The opening session of ISA’s world cadre school in Leuven, Belgium kicked off with an all day session on world perspectives. Over 220 Marxists from every corner of the globe discussed and debated the increasingly complex economic, social and political processes that define the current era of multifaceted capitalist crisis. Introductions were given by Claire Laker Mansfied from Socialist Alternative (England, Wales & Scotland) and Marcus Kollbrunner from Liberdade, Socialisme e Revoluçaõ (Brazil).
Opening up with the onset of the pandemic in 2020, ISA has deemed this period the ‘Age of Disorder’, one of heightened inter-imperialist rivalries, climate catastrophe, economic malaise, increased workers’ militancy and revolution and counter-revolution.
The working out of such perspectives serves as an essential guide for revolutionary action, ensuring we’re prepared for events ahead. That’s no small feat. As Claire observed, “three and a half years on, the pace, drama and extent of the turmoil that has engulfed world capitalism in this short period has significantly exceeded even our expectations.”
The New Period
Claire went on to deal with some of the key economic and geopolitical trends today. She clarified that while we’ve exited the neoliberal era we have not entered a new period of fairer capitalism. In fact on the agenda are more attacks on workers’ conditions, an increasingly repressive state and escalation of the New Cold War between the two failing super powers of US and Chinese imperialism.
The war in Ukraine, now grinding into its 18th month, must be understood in the context of this broader inter-imperialist conflict which in turn has accelerated many of these tendencies, representing a before and after moment in world relations. Jonas from Sweden correctly highlighted the ratcheting up of militarism, a key feature of the new period. 2022 saw a record high of 2.24 trillion dollars in global military spending, a figure which will be dwarfed in coming years as countries race to ramp up spending.
Vincent, of the China/HK/Taiwan section spoke of the decline of Chinese imperialism, the deepening economic crisis — stagnation, low growth and huge debt problems — that many have termed “Japanification” in reference to the sustained crisis of the Japanese economy from the early 1990s. Unlike before, the Chinese dictatorship does not have the resources or room for maneuver to launch ‘bazooka’ stimulus packages as in the past. As Vincent emphasized, this will have an impact on geopolitics and the tempo of the New Cold War.
He also emphasized the process of consolidation of two opposing imperialist blocs, the formation of a “bipolar” rather than a “multipolar” world. On the one hand the US-led western alliance has been strengthened with lesser powers forced to tow the line of American imperialism (often sacrificing their immediate economic interests). Allie, of Socialist Alternative Canada spoke of how the Canadian ruling class has drawn closer to the US, aping Biden’s CHIPS act by pledging 240 million to develop Canada’s domestic semiconductor industry, decreasing reliance on Taiwan.
On the other side, while China has at times sought to appear ‘neutral’ on the war, there is no doubt that its strategic alliance with Russia — economic, political and military — has been consolidated and represents a real bloc. Yet this is not a relationship of equals — Chinese imperialism dominates the partnership with the increasingly volatile Russian capitalism that confronts a number of crises.
Valery spoke of the tightening repressing within Russian society, how one person was charged with dreaming of Zelensky and posting it on social media! Nevertheless, the outbreak of the Prigozhin mutiny showed the underlying instability of the regime. Despite overcoming the immediate crisis, the fact that a relatively small group of mercenaries seized a city and marched on Moscow with no opposition has seriously weakened Putin’s image.
Economic Turmoil
War has its roots in the capitalist system, a product of the constant drive for power, profits and prestige. But, in turn, war further intensifies economic crisis. Claire outlined the perfect storm of inflationary pressures fuelling the cost of living crisis — deglobalization, repeated shocks to global supply chains, extreme weather, and corporate profiteering — heaping misery upon the working class and poor, above all in the neocolonial world.
Yet the very tools that the capitalists use to “solve” these problems only deepens them. As central banks shift from quantitative easing to hiking interest rates, they hope to tame inflation and achieve a ‘soft landing.’ But, the drying up of ‘cheap money’ leaves indebted countries and corporations unable to service their debts and at increased risk of defaults and bankruptcy. There is no easy way out for the strategists of capital.
Alarm bells are continuously sounded. While the bailout following the Silicon Valley Bank crisis achieved a temporary stabilization of the financial system, SVB’s collapse was one of the many indicators that an increasingly vulnerable capitalism is staring down the barrel of another recession.
Again pointing to how multiple crises interact with one another, Claire explained that the fallout of another recession would be multiplied by the lack of a shared economic strategy between rival capitalist classes in a deglobalized world. The Chinese dictatorship, mired in foreign and domestic debt crises, could not replay its role as savior of world capitalism as it did in the wake of the 2007/08 economic crisis.
Climate Crisis Deepens
Adding to the woes of the world economy is the climate crisis. The school took place amidst a devastating heatwave through Europe, North America and China. Robert Bielecki from Sweden explained how June 2023 was the hottest June in recorded history, and 2023 is on track to be the hottest year ever.
Tipping points are already being passed, increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Robert stressed that the climate catastrophe is not something that awaits in the distant future but is already having a devastating impact in the here and now, interacting and intertwining with the economic, social and political crises of capitalism.
This, of course, is a class issue. The poorest and most vulnerable bear the brunt: already 2.7 billion people are affected by water scarcity every year and climate refugees could rise as high as 1.2 billion in 2050. While the global climate movement is at somewhat of an ebb, we should expect it to reemerge on a higher level, more unified, absorbing many experiences of the class struggle.
The Far Right & Reaction
Marcus dealt with the growth of a new extreme right, how in Europe such parties have regularly placed in the top three in recent elections. Yet these nasty figures do not fall from the sky. The likes of Modi, Bolsonaro and Orban are, in Marcus’ words, “the ugly face of the current political crisis of the system.”
In general this has shifted the political center much further to the right with social democratic parties across Europe adapting to the agenda set by the extreme right. As Thies from Germany said ‘even the liberals are abandoning liberalism’ as they move towards an increasingly nationalist rhetoric in the new era of increased inter-imperialist competition.
Tom from the US described how Trump is way ahead in polls for the Republican nominees and concerted efforts to indict him have only boosted his image as a genuine ‘anti-establishment’ candidate. Nevertheless, Tom also pointed to the potential of Cornel West’s independent presidential campaign, which Socialist Alternative will be supporting, as a pole of attraction for workers, young people and the oppressed.
Weakness of the Left
In fact, the absence of genuine left alternatives is a key ingredient for the rise of the far right. John Hird, from Alternativa Socialista in Spanish State, explained the sellout of Podemos and Izquierda Unida. Vox is now targeting the feminist movement as well as the oppressed nationalities in the Basque country and Catalonia. But even if they do come into power with the PP, efforts to impose many aspects of their agenda could be met with a furious response.
These processes have a concentrated expression in Latin America. Mauro, of Alternativa Socialista Mexico, explained how the new progressive governments that came to power on the back of mass revolts from 2019 onwards — Petro in Colombia, Boric in Chile, Castillo in Peru — are rapidly tested and fail to implement key aspects of their programme, instead following a path of class conciliation. They rapidly enter crisis, thus giving the right and far-right space to seize the initiative, as seen in the defeat of the new Chilean constitution in last year’s referendum.
Kevin, of the Socialist Party Ireland likewise described how in many places the far right have consolidated their social base, and indeed the lack of a left challenge could mean reaction gets worse in the next period. Nevertheless, attacks coming from the far-right can provoke social explosions and ‘the whip of counter revolution’ can spur leaps in the consciousness and organization of the working-class and youth, posing the need for the formation of new political instruments.
Working Class is Back
Indeed a recurring theme of the discussion was a review of the revitalization of the workers’ movement seen in many countries across the world, struggles in which ISA have played an active role. Germany, the US, France, Britain, Israel/Palestine, Belgium, and others have had an upsurge in industrial action, up to and including general strikes.
Tom Barker, a shop steward from Socialist Alternative England, Wales & Scotland reviewed the historic strike wave over the last year involving rail workers, teachers, nurses, junior doctors, lecturers (to name a few!) — analyzing both its strengths and weaknesses. While some poor or limited deals had been accepted, this was largely a result of the lack of a strategy of trade union leaderships.
Even as the current phase of struggle comes to an end, the mood has not softened and a new layer of rank and file activists are searching for ideas and methods to rebuild a militant trade union movement. Marxists worker-activists will have a key role to play as a catalyst in this process.
Both Nico and Philipp, active participants in the historic strike movement against Macron’s pension reform, gave a balance sheet of the biggest social struggle in France since May 68. Here, many of the trade unions were dragged into action from mass pressure from below, leading to a historic unity between different union federations organized in the intersyndicale. Though the term itself was not used, the national days of action amounted to general strikes.
ISA proposed the building of rank and file ‘Anti-Macron strike committees’, not structures against the trade unions but tools to assist the struggle in workplaces, neighbourhoods and universities by involving wider layers of the masses, winning over more passive layers, the unorganized and particularly young people.
Ty spoke of the early stages of a potential revitalization of the US Labour movement, largely driven by young workers. During the school, 170,000 writers and actors were on strike. But despite 71% of the population in favour of unions, density has actually shrunk. An essential strategic task for the US labour movement is to therefore organize the unorganized. Socialist Alternative are playing a key role in the unionization drive in Amazon’s KVCG air hub, a campaign that, if successful, could spread like wildfire across other hubs and warehouses and mark a turning point for US labour.
Mass Revolts and Movements Against Oppression
Another key feature of the discussion was the centrality of movements against oppression in the current period. Keely from the US of the ongoing feminist revolt that’s swept the world, from the movements in Latin America to the prominent role of women in broader rebellions. Most striking has been the historic “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising in Iran. Yasmin from the Austrian section spoke of the incredible determination displayed by young women (and ethnic and national minorities) as they revolted against the rotten theocratic regime.
Key sections of workers did enter the struggle but the working class did not play the decisive role it could have. As the movement has receded, the regime goes on the offensive and targeting the most combative layers, the regime will struggle to regain stability. The situation has been qualitatively changed and future movements will be nourished by the lessons learnt by workers and youth today.
Ollie, a founder and organizer of Trans & Intersex Pride Ireland, spoke of the global backlash against trans people and the targeted attacks by the far-right and mainstream media, in many ways reminiscent of the rhetoric whipped up against LGBTQ people during the Aids crisis in the 1980s. In contrast to the approach of NGOs, Ollie explained how ISA speakers at Trans & Intersex Pride, pointed to the need to get organized in a united struggle for socialist change.
Anja remarked how in the coming period of economic turmoil and increased competition between the working class for scarce resources, the ruling class will rely further on divide and rule. In all cases Marxists must explain that as long as there is an oppressed group with worse conditions, that will weigh on the conditions of all, and fight for the workers’ movement to actively take up all struggles against oppression. The socialist feminist work of ISA and ROSA international are absolutely essential in this regard.
Conclusion
In his conclusion Geert, of PSL/LSP (Belgium) re-emphasised the impending social explosions that are to come as capitalism slides deeper into inescapable crises. Marxists must be prepared to seize the opportunities to build our forces and the wider workers’ movement. For that, an all-sided analysis of events is vital and Geert ended with a quote from Rosa Luxemburg emphasizing the same: “The stunning effect of Marx’s intellectual work is due not only to his genial personality, but also to the fact that he always analyses all the issues he deals with in their greatest dialectical coherence, from the broadest historical perspectives.”
