Sweden and Finland joining NATO is a big win for the war alliance led by US imperialism. The two states add strong military power, advanced technology and arms industries, NATO control over the Baltic Sea and an advanced position in the coming battles over the Arctic.
This is one of the strongest additions to NATO since West Germany joined in 1955, a move that triggered the formation of the Warsaw Pact, the opposing military alliance led by the Soviet Union.
While Norway and Denmark were founding members of NATO in 1949, both Sweden and Finland stood aside. Sweden had not participated in the Second World War, in reality mainly based on huge concessions and trade with Nazi Germany, but in mass consciousness it was seen as a result of the official neutrality policy, which had a base in the strong labour movement. In Finland, the leading political parties and the ruling class feared provoking Moscow, while the Soviet Union also became its largest trading partner.
The ruling capitalist classes in both the NATO countries and in Sweden and Finland had long given up on the countries joining the war alliance. Not even the conservative US-supporting parties campaigned for membership. In Sweden there was a majority against NATO affiliation all the time up to January 2022, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
However, it never meant these states were actually neutral. Swedish politicians had a certain freedom, for example to heavily criticise the US war in Vietnam, but their real position was “we know where we belong”, including on intelligence and military cooperation.
This became more official and the relationship became closer with the collapse of Stalinism. Eastern European states joined NATO and in 1994 both Sweden and Finland became members of NATO’s “Partnership for Peace” programme. The Swedish government’s website describes what this meant: “Through participation in NATO-led operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq, the Swedish Armed Forces has also adapted to NATO’s military standards and developed interoperability. Sweden has taken part in NATO training and exercises within the framework of partnership with NATO. Sweden has also hosted NATO-led training and exercises, and cooperates with NATO on standardization and capability development.” In 2016, Sweden signed a Host Nation agreement with NATO, to give green light for joint exercises in Sweden.
Still, the opinion polls showed no strong support for Sweden joining NATO. In 2021, 29% were in favour and 29% against. This was completely changed by the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine 24 February 2022. Instead of weakening NATO, Putin’s attack gave a green light to pro-NATO agitation, especially given the political weakness of the Left and the labour movement. There was no movement against imperialism and militarism, advocating internationalism, in the tradition of the left within the Swedish labour movement, such as the strong worker’s movement against joining WW1, the solidarity movement for Spanish workers in the 1930s civil war, the 1950s movement that defeated proposals for a Swedish nuclear bomb and the mainly youth movement against the Vietnam war. In 2003, there was another strong youth movement, led by the Swedish section of ISA (then called the CWI), against the US war in Iraq.
At the Social Democratic Congress in November 2021, defence minister Peter Hultqvist stated there would be no application to join NATO as long as there is a Social Democratic government. Less than a half year later, the application was handed in. The massive propaganda, a “shock doctrine”, about a possible Russian attack on Sweden, did not meet any strong organized resistance and could rely on a general low level of consciousness and confusion.
Support for joining NATO increased from 29% to 64%, and opposition to NATO fell from 29% to 14%. This affected all forces in society. The racist Sweden Democrats saw the possibility to win real power and rapidly changed its position to be in favour of NATO. Just before the war, the party leader Jimmie Åkesson, had abstained on a question whether he supported Putin or Biden.
The Left Party also followed the flow. On Sweden sending arms to Ukraine, the party’s MPs first voted no, but within days this was overruled by the party leadership. The Left Party has since supported every one of the massive military support packages to Ukraine. The party also argues in favour of the huge increase in the size of the military and supported military spending rising rapidly to 2% of GDP. While not dropping its official position of No to NATO, the Left Party has not campaigned against and basically accepted the membership. In 2021, when the government was defeated over market rents in a campaign where Socialistiskt Alternativ (ISA in Sweden) played a key role, the Left Party rose to 12%, now it is down to 7–8%.
Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in May 2022. A year later Finland became a member, but Sweden was blocked for another year by the rulers in Turkey and Hungary. In this period, the Swedish government did everything to please Erdogan and Orban. All previous criticism was dropped. Kurdish organizations became the target of new counterterrorism laws and the arms export embargo against Turkey was lifted. Hungary was offered another four Gripen fighter jets. Following some more concessions from the US and the EU, formal Swedish membership in NATO was granted 7 March 2024.
Fighter jets and high-tech arms industry
Sweden and Finland joining NATO is not about the military alliance wanting to protect those countries. It’s about strengthening NATO, which both states will do.
The two countries will add more than 150 fighter jets to NATO, more than both the UK and Germany. The air force is closely coordinated, following an agreement from 2023, with Norway and Denmark, making up a total force of over 200 jets, with more in production. This will lighten the load for the US air force in the region.
Only Russia and Germany have larger navies in the Baltic Sea than Sweden. Its submarines are described as “world-class’”, with two new very expensive ones arriving in 2028. NATO also now gains from new knowledge of the Baltic Sea and its coasts.
Finland claims to have “Western Europe’s strongest artillery”, with more howitzers and other pieces of equipment than for example the UK. With compulsory military service, it also has a huge reserve army of 280,000.
Sweden’s military expenditure is increasing dramatically, doubling from 2019 and already reaching the NATO demand of 2% of GDP. Alongside NATO, the Swedish government has also signed bilateral military cooperation deals with the UK and the US, as well as a strategic partnership with France.
NATO is also very pleased with Sweden’s advanced high technology military-industrial complex. Huge exports meant that Swedish artillery was used on both sides in wars in former Yugoslavia and between India and Pakistan. The arms industry was established during the period of official neutrality.
This is part of the Swedish model of close cooperation between the state and big business. Swedish multinational companies — now many are foreign-owned — have benefitted from state support and demand, as well as centralized wage agreements they could easily afford, guaranteeing high profit levels. Following the neo-liberal period, state subsidies are back in full scale, in Sweden and internationally. In the last few years, the Swedish government has launched several new initiatives regarding cyber defence, involving universities, the military and private companies.
Saab, the producer of the JAS Gripen fighter jet, was ranked 39th largest arms manufacturer globally in 2022, on a chart where 25 companies of those larger than Saab are from the US or Chinese. The UK company BAE, 5th largest in the world, has over 1,600 workers in its Swedish factory producing military vehicles. Another well known Swedish weapon is the Carl Gustaf anti-tank rifle.
The Swedish military industry is “One of the largest in Europe, Sweden’s defense industry amounted to $3 billion in 2022 with exports of defense material totaling over $2 billion. 28,000 people are employed by Sweden’s defense industry, a figure likely to rise” (US think tank, the Wilson Center). The expected increase is based on both Swedish spending increasing and new exports markets following NATO accession.The expansion of the Swedish military also includes that “the annual number of recruits will increase from 5,500 to 10,000 and will give Sweden one of the largest reserve forces in the Alliance. It is also planning to reactivate civilian conscription in an effort to bolster its personnel and boost its defensive capabilities” (Wilson Center).
Geopolitics and the Cold War
The intensifying New Cold War between US and Chinese imperialism is the central cause of the new expansion of NATO. Despite still formally being a North Atlantic alliance, focus has become increasingly global. At the NATO summit in Madrid 2022, the governments of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea were invited for the first time as part of building up the bloc against China.
With Sweden and Finland joining, NATO achieves important geostrategic goals, including almost complete control of the Baltic Sea, now called a “NATO lake”. Russia only controls the port areas around St Petersburg and Kaliningrad. NATO now controls the strait of Øresund, the main strait connecting the North Sea to the Baltic Sea.
In the Baltic Sea, the Swedish island of Gotland is described as an unsinkable aircraft carrier. It is close to the Baltic states — and Russia — and Swedish military build up has already started there. The Swedish navy has combat boats and submarines made for the Baltic Sea, and its troops are used to the Baltic archipelagos. Most other NATO forces have no such navy or seaborn capability.
For the Baltic states and Eastern Europe, Sweden is also seen as a perfect area to store supplies and use as transit.
The new NATO member states give further advantages against China and Russia in the Arctic. The large region has become more important with climate change melting the ice. It’s a region with rich natural resources (oil, gas and minerals) with possible new sea lanes to shorten transport distances. Of the member states in the Arctic Council (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, the Russian Federation, and the US), seven are now members of NATO. Alongside Russia stands of course the Chinese regime, ready to exploit the region. This is a key arena of the New Cold War, with neither bloc caring about the environmental disasters that will follow.
Northern Sweden has also become more important, as Russia’s important bases and nuclear storage in the northwest of the country are expanded. The north is also the basis for the Swedish mining industry, from the traditional iron ore to rare earth metals, of which Sweden has the largest found quantity in Europe. Both the EU and NATO will put strong pressure on the Swedish state to open new areas for exploitation. Northern Sweden is already a region with a number of large “green” industrial projects, including steel industries and a large battery factory.
NATO is also a winner in another Cold War area, telecoms technology, securing globally-leading 5G companies Ericsson (Sweden) and Nokia (Finland). Their earlier main competitor, Chinese Huawei, has already lost most of Western markets.
Sweden and NATO
Swedish NATO membership constitutes a peak in the political counter revolution the capitalist class have forced through over the last decades, following destruction of welfare, privatisation, rapidly increased inequality, a weakened left and labour movement, added to by racist polices. This momentum will continue for a time.
The propaganda for militarisation was escalated early 2024, with public appeals from government ministers to “prepare for war”. Just before the new year, a new deal with US imperialism — Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) — gave the latter permanent and unimpeded
access to 17 military bases in Sweden. In contrast to Finland and Norway, the Swedish government has not decided on any restrictions about nuclear weapons in the country.
The right wing government consists of three parties, with the racist Sweden Democrats outside but de facto directing the others. Social Democracy in opposition gives full support to NATO, militarisation and the close military cooperation with US imperialism. This lays the ground for a kick start into NATO, with 600 troops planned to be sent to Latvia next year and Gripen fighter jets being used in the Baltics and Finland, and maybe exported to Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine will be exploited maximally, and lessons learned from the war will cause new big waves in military spending, especially on drones.
Opposition to NATO and militarisation is so far weak, but will most likely grow from growing discontent with the general direction of society and increased struggle from below. Resistance to cuts and austerity will contrast to the enormous flow of money to the military, as well as to super profits capitalists in arms industries and banks. Nationalism will be opposed by international solidarity, with US imperialism showing its real face in supporting the massacre in Gaza.
Socialists explain how NATO is the war machine of US imperialism and capitalism that in no way increases security or secure peace. This will get increased echo and support with new crises and struggles, underlining that there are no national solutions. From this follows the need for internationalism and real democratic socialism
