Update: 1154 CET 24/06/2023
A new stage in the crisis:
Late last evening news started to break of a serious escalation of the conflict within Russia between Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary forces, and the military leadership of General Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu. Late-evening news on official channels started with a five minute report on Putin presenting awards on ‘youth day’. When it moved on to the conflict it tried to present events as ‘fake news’.
Prigozhin yesterday evening issued another video in which he made serious attacks on the army leadership using language that could only have been interpreted as directed at Putin himself. He said the war was badly planned, that the Kremlin’s claims that Ukraine and NATO were planning to attack Russia were lies, and that the situation on the front from Russian point of view is desperate. He said he has 25000 troops prepared to support him and promised to start a “march for justice” on Moscow.
Despite claiming that the videos Progozhin is distributing are ‘fake news’ — the FSB (security police) announced they had opened a criminal case against him on the charge of calling for an armed uprising.
Prigozhin followed this up with another statement in which he declared:
“The council of commanders of the Wagner PMCs [private military companies] has made a decision. The evil of the country’s military leadership must be stopped. They are neglecting the lives of soldiers, they have forgotten the word “justice”, and we will bring it back. So those who destroyed our lads today, those who destroyed tens, many tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers, will be punished.
I ask you not to put up any resistance to anyone. All those who will try to resist… We will consider it a threat and we will destroy them immediately. Including any roadblocks that get in our way. Any aircraft we see over our heads. I ask everyone to remain calm and resist provocation and stay in their homes. Preferably stay indoors along our route.
After we have finished what we have started, we will go back to the front to defend our homeland. The Presidential authorities, the Government, the Interior Ministry, the Rosgvardia and other structures will continue to work as usual. We will deal with those who are destroying Russian soldiers and we will return to the front. Justice for the troops will be restored, and after that, justice for all of Russia.”
Overnight Wagner troops have taken over the headquarters of Russia’s southern army command in Rostov-on-Don, military objects and the airfield in the region and there are reports that fighting is taking place in the Voronezh region, possibly with Wagner having seized some centres there. There are reports of a military column moving through the Voronezh region, and a video purportedly showing Russian army aircraft attacking the column on the main Moscow-Rostov highway.
{Rostov is a city of a million, a thousand kilometers south of Moscow close to the Southernmost border with the Donetsk region, Voronezh 500 km from Moscow].
This has already been described as the declaration of a coup. Putin in his televised address said that “Russia is fighting the hardest battle for its future, against the neo-nazis and their bosses. Against us we face the whole military, economic and information machine of the west. Those who are trying to split society now are stabbing Russia in the back — he called it “betrayal” and “treason” promising to take all necessary measures to stop Wagner.
Moscow today is under special security measures with control posts checking all vehicles entering the city, armoured personnel carriers in the city centre. The three main highways southwards have been closed. There are rumours that the city will be placed under curfew. And on a day which traditional is when all school leavers celebrate with parties and balls, all public events have been banned and once again the population has been thrown into a state of worry and uncertainty.
Prigozhin has said that the aim of his ‘march for justice’ to the sacking of Gerasimov and Shoigu, which the Kremlin could not accept. It would in effect leave the war hardliners in control of the army [although it is not clear whether the whole army would accept that] and in effect transfer power from the Kremlin to the military.
Whether Prigozhin has the forces to continue his campaign will only be seen as events unfold. The regions close to the Ukraine border are those that have been experiencing most the problems caused by the war with regular drone attacks, and even troop incursions. At the same time there are reports of regular army and national guard troops simply acceding the Wagner’s demands.
The population in those areas feel undefended and are suffering the consequences of the war. Interviews with residents of Rostov whose city was taken over overnight show little sympathy for either side, but also concern that whatever the outcome the situation will worsen. But as one put it: “Sooner or later [Prigozhin’s mutiny] was bound to happen. Except I would have though t it would be done by the regular troops, especially after the mobilisation. Sooner or later ,everyone will see that we have no business being there [in Ukraine]. And anyway: what are we fighting there for? Let’s return, guys!”
At the same time it seems that Prigozhin has isolated himsemf from the other hard line supporters of war. Chechen leader Kadyrov is saying he is mobilizing his troops against Wagner. Girkin — the former KGB, far-right mercenary who masterminded the take over of Crimea and intervention in Donbas in 2014 has attacked Prigozhin too.
It raises the prospect of a break up of Russia again into warring factions and regions, as happened in the early 1990s as capitalism was restored. If Prigozhin succeeds Russia will be in the hands of an open military dictatorship, if not the Kremlin will anyway use the opportunity to step up repressive measures and leave Putin even more reliant on the regular military, national guard and FSB structures to maintain power.
However, whatever the outcome this is not only a major shock to the stability of Russian society, and a real warning of what may happen if the working class in Russia and elsewhere do not take matters into their own hands, by ending the war and kicking the current corrupt regime and its hangers — on out of power.
