Ukraine’s military counteroffensive against the Russian invasion force has started. On Tuesday 13 June, seven villages or small towns were reported to have been captured. But even the most belligerent supporters of the offensive are still making cautious judgements and predicting a prolonged war.
Preparations on both sides have been going on for more than six months. The Ukrainian military has been practising offensive warfare and supporting a number of drone and other raids inside Russia, while the Russian military has continued its massive brutal artillery, drone and missile attacks on civilians and infrastructure while massively reinforcing its defence lines.
Dam destruction
In the days before the offensive began, the Kakhovka power plant dam blew up, with devastating consequences for the population, wildlife and environment along the Dnieper River. Over 40,000 people have been evacuated. The dam was the source of fresh water to several cities, including Kherson, and to Crimea via a canal, as well as irrigation systems to farmland that is now at risk of becoming desert. One third of Ukraine’s onion and carrot crops are located in the region. The fishing industry and the transport system along the river have been knocked out.
In the short term, Russian forces benefit from the blowing of the dam and are therefore the most likely perpetrators, though no firm conclusions can yet be drawn. Ukraine’s military is finding it more difficult to cross the Dnieper and Russian troops are said to have redeployed from the Kherson region to other fronts. However, it is unclear how long the effects of the blast will last.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had worldwide consequences. In Ukraine, the terror of war and resistance to the occupation is at the centre, while in Russia there is a sub-surface resistance to the war and a growing concern that the war is spreading. But for the rulers of the world’s imperialist powers, in blocs led by the US and China, the war is part of a global power struggle. The conditions of the population are not their priority, any more than in the wars in Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan. Their slogans of ‘war for peace’ and military build-up increase uncertainty and the risk of escalation.
NATO-led Offensive
The Ukrainian offensive has massive support from the country’s population, but is largely controlled by NATO and US imperialism. “When Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive finally begins, the fight will be led by brigades armed not only with Western weapons but also Western know-how, gleaned from months of training aimed at transforming Ukraine’s military into a modern force skilled in NATO’s most advanced warfare tactics,” the Washington Post reports, adding: “The counteroffensive will be the biggest test yet of the U.S.-led strategy of giving the Ukrainians weapons and training to fight like an American army might — but on their own. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov called it the “next level” of security assistance, something he and other officials requested from their Western partners. The United Kingdom has been providing basic training to thousands of Ukrainian recruits since last summer. ”
The first days of the Ukrainian offensive have taken place on four fronts. The most anticipated is the assault in the Zaporizhzhia region from the town of Tokmak to continue south towards Melitopol and the coast to cut the Russian occupation forces in two. This would cause Russia to lose the land route to Crimea. Until Tuesday, Ukraine said it had advanced between 300 and 1,500 metres there.
Other partially opened fronts are in Luhansk and Donetsk in the east, areas partially controlled by Russia since 2014. There is also Bakhmut, the totally destroyed city captured by Russian troops in May after over a half year of bloody battles killing tens of thousands, which the Ukrainian military says it is now in the process of encircling.
Strong Defence?
An offensive war against well-prepared defence forces makes high demands. “Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are continuing to defend against Ukrainian attacks in accord with sound tactical defensive doctrine,” the Institute for the Study of War writes in one of its daily reports. Other reports speak of “significant Ukrainian losses” but emphasise that the majority of the prepared offensive forces have not yet been deployed.
The mixed results and the relatively weak advance so far are not indicative of what will happen in the coming weeks. There is no doubt that Ukrainian troops have higher morale and are more motivated, although they are also constantly affected by the brutality of the war. In terms of equipment, Russia has the upper hand in fighter jets, drones and artillery, while Ukraine, with NATO support, has more precise rocket artillery, new tanks and superior night vision.
Russian Power Struggle
At the same time, a high-level power struggle is taking place in Russia. The Putin regime’s patience with the leader and financier of the private Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, seems to be tested. The military leadership has decided that as of 1 July, the soldiers of the ‘volunteer forces’ will be contracted and incorporated into the regular army. Prigozhin’s forces led the Russian attacks on Bakhmut and he has repeatedly sharply criticised both Defence Minister Shoigu and the military leadership, but has avoided directly criticising Putin. The attempts to stifle Prigozhin are also shown by the fact that Chechnya’s warlord Kadyrov, who has also criticised the conduct of the war, supports the subordination of the Wagner group to the army. Mr Prigozhin has so far resisted, saying his troops will not sign an agreement with Shoigu. The Wagner group is estimated to have 50,000 soldiers in Ukraine, many of them former prisoners. The power struggle, an expression of the crisis of Putin’s war adventure, may create openings for opposition to the war.
Zelensky and the Ukrainian leadership say their goal is to retake 18 per cent of the country, the entire part occupied by Russia. This is a goal shared by 84 per cent of the population (74 per cent in non-occupied eastern Ukraine) in a May poll. The government in Kiev also continues its intense lobbying for more weapons, as well as for membership of NATO and the EU.
US and China
For US imperialism, the war has meant that Washington has regained the leadership of the combined Western powers, including Japan and Australia. This week, Germany is hosting NATO’s largest ever fighter jet exercise, with 250 planes from 23 countries, including Sweden and Japan. New steps have been taken in cooperation between the US, Japan and Taiwan to monitor China’s military. US military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, over $50 billion, is larger than the entire annual military budget of France.
For Chinese imperialism, the Ukraine war is equally important. The war is a serious warning from the US to China. Xi Jinping tries to present himself as a peacemaker, but in reality stands on Russia’s side. The secret Pentagon document revealed that China may be preparing military support for Russia. A number of Chinese vehicles and drones are reportedly already in place. However, no major deliveries have been observed, which would of course represent a very serious escalation.
Socialist Alternative and our International ISA stand for resistance to both the Russian invasion and to NATO. War is a result of the capitalist system, which inevitably creates imperialist power struggles that lead to war. Workers and oppressed people around the world must organise independently of the current rulers. Governments, dictators, generals and capitalists must be challenged by a democratic internationalist socialist workers’ movement.
