Last year’s presidential elections were truly historic. For the first time in a whole generation Colombia would have a left president, bringing an end to the cycle of right-wing neoliberal governments that subjected the Colombian masses to endless poverty, oppression and violence. This was a significant victory for the working class and oppressed in a traditional bastion of US imperialism, an expression of the changed balance of class forces in the wake of the historic social rebellion that shook Colombian capitalism to its foundations in 2021, El Paro Nacional.
Yet the miserable conditions that fueled the revolt had not been resolved. And, despite his enormous unpopularity, Ivan Duque remained in power. In the figure of Gustavo Petro, Francia Marquez and El Pacto Historico, workers and youth saw the best means to finally kick out the rotten Duque regime and chart a way out of the rotten Uribista hellscape.
While we recognized the importance of landing a blow against the Colombian oligarchy; while we shared the enthusiasm of the working masses; we also warned of the grave dangers that were inherent in Petro’s policy of class conciliation. Forming a popular front-style coalition with traditional parties — Partido Liberal, Partido de la U, Partido Conservador — Petro rewarded their support with important cabinet positions and significant programmatic concessions.
But, as expected, these alliances with pro-capitalist parties have disoriented the masses that brought Petro to power. By taking the movement off the streets and into institutional channels he has given the right space to breathe and regroup. And now, on the one year anniversary of Petro’s electoral victory, we see the contradictions at the heart of El Pacto Historico begin to unravel.
Economic and Social Crisis
Colombia’s economy had an impressive growth of 8% last year, its oil and coal industry (which make up 55% of its exports) benefiting from the global surge in prices following supply chain disruptions in the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The main beneficiaries, however, were the major energy companies: El Grupo Energía Bogotá, for example, had record earnings of 6.8 billion US dollars, up 23.7% from the previous year. Yet these fortunes have not trickled down to the workers and poor; quite the contrary. In December of last year, inflation rocketed to 13.1% and when it comes to basic food products it’s even higher: rice, a staple of the Colombian diet, surged to a 54% increase on the year before.
All of this comes on top of the catastrophic impact of the pandemic which drove millions into poverty and has left 15.5 million people facing food insecurity. Economic measures to deal with the worst impacts of the crisis have only added to Colombia’s debt problem which, against the backdrop of global capitalist crisis, becomes increasingly difficult to manage. As the economist Eduardo Sarmiento explained: “It will be increasingly difficult for Colombia to seek resources in international markets to cover our debts. Moreover, because industrialized countries also have their own problems, such as the bankruptcy of financial entities, and face a period of low growth”. This demonstrates the impossibility of an alternative within capitalism: it would even seem that any attempt to ‘correct’ or ’remedy’ the problems of the market ends up worsening the situation in another way, in the short or long term, on a national or international scale. The outlook is not favorable to Petro, and his scope of action is diminishing more and more as the crisis deepens.
Total Peace
This is the deeply unstable economic and social terrain in which Petro is attempting to implement his limited reformist programme. A key plank of his project, and the first he signed into law, was ‘La Paz Total’ — the effort to end conflict in a country wracked by a decades long civil war that’s killed over 460,000 people, one aided and abetted by US imperialism. While announcements of ceasefires with a number of armed groups initially inspired hope, truces with ELN, EMC and El Clan del Golfo cartel have all since broken down amidst a resurgence of violence, leading to an uptick in displacements in certain regions. Yet without challenging the roots of the conflict — the inextricable ties between big business, mega-landowners and the paramilitaries — any solution can only be temporary and the situation risks sliding into chaos.
Reforms meet with resistance from traditional parties
Likewise the endemic poverty that drives people into gangs or other illegal activity must be tackled. Yet, Petro has faced significant obstacles passing his health, pension and labor reforms that, although limited, contain elements that would improve the conditions of working people in Colombia at the expense of the bosses. Unsurprisingly, the right-wing opposition have resisted. But so too did members of Petro’s own cabinet, stalling the reforms in congress. Reflecting on the challenges his government faced, Petro admitted that: “Change is more difficult than we thought.” Should we really be surprised? ISA previously warned that even the most basic reforms would be watered down or outrightly resisted by those traditional parties of Colombian capitalism within Petro’s government who represent interests diametrically opposed to those of the oppressed masses that sought real change in El Pacto Historico.
In response to internal opposition Petro has carried out two cabinet reshuffles; in February he sacked three of the more centrist ministers and in April he kicked out another seven, including the more ‘fiscally responsible’ Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo of the Liberal Party, initially appointed as a safe pair of hands for Colombian capitalism to calm the fears of big business. At a Mayday demonstration in support of the reforms Petro remarked that “Change is not possible without the people.” We agree. But Petro is a long way from putting words into action, as he maintains alliances with capitalist politicians, and places parliamentary negotiations over organizing the type of mass struggle necessary to win key reforms. While we welcome that Petro has called mobilizations, they have thus far been limited, hamstrung by the trade union bureaucracy’s desire to tame the process in the hope it does not grow out of their control.
Fiction of ‘Democratic Capitalism’
Petro’s doomed strategy of class collaboration was often justified with the false idea that a section of the Colombian bourgeoisie could play a progressive role in throwing off the country’s feudal vestiges and develop a fairer ‘Democratic Capitalism’ a fiction that by now should be completely shattered. It is not possible to include the masses’ oppressors in the process that aims to tackle the economic model that allowed them to exploit and murder with impunity.
As the traditional right endured an existential crisis and Petro’s campaign gathered momentum, sections of the ruling class did indeed reluctantly accommodate themselves with Pacto Historico. They correctly calculated that direct opposition to Petro would be politically disastrous, instead opting to negotiate with him in return for watering down more radical proposals. But the possibilities of carrying out a class programme are determined by mass movements from below, not by assurances to preserve the very “stability” that has subjugated the working class.
While even the more truculent wings of the Colombian establishment were temporarily knocked back after being dealt a significant blow in the elections, this victory for the left was not consolidated. On top of the open divisions in El Pacto Historico, a flurry of political scandals and intrigue involving Petro’s inner circle has put him in the crosshairs of the ruling class and their media mouthpieces who see a more opportune moment to go on the offensive.
Scandal and Crisis in El Pacto Historico
While many of the bizarre details remain unclear, the political feud between Armando Beneddetti and Laura Sarbia reflects the class contradictions embodied in el Pacto Historico. Benedetti, a former member of el Partido Liberal and Partido de la U, was one of many opportunists that, like rats jumping from a sinking ship, entered el Pacto. Rather than principally opposing his involvement (as much of the rank and file did) Petro leaned on Benedetti and his political connections to forge alliances with the traditional parties.
Petro has referred to these and other maneuvers as a soft coup, accusing his enemies of turning the country into a dictatorship. Predictably the president has responded with appeals to international courts, maintaining the illusion that state institutions can be reformed. But these are not adequate weapons to confront the ruling class and their state machine. Marxists understand that the state is not a neutral arbiter of class conflict but an instrument to uphold the rule of capital. Backed by US imperialism, the weak Colombian state has historically colluded with homicidal paramilitaries as an auxiliary to defend the interests of landlords and multinationals, something which the testimonies of former AUC second-in-command Salvatore Mancuso make shockingly clear.
While some sectors of the right like the Uribista Centro Democratico would back a coup, a threat we should not take lightly, the majority of the bourgeoisie at this point prefer to undermine Petro through other means. As Colombia’s economic crisis deepens and social misery accumulates, discontent with Petro’s government is set to grow. Already his approval rating has dropped to 36%. Recalling the meteoric rise of the far-right ‘anti-establishment’ candidate Rodolfo Hernandez in last year’s election, we should not underestimate the potential for an even nastier far-right to regroup and benefit from disillusionment with the current government.
For a Socialist Alternative
For that reason, while orienting to the rank and file of El Pacto Historico, a left force must be built, one that is rooted in the struggles of the working class and oppressed, in the streets, in the communities and in the workplaces, that fights for every reform but does so independently of the current government, through mass mobilization and an anti-capitalist and socialist programme.
Hoping to calm the fears of the Colombian ruling class, Petro promised to not carry out any expropriations. However, taking the country’s rich resources and key sectors of the economy out of the hands of the capitalists, and bringing them into democratic public ownership under the control of the working masses, is the only means to confront the overlapping economic, social and political crises engulfing Colombia in the Age of Disorder. Such a project is not only necessary but, as the inspiring uprising in 2021 showed, is indeed possible. Nevertheless, as El Paro Nacional also revealed, the Colombian masses’ heroic determination was not matched with the revolutionary programme, strategy and organization required to overthrow capitalism and imperialism. It’s this task that ISA Colombia has set itself.
