The left gap
The right has been able to become so strong because the left is weak. Times of crisis require clear and radical answers. The Left Party has not formulated any alternatives, but has offered itself up to do the dirty jobs in the crisis management of capitalism. Government participation in Thuringia, Berlin, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Bremen has not led to an improvement in living conditions for workers, tenants, women or refugees. When in power, the Left Party has shared responsibility for reactionary policies, such as the recent closure of the Links der Weser hospital in Bremen.
The party has become part of the political establishment, isolating itself from dissatisfaction and anger and thus making itself superfluous. The destructive actions of the party around Sahra Wagenknecht have intensified this process, but they are not the cause. Failures over Ukraine and Gaza have pushed the party over the edge, after the Left had already lost credibility as a representative of the interests of workers, tenants, the unemployed and the poor.
This is an international trend. Almost all of the new left-wing parties that have emerged since the 2000s have entered crisis because of their tepid neo-reformism. The capitulation of the then ruling Greek left-wing party Syriza in 2015 to the threats of the Troika was a turning point.
The left-wing parties did not clearly stand up for the interests of the working class. If the class issues recedes into the background and the left does not take a clear stance, then “cultural” issues take on more weight: origin, language, religion, sexual identity, on which the right divides and creates confusion, right up to the absurdity of a “culture war” over heat pumps.
Trump, Meloni, Wilders and Höcke owe their rise to this crisis on the left. They have found a relatively free field for lies, agitation and distraction. This process is also underway in France, but unlike in many countries, the polarization at the political level there is not one-sided; instead, a more radical political alternative from the left, more anchored in the working class is present, and leads, for now, a more effective battle to cut across the far right.
Is there anything left to save in the Left party?
The outgoing Thuringian Prime Minister Ramelow (Left Party) has offered to help a minority government of CDU, SPD and BSW to power, and has not ruled out a coalition. The Left Party is the decisive tip of the scales in Thuringia. If it now clings to the political center, it is doing the fight against the AfD a disservice. It is the indistinguishability of the established parties from each other that the AfD can exploit. Its image as a protest party guarantees its success.
The Left must prevent the AfD from coming into government. For that concrete task, it can elect a CDU Prime Minister and even vote for individual proposals of a CDU-led minority government if they are in the interests of working people. But it must not take responsibility for the reactionary policies of this government, not for budget cuts, not for racist policies against refugees or the arming of the police. It must neither participate in the government nor sign toleration or tolerance agreements. If it does not draw this clear line with the pro-capitalist parties, it will eventually be superfluous in Thuringia.
The Ramelow government has not been able to implement any improvements for workers, young people or the climate. So why vote for them? The only hope of Ramelow and State Secretary and top reformist strategist Benjamin Hoff was to rely on voters wanting to prevent the AfD: “Bodo or barbarism”. This “strategy” failed — except in the larger cities such as Jena, Weimar and Erfurt — and not only because the BSW attracted an enormous number of disappointed older Linke voters. 39,000 Linke voters went straight to the CDU in order to fight the barbarism of the AfD. 23,000 preferred barbarism and voted for the AfD — in this case probably more out of disappointment and protest than ideological conviction.
In Saxony, the Left Party plummeted from 27% to 9% in opinion polls on which party was “most likely to ensure social justice”. They only made slight gains, among under 34-year-olds. The Left Party is stronger in the major cities and was able to win two direct, life-saving mandates in Leipzig. In addition, those who have lived in Saxony for longer were less likely to vote for Die Linke. Younger newcomers in the big cities in particular voted for the party — probably for anti-fascist reasons.
The long-lasting downward trend of the Left Party in Saxony, from 23.6% (2004), 18.9% (2014), 10.4% (2019) to now 4.5%, began with the approval of the privatization of public housing in Dresden and Zwickau in 2004. In 2014, the Dresdner Neueste Nachrichten wrote: “For those who want to hit back at ‘those up there’, the East German Left has long been far too tame”. Nothing fundamental has changed in this respect; when it comes to war and peace, the majority of the eastern Left has buckled even further to the bourgeois mainstream. The path of adaptation to the bourgeois political establishment is the path of self-destruction for the left.
A Left party in this form is not an instrument for working people who want to improve their living situation. Of course, the problems of the Left are not only home-made. Decades without successful class struggles have had an effect, as has the injection of racist narratives with great momentum, fueled above all by the bourgeois parties from the CDU to the Greens, who outdid themselves with fantasies of deportations. But a Left that limits itself to moral opposition on this issue, as important as that is, is not enough to put forward an effective counter-narrative. The members of the left party, the activists and above all the trade unions in East Germany now have a special responsibility to combine the fight against the right with the fight against militarization and cuts.
The situation is serious
The AfD is a factor in pushing the country to the right, advancing the division of the working class along ethnic or religious lines or cultural issues. As a large minority in Thuringia and a government-in-waiting in both states, it now has far more opportunities to do so — propagandistically, financially, institutionally.
It is not driving the bourgeois parties in front of it; they are running at full speed, of their own accord, in the same direction on the issue of refugees and asylum. They outdo each other daily with slogans about dangers, terror and the limitation of “illegal” or any migration, stirring up fears, fueling the mood and thus giving the AfD a voice. When all the bourgeois parties are competing to see who can best copy the AfD rhetoric, many prefer the “original”.
Many hoped in 2015 that Merkel would be right with her “We can do it”, in reference to absorbing refugees. But in order to “manage that”, extensive public investment would have had to take place. Daycare centers, schools, the healthcare system and public transport should have been expanded, financed by the millionaires and billionaires who have become so much richer since then. Renewable energies should have been expanded extensively to create skilled jobs. Public housing should have been created to prevent a situation where those born here and those recently arrived have to compete in a tight housing market.
Today, frustration with ailing capitalism, which is becoming more unjust by the day, is combined with the huge wave of propaganda against refugees that all parties to the right of the Left party are promoting. Refugees have been successfully framed by them as scapegoats for the failure of the system, which is responsible for unaffordable housing, inflation, low-paid jobs and a decaying infrastructure.
The hundreds of thousands of people who have fled to Germany to escape violence and war, who are traumatized and isolated, are far too often not provided with adequate psychological or social work support. When a tiny minority become violent, it is an alarm signal that this support needs to be improved. People without prospects, marginalized and unstable people are more susceptible to violent ideologies. Helping them is a more sustainable solution than deporting the problem.
According to the federal government’s decision, refugees who have to leave for another EU country under the Dublin agreements are to be deprived of funds and are effectively being starved. The CDU is now calling for this regulation to be extended to “tolerated persons”, i.e. refugees who do not have an individual right to asylum but are not deported due to the situation in their country of origin. This harassment drives people into despair and some directly into crime because they have no other way of making a living. This brutalized state racism does not solve any problems, but deepens the existing divisions by pushing people into situations that threaten their existence.
The growth of the AfD has not yet been accompanied by a corresponding growth in far-right violence. But make no mistake: the breakthroughs in Saxony and Thuringia will embolden organized Nazi gangs and racist mobs. The attacks on the pride march in Bautzen and the Nazi mobilization against pride even in the leftist Leipzig are clear warnings. The fascists have diversified their incitement; in addition to migrants, queer people and climate activists are also at risk. Ultimately, right-wing violence is directed against the entire left and the organized labour movement.
Despite the rise of the AfD, openly fascist forces to their right have also been able to score points in some regions of Saxony. The “Free Saxons” won 2.2% statewide (over 52,000 votes) and a whopping 4% in the constituency of Sächsische Schweiz/Erzgebirge IV.
What to do?
The AfD has a base of staunch supporters. It is becoming a government option for the ruling class. We will not be able to push them back in the short term, but need a long-term strategy. Classic ‘antifa’ politics that explains that Höcke is a fascist and the AfD is dangerous is no longer enough. Demonstrations can play a role in bringing together anti-fascist forces, but they will not stop the AfD. However, it may become necessary to organize self-defence against racist and Nazi attacks.
The shift to the right, nationalism and militarization are marching across the globe in leaps and bounds and do not stop at Germany. The imperialist bloc confrontation determines the world situation, fuels regional conflicts, threatens to destroy entire economies, prevents the fight against the human task of stopping climate change and endangers the livelihood of all.
At the beginning of the First World War, Rosa Luxemburg wrote that bourgeois society faced a dilemma: either transition to socialism or relapse into barbarism. The anti-fascist movement, the trade unions and the left can no longer close their eyes to this dilemma.
Clear opposition to it is needed more urgently than ever. The racism of the AfD and all the bourgeoisie who outwardly distance themselves from it, but loudly sing along to its song, cannot be opposed without also opposing nationalism, militarism, the associated social cuts and the root of all this, capitalism.
We oppose these conditions with a program that expresses the interests of all wage earners, regardless of origin and gender: Against rearmament, against all social cuts. Defend jobs, reorganize production. The rich must pay, the big corporations must be expropriated and democratically controlled. This is the only way we can dig up the ground on which the right-wing is currently able to build its strength, seemingly unstoppably.
