The war that began on 7 October has drawn in all the imperialist powers and blocs. The risk of a wider war is great.
US imperialism has been forced to drastically increase its presence in the region. Washington now has two aircraft carriers (with room for 50–75 fighter jets each) and over 30,000 troops, with bases in Bahrain and Qatar. Qatar has entered into several agreements with Israel to provide aid to Gaza, ostensibly as part of an effort to stabilise Gaza somewhat. When Qatar is now criticised for funding Hamas, the regime responds by pointing out that Hamas’ headquarters in the country were established with the blessing of the US.
The Cold War
In parallel with the fighting in Ukraine (part of the New Cold War) and escalation around Taiwan, there is now a risk of the new war expanding into the entire region of the Middle East. The regimes involved have no real short-term interest in war, but the increased tensions have their own dynamics. Clearly, the risk has increased.
On the other side of the Cold War, Chinese imperialism has increased its influence in the region through trade, economics and diplomacy. Beijing has not condemned the Hamas attack on 7 October, and Hamas leaders have visited Putin in Moscow.
The US and EU have made their full support for Israel clear, even if public opinion and political concerns force them to make some distinctions on humanitarian considerations.
Iran and allies
The biggest concern for Washington and the Netanyahu government is the behavior of the regime in Iran and its ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Iran’s president has warned that Israel had “crossed red lines” that must be responded to. Iranian-backed groups have fired rockets at US troops in Syria and Iraq, as well as at Israel, which has been responded to by US and Israeli bombers. Hezbollah is a stronger military force than Hamas. In the 2006 war, the Israeli army was forced to accept a ceasefire without defeating Hezbollah. Now Netanyahu has threatened to totally devastate Lebanon.
So far, Hezbollah has fired rockets at northern Israel, but far from its full capacity. Leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad held a summit in Lebanon last week. The Iranian-backed Huthi militia in Yemen has also fired rockets at Israel.
Major global effects
An expanded war would have major effects throughout the world. The militarisation that exploded with the Ukraine war would be further escalated. The production of arms and ammunition will increase.
At the same time, protests against the war will grow. An anti-war movement similar to that against the US war in Iraq could develop.
The world economy could also be shaken. The World Bank warns that the price of oil could reach $150 per barrel, almost doubling. This would also drastically increase food prices. This too comes on top of the major upheavals of the Ukraine war, the pandemic and the new Cold War.
