While news reports over the last year have been dominated by the war in Ukraine, then attacks on Gaza, little attention has been paid to the situation in the Balkans, particularly the countries of the former Yugoslavia. The last year has seen disputed elections, changing international allegiances, a dispute over car licence plates which led to army mobilisations, imperialist intervention to change election results, the growth of nationalist and right-wing forces. And, of course, the region has directly suffered the consequences of the Ukraine war. Despite all this the region has also seen its fair share of struggle and protests.
The region’s economy, of course, cannot exist outside of the global market and its conditions. Although the region saw a decline of its GDP as the pandemic spread across the world, it has recovered significantly since then, in part because of the region’s location as a source of cheap labour for the larger EU industrial economies, benefiting to a degree by the shortening of supply lines as near-shoring intensifies, and also making gains from the diversion of energy supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, behind the glossy outlook painted by the World Bank for the region, it is still experiencing high — over 10% — inflation and a 12% unemployment rate.
At the centre on inter-imperialist struggle
Although surrounded by European Union members, only Slovenia and Croatia have been accepted as members of the EU. This does not mean that western imperialism has no interest in the region. The EU, as well as the US, is constantly attempting to influence the situation in the region, and have increasingly appeased the leaders of Serbia and Croatia, and in doing so encouraged Serbian and Croatian nationalism in an attempt to lessen Russian influence in the region.
Although the remaining countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro and North Macedonia, have been identified as future members, the EU demands the implementation of economic and government reforms, and in its November 23 Accession plan, it agreed to start accession talks, which could last many years, only with Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and BiH. This has been met in the latter with a high degree of scepticism — one commentator said: “When measured against the gap between the professed European integration mantras of domestic politicians and concrete reform efforts, this tune could well become the anthem of a protracted exhaustion in meeting the preliminary conditions even to commence the process.” To further its interests in the West Balkans, the EU has allocated 31 billion euros for projects since 2017.
Naturally the EU is competing with other imperialist interests in the region, which was once torn between the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires. Then other imperialist forces operated in alliance with local forces — Russia encouraging Greater Serbian aspirations, and France linked with Greater Romanian expansion.
Today, although the US, which in general wants to leave the EU responsibility for stabilising the region, through its own actions is creating new conflicts and divisions. In November, for example, US Ambassador Jeffrey Hovenier weighed in to support the Franco-German plan to persuade the Kosovo government to recognise the “Association of Serb-majority Municipalities” in the north of Kosovo, which many fear would become a new Republika Srpska.
Today Turkiye is trying to extend its influence in the region using energy supplies. Erdogan has been positioning Turkiye as an ‘energy hub’, for the transport of hydrocarbons from Iran, Central Asia and Azerbaijan. In the Autumn a new deal was agreed between Erdogan, Serbia’s Vučić, Dodik from Republika Srpska and Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev facilitated by Hungary’s Viktor Orban to pump a further billion cubic metres of gas from Turkey through the Balkans to Hungary. This is in addition to the volumes already pumped through pipelines such as “Turkstream” to the Southern Balkans and Italy. It is no secret that these routes act as a backdoor for Russian oil and gas into Europe.
Russia is, of course, actively working to build support in the region. It has traditionally had strong ties to Serbia, which, despite expressing anger that the Kremlin used the West’s support for Kosovo to justify its attack on Ukraine, has not, together with Bosnia and Bulgaria, supported anti-Russia sanctions. It even signed a three-year contract for Russia to supply it with gas.
Situated as it is between Asia and Western Europe, the region is an extremely convenient transit route for the grey economy, money laundering and people smuggling, whilst rich Russians (and Ukrainians) are buying up property and passports, and opening bank accounts in the region. But Russia’s authority has been undermined after its invasion of Ukraine. Even Vučić is increasingly pragmatic in his dealings with the Kremlin.
And naturally China is trying to take advantage of the situation. China and Russia maintain common interests on diplomatic issues in the West Balkans, seeing it as a region at the forefront of the growing bipolarisation of the world. They both oppose, for example, recognition of Kosovan independence, or further EU expansion. But China is also playing an increasing role in the region’s economy, not so much because it is a large market for Chinese goods, but because it is a stepping stone to the much larger European market. Under the Belt and Road Initiative it has invested or loaned over $30 billion to these countries. Scandals have erupted over the highly expensive, and unfinished highway in Montenegro, and it took US intervention to prevent the Chinese take-over of the Port of Rijeka in Croatia, elsewhere it has been building roads, strengthening the energy infrastructure and mineral extraction.
Recent reports are revealing once again that none of the imperialist powers are interested in the rights of workers. US and EU pressure has been instrumental in the relaxation of employment laws in the region, allowing companies more opportunities to exploit, particularly immigrant, workers. Indian workers first recruited in Chennai to work for a Miami registered company in Serbia were forced before the pandemic to organise a hunger strike when they were not paid for months, while workers from the Balkans often find themselves working in near-slave conditions in EU countries. One of the biggest scandals broke in 2021 when almost 500 Vietnamese workers, employed by the Chinese Linglong company, were having to live in illegal containers, were not getting paid and had their passports confiscated. So desperate, many attempted to escape from the site naked and barefoot.
Fraudulent election in Serbia
The end of December in Serbia was dominated by protests led by the organisation “Srbija-protiv-nasilja” (Serbia against violence) and the student organisation “Borba” (Struggle). The students organised a blockade of the Ministry of State Administration with the demand for a rerun of the 17 December Parliamentary and Belgrade City elections, although it seems protests were later wound down, according to one of the organisers to become “meaningful blockades” including educational sessions on activists’ rights, the election process, movies, stand-up comedy and cooking sessions”.
Since the “Bulldozer revolution”, despite its name the first of the ‘coloured revolutions’, overthrew Slobodan Milosovic in 2000 a key issue in elections has been Serbia’s international orientation. In the years immediately after 2000, openly liberal, pro EU parties dominated election results. But by 2014, with the failure of these parties to deliver, the “Serbia must not stop” (SNS) coalition led by the current President Alexandar Vučić won a majority of seats and has been in power since.
Vučić was formerly a member of a far-right party which called for Greater Serbian nationalism. To maintain power, on several occasions his SNS block has maintained its majority in coalition with the misnamed Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) formerly led by Milosovic.
Although essentially a right-wing populist Vučić and his regime is based on a quasi-patriotic, nationalism paradigm, with a servile attitude to all the imperialist powers. He has continued negotiations with the EU, including the privatisation of state companies and economic liberalisation while insisting that he wants Serbia to maintain good relations with China and Russia. In part this is due to the mood of his electoral base, which together with that of the SPS is conservative, anti-EU and pro-Russian and against any retreat from patriarchal and ‘traditional’ family values, opinions which are strengthened by the memory of the brutal NATO bombing of Belgrade. Serbians are now more euro-sceptic and opposed to NATO than at any time since the 1990s. Vučić’s rule has seen increased authoritarian measures and restrictions on the press, including a copy of Russia’s law against “Foreign agents”.
Although the opposition block “Serbia without Violence” won by far its best vote in the Parliamentary election since 2014 with 24% nationally and 34% in Belgrade it is clear there was widespread vote manipulation, reminiscent of the practices used by Russia’s ruling elite. Up to 40,000 ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo were reportedly bussed into Belgrade to support Vučić. It is this that is fuelling the current protests.
“Serbia without Violence” was formed out of the large-scale protests that followed a school massacre and shooting spree in May. Many blamed the government’s justification of violence for the deaths. It is a coalition of pro EU and liberal parties and organisations, supported also by the Trade Union “Sloga” and the “Green-Left Front”, in many ways basing its approach on that of the opposition in the 1990s, with a rhetoric calling on Serbians to “live like in the normal world”, referring to the EU. Its election programme includes many populist measures aimed at alleviating economic hardship including the restriction of prices for basic items, raising the basic wage, and taxing the rich and excess profits.
But these are empty words, they propose forming a “technical government” to organise new democratic elections. But the reality is that SPN is still a pro-capitalist force defending the interests of the Serbian bourgeoisie, telling people that there is no alternative to the EU. They ignore that the earlier liberal government with its privatisation and other reforms left behind an army of unemployed, the destruction of the domestic banking sector and social assets almost completely privatised. Its position on Kosovo, which it describes as an integral part of Serbia, is that it should not be independent.
Although protests over the election have died down at the time of writing, other issues keep raising their heads. As elsewhere in Europe, in Germany, Romania and France, Serbian farmers have been protesting at the lack of subsidies for their products. Hundreds of journalists and media workers protested in Belgrade in early February after the Court of Appeal acquitted 4 State Security officials of the murder, in 1999 of opposition journalist Slavko Curuvija. Concern too is growing that Rio Tinto is planning to restore a major, ecologically damaging Lithium mining project in the Jadar valley that had been stopped after widespread opposition in 2022.
Kosovo — no genuine independence
Western imperialism’s role during the period of military unrest in Kosovo is a perfect example of its hypocrisy. Initially in February 1998, US envoy to the Balkans, Robert Gelbard, called Kosovo “an integral part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia”, labelling the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK) a terrorist organisation. This effectively gave Milosevic the green light to invade. The US later turned against Milosovic. In the late 1990s, it, together with EU imperialism, openly supported Kosovo in its war with Serbia, going so far as to order aerial bombing of Belgrade by NATO forces. Since then, and particularly after independence in 2008, Kosovo has acted as a loyal ally of the West, opening an embassy in Jerusalem, and allowing the building of a large NATO base in the country.
Now as the geopolitical map of the world is changing, tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are again growing. After unrest earlier in 2023 in which several UN peacekeeping troops were injured, last summer, what seemed to be a minor issue over whether the Serbian population in northern Kosovo could use Serbian car number plates ended with elections boycotted by the Serbians. The Kosovo government then sent the police to support the pro-Albanian mayors elected on a 4% turnout. Roadblocks were set up and the Serbian army mobilised to the border. Many Kosovans felt betrayed when Blinken phoned to instruct the government to withdraw the mayors.
Now a new conflict is developing. Although not officially a member of the eurozone, many Kosovans use the Euro currency, whilst the Serb minority still use, and rely on the Serbian dinar. The Pristina government has, since the first of February tried to ban the use of the dinar, causing a new wave of discontent.
Western imperialism is concerned partly because the current Kosovo’s President is Albin Kurti, who spent several periods in prison and under house arrest by the UN/EU occupation authorities for his role in campaigning for a referendum over self-determination. Although he is now demonstrating, despite opposition from below, his support for the massacre in Gaza, he is nevertheless unwilling to retreat from his demand for a “direct-democracy referendum” to allow Kosovo to unify with Albania and this worries imperialism.
This means that the west, while trying to pull the Vučić government in Belgrade away from the China-Russia axis, is pressuring the Pristina government to at least maintain the shaky status-quo, or even relieve its pressure on the Serbian minority. The US calls Vučić a ‘good partner’, and the EU considers him a ‘friend’. It was such cynical manoeuvring by the imperialists in the 1990s that encouraged those such as Milosovic to step up their aggression, leading to the disastrous wars in former Yugoslavia.
Right-wing nationalism in Montenegro — the Black Mountains
NATO member Montenegro too has become a new geopolitical battleground. In 2019, 14 people including several Serbian citizens and two Russian intelligence officers were sent to prison allegedly for attempting to organise a coup three years earlier. But this did not stop conflict. Their sentences were quashed after the 2020 election presidential and parliamentary elections, which were won by Milo Djakanovic and his party, the misnamed “Democratic Socialist Party”, the social-democratic successor to the former ruling communists.
Djakanovic started as a Milosovic ally, before promoting Montenegrin nationalism and then taking the country close to the EU and into NATO. He and his party, following growing discontent with corruption were defeated in the Spring 2023 elections. It took nearly six months for the new premier Milojko Spajić and his “Europe Now Movement” (PES) to form a new government, which was only possible with the support of the pro-Russian and pro-Serbian forces “For the Future of Montenegro” (ZBCG).
The ZBCG leader, Andrija Mandić, one of those jailed in 2019 has become Speaker of the Parliament. A Chetnik (Serbian fascist) warlord, he has declared he wants a referendum for Montnegro to rejoin Serbia. Once again, western imperialism to appease Vučić has turned a blind eye to these events in Montenegro.
Not so the population of this country. In December dozens of activists protested outside the court as a man who beat his pregnant wife to death received only a short sentence. In February, teachers are planning a strike as previous pay rises promised have not been paid. Now under pressure the new education minister is promising to increase their salaries by 15%.
In Bosnia the suppressed national question threatens new conflict
Imperialism however has been even more cynical in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH). The 1995 US sponsored Dayton Peace Accord which ended the Bosnian war was based like many other ‘solutions’ such as the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland or power sharing in Lebanon on enshrining sectarian division into the state. Since then, the government has been balanced between the increasingly nationalist parties of the three communities — Bosniak, Croatian and Serbian overseen by the UN “High Representative”, currently Christian Schmidt.
The 2022 elections though saw the rejection of this three party balancing act which has overseen a growth of corruption and inter-ethnic tension. Parties that Al Jazeera exaggeratingly describe as ‘left-wing, anti-nationalist’ won significant votes. On the day of the election Schmidt announced that the election rules had changed, leaving power in the hands of the pro-Croatian HDZ (Christian democratic party) which won just 15% of the vote.
This is leading to a dramatic increase in tension in the Serbian enclave of Republika Srpska (RS). It is not just boycotting the negotiations over BiH joining the EU and refusing to recognise the country’s constitutional court, last year saw more open celebrations by Serbian nationalists over the Srebrenica massacre. Whilst the Republika Srpska head, Milorad Dodik, warns that if the West continues to interfere in Bosnia’s affairs, he could declare the region independent, the US continues to aggravate the situation. Just days before RS marked its “Republic Day” in January, two F16 fighter jets flew along its southern border accompanied by statements issued by the US that the “Bosnia-Herzegovina Constitution provides no right of secession, and [the US] will act if anyone tries to change this basic element of the Dayton peace agreements that ended the 1992–95 war”.
Against this background of nationalist conflict and imperialist intervention though, class struggle is raising its head in BiH. In November two thousand workers at Arcelor Mittal went on strike demanding higher wages, they were joined by workers at the two Olip footwear factories. Meanwhile thousands of health-workers went on strike demanding a 30% wage increase. These follow last August’s nationwide protests after a man murdered his ex-wife live on Instagram.
Croatia — member of EU
The actions of the UN ‘High representative’ and the US are encouraging Vučić’s plans to build an alliance of Serbian regions — a Greater Serbia. In January he announced that the Serbian parliament will discuss reintroducing conscription.
At the same time the ruling in favour of the pro-Croation HDZ in BiH has strengthened nationalistic forces in Croatia itself. Croatia has just joined the Eurozone and Schengen, and workers will probably pay the price. In what is described as a “super-election year” with Parliamentary, Presidential and EU elections due, many Croatians are concerned about the rising cost of living and threat of a new global recession. In a country with the potential for the production of much energy using renewable sources, there is also discontent that, instead, the government is investing in a new LNG terminal.
The year has opened with a continuing conflict between President Zoran Milanovic, who heads the “Social Democratic Party” — which grew out of the former ruling communist party, and Premier Andrej Plenković of the Christian Democratic Party (HDZ) originally set up by the right-wing nationalist war leader Franjo Tudman.
Milanovic is increasingly moving in an anti-NATO direction — recently attacking the west for arming Ukraine and is increasingly seen as pro-Russian. The HDZ, resting on its pro-EU strategy, has been racked by numerous corruption scandals in the past period. To counter this, the government has proposed a new “gagging law”, which will seriously restrict the ability of journalists to report such issues. At the end of January, the Croatian Journalists Association organised a series of protests against this legislation that its President, Hrvoje Zovko, says will turn Croatia into “a shell of democracy”.
Two other parties are vying for third place — the far-right “Homeland Movement” and the left-leaning “Mozemo” (We Can) block. Mozemo is an alliance of soft-left, green and left liberal groups that presents itself as pro-EU, pro-worker formed before the previous election. At one stage during the pandemic polls indicated it was vying with the SDP for second place, but it since fallen to about 10%. Although it has said it will not form a joint election block with the SDP, its turn to the right combined with its reliance on parliamentary tactics and its record over the past five years mean it has lost momentum.
As elsewhere in the region workers too have been in action. Last July workers at the Ministry of Justice struck for an unprecedented 52 days, now in February doctors are preparing to take action.
Slovenia — suffering from global warming
Although Slovenia does not strictly fall in the Western Balkans region, it was a key part of the former Yugoslavia. Compared to the other states, Slovenia, on the southern edge of the Alps, has been relatively stable but has suffered badly from global warming.
In August the country experienced widespread, and destructive flooding. Many Slovenians believe that the government is not doing enough to address the issue. A recent poll suggested that 71% support measures to fight global warming at least as strict as those used to combat Covid. This feeling is stronger among women and low-income groups. As elsewhere, Slovenia too is facing serious worker protests. Judges, prosecutors, administration staff have been involved in action over low pay, while in January, doctors have taken 17 days of strike action in pursuit of a 30% pay claim.
North Macedonia — elections looming
North Macedonia is a member of NATO, but Greece is blocking EU membership on the grounds that it considers Macedonia part of its own country. Since the protests in 2022 against moves to progress negotiations on joining the EU, the country’s politics continue to be divided along national lines — 60% consider themselves Macedonian, 25% Albanians. At the end of January, the pro-EU Social-democratic government resigned, with elections called for May. It is accused of incompetence, corruption and cronyism by the main opposition block the, wait for it, incredibly named “Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization — Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity” (VMRO-DPMNE), which is a Macedonian nationalist right-wing conservative coalition.
It played a large part in the 2022 protests. It was joined by Levica (The Left) which won 4% and 2 deputies in the last election. It speaks with a radical position on many questions, but is pro-China, supports Russia’s war against Ukraine and does not recognise the right to self-determination of national minorities. Levica’s leader, Dimitar Apasiev, has expressed willingness to participate in a coalition government — the only ‘red line’ he has expressed is that the government should refuse to recognise the “Prespa agreement” with Greece over the use of the name “Macedonia” in which he defended a nationalist position.
What was not covered in the international media though has been the threat to strike in January of this year by the country’s air-traffic controllers against the hiring of unqualified controllers nominated by the ruling party. Only the sacking of two out of three of the top managers led to the strike suspension.
Is there a way out of this situation?
There is no country in the world that can develop in isolation from the global situation, indeed from the very start of the workers’ movement internationally, the solution for the division of the Balkans has been seen as the formation of a democratic, socialist Balkan Federation.
The experience of the “Socialist” Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY), the Romanian “Socialist” Republic, and the other Stalinist regimes have, of course, left their mark on the region. Originally built to mirror the bureaucratic, repressive regime of Stalin’s Soviet Union, the introduction of a centralised, planned economy allowed the development of the region. This, together with Tito’s careful balancing between the nationalities allowed a period of relatively peaceful development. A planned economy, however, requires complete workers’ democracy, like, as Trotsky said, the human body needs oxygen. As the economy began to stagnate, rather than introduce workers’ democracy, which would have needed a political revolution against the bureaucratic elite, the same elite relied on market mechanisms, and increasingly nationalist policies that led to the collapse of the SFRY and other Stalinist states in the region.
It was this restoration of capitalism and the increasing split of the ruling elite along reactionary nationalist lines as they fought to keep power and control over the wealth of society, exacerbated by the intervention of the different imperialist powers that led to the horrific inter-ethnic wars and attacks of the 1990s. Inherent in the current situation, when capitalism cannot guarantee the harmonious development of the economy, climate and rights of the oppressed, with the strengthening of authoritarian measures and right-wing nationalism combined with the struggle between different imperialist interests is the horrible spectre of new conflicts in the Western Balkans.
In the period when the wars of the 1990s were developing, Peter Hadden of the CWI (now ISA) warned that the only way to stop this happening was to build an independent working-class force to lead the struggle based on working-class unity. As the war in Bosnia was breaking out he explained: “the only way out is through the unity of the working class which was displayed at the outset of this conflict. Armed defence linked to a programme for a democratic socialist Bosnia and appeal to both Serb and Croat forces could begin to cut across the reactionary nationalism and the genocidal tendencies which exist.”
Without this, he said the alternative is further bloodshed, permanent instability, the emergence of autocratic local capitalist states, and the domination of the entire area by the major capitalist powers. Thirty years later, it seems this is still the future facing the working class and youth of the Western Balkans, which raises the urgent need to build a revolutionary alternative able to build and unite working class organisations in the region to fight independently for their own interests, against capitalism and reactionary nationalism and for a genuinely democratic, socialist federation, as part of a wider socialist federation of the world.