Rampant inflation, high energy prices, power cuts, a huge influx of refugees, street protests in the autumn, and growing national tensions have all proved too much for Moldova’s pro-EU government.
Before 1940, most of Moldova (the part to the west of the Dniester) was part of Romania, while today’s breakaway republic of Transnistria was an autonomous soviet republic in Soviet Ukraine. After the Second World War, they were joined together and the Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic was created. The national and ethnic differences between Moldova and Romania were emphasised, Moldovan was shown to be a separate language from Romanian, and a Cyrillic alphabet was re-introduced for the Moldovan/Romanian language. Meanwhile, as in other soviet republics, a policy of Russification was implemented with Russian becoming the de facto official language.
Gorbachev’s reforms in the late 1980s, aimed at rescuing stalinism, opened up a certain space for discussion and democratic debate in soviet society, allowing various national movements to flourish throughout the Soviet Union. In the multi-ethnic Moldavian SSR national movements became the dominant political feature. With the development of Moldovan nationalism, support for Moldova to leave the Soviet Union and unite with Romania also grew. At the same time, the national and ethnic minorities feared becoming a disadvantaged, excluded, and discriminated minority in a greater Romania.
In August 1989, two laws enacted in the Moldovan SSR further inflamed national tensions. The first made Moldovan the official language, and the second enacted the return of the Latin Romanian alphabet. Since a large proportion of Moldovan citizens did not speak Moldovan (Romanian), the language question became an explosive issue.
In Transnistria, where Ukrainian and Russian-speakers outnumbered Romanian-speakers roughly two to one, and in Gagauzia, the poorest region of Moldova, where the Gagauz people live, there was strong opposition to the government’s language reforms, ethnic policies and plans for unification with Romania.
With the collapse of stalinism and the Ceaușescu regime in Romania, it seemed that unification with Romania could be inevitable. This further strengthened the separatist tendencies among the national and ethnic minorities. Protests broke out in Transnistria and Gagauzia demanding autonomy and recognition of Russian and Gagauz as official languages.
In Transnistria, war broke out, resulting in the creation of the breakaway republic of Transnistria. Meanwhile, Gagauzia initially declared independence. However, a majority of Moldovans continued to be opposed to unification with Romania, and with almost 98% voting to remain an independent nation in 1994, the idea of unification with Romania was abandoned. This allowed a compromise with Gagauzia to be reached in 1994, with the result it remained in Moldova, but with a degree of autonomy from Chisinau.
Faced with these multiple crises, and amid allegations of Russian plans to stage a coup with the use of foreign saboteurs, supposedly confirmed by Moldova’s intelligence service, Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita and her government resigned on 10 February to make way for a more authoritarian, but also pro-West government.
At the same time, recent days have also seen two Russian cruise missiles fly over Moldova and Romania — a NATO country — on their way to hit targets in Ukraine, and rumours of Russian drones flying overhead, prompting Moldova to temporarily close the country’s airspace on 14 February. Meanwhile, citizens from Serbia and Montenegro have been refused entry into Moldova on the pretext that they could be Russian sponsored saboteurs.
Street protests against the Pro-EU government
Gavrilita came to power in August 2021 following the landslide victory of President Sandu’s pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). Both Sandu and Gavrilita were elected on a pro-European, anti-corruption platform. Last year, in response to the war in Ukraine, the EU accepted Moldova as a membership candidate. However, the war has severely destabilised the country and exacerbated the social, economic and political problems of the country.
Currently Moldova has one of the highest inflation rates in Europe, running at 29% for 2022, while its economy contracted by 10% in the third quarter of 2022. Before the war in Ukraine, the former Soviet country was highly dependent on Russian gas, and with deliveries slashed due to the war, prices have increased by 400%. Electricity blackouts due to supply problems caused by the war have also made life difficult for citizens. As a result, in a recent poll, only one in five Moldovans were happy with the government.
With many unable to pay their bills due to the escalating cost of living, last autumn mass street protests broke out in the capital Chisinau. In September 20,000 demanded the resignation of President Sandu and the government on a protest led by the right-wing populist Șor Party. The government responded by introducing laws limiting the right to protest. At the same time, the party’s leader, the oligarch Ilan Șor, who favours closer ties with the Kremlin, was sanctioned by the US.
Despite the government’s hard-line approach, in October the protests were even larger. Over 50,000 protested on a demonstration led by the Șor Party. This time the government responded by initiating proceedings to outlaw the Șor Party and in December six TV stations linked to Ilan Șor were temporarily suspended.
Rising national tensions
Moldova’s national question is also flaring up again against the background of the Ukrainian war and the political and economic crisis.
Today, Transnistria represents a military threat to both Moldova and Ukraine. Around 1,600 Russian troops are stationed within the borders of the pro-Russia breakaway republic. On the other hand, about one-third of Transnistrian citizens are ethnic Ukrainians, which explains why the authorities of Transnistria have been playing a balancing act. They are trying not to become embroiled in the war and are cautious not to openly support Russian military aggression against Ukraine. Nevertheless, the situation is unstable and Moldova fears that Russia could use Transnistria as a staging post for an attack on Moldova.
Tensions in Gagauzia
In Moldova’s poorest region, Gagauzia, national tensions are also rising. Despite gaining a degree of autonomy in 1994, economic, educational and language inequalities have left the national question simmering for many years. Russian is most widely spoken, while proficiency in Moldovan is low (only 18% of Gagauzians declare they can both speak and write Moldovan fluently).
Along with the economic hardship caused by the war, Moldova’s moves towards the EU are also opening up the rift. In 2014, a referendum was held in Gagauzia which showed an overwhelming majority preferred closer ties with Russia instead of the EU and that they preferred independence, should Moldova join the EU.
Largely dependent on Russian television for their news, a majority of Gagauzians support Russia’s “military operation” in Ukraine. But this is not only explained by the influence of Russian propaganda. Many Gagauzians see Russia as a force that could guarantee their national rights, unlike NATO and the EU. They remember the US support for unification with Romania in the early 1990s, which threatened the rights of the Gagauzians. In contrast, the Soviet Union is remembered in a positive light, as is the role of the Red Army in liberating Gagauzia from oppressive Romanian rule.
During President Sandu’s visit to Gagauzia in September 2022, local politicians accused her of being a puppet of the West and damaging relations with Russia. Meanwhile, amendments to Moldova’s Criminal Code, tightening Moldova’s anti-separatist law, have also worsened relations with Gagauzia and Transnistria.
Collapse of the government
In February this year the crisis in Moldova reached breaking point. Responding to Moldova’s declarations of interest in joining NATO, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the West has its sights on Moldova and warned that it will be the next Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine warned Moldova of Russian plans to send foreign saboteurs from Russia, Belarus, Montenegro and Serbia into Moldova to destabilise the country, carry out terrorist attacks and overthrow the government.
Such rumours have been doing the rounds for several months, but this time the Moldovan intelligence service confirmed the plans. It is not clear how much truth is in these claims or whether this is a conspiracy theory used by the Moldovan state as a pretext to introduce a more authoritarian pro-West regime in order to crush the opposition and working-class protests as well as try to protect itself from the threat posed by Russia.
Whatever the truth behind the rumours, following the resignation of the government, the former national security advisor, Dorin Recean, was nominated as the new prime minister. With no programme to tackle the economic problems facing Moldova’s citizens, the new government only has discipline and law and order on offer — in other words authoritarianism and repression.
Neither the West nor Russia
Neither the pro-Western wing of the Moldovan ruling class nor the pro-Russian wing can solve the problems of the Moldovan working masses. The pro-Western wing around Sandu and Recean can only offer authoritarianism, national oppression and attacks on workers’ living standards. Recean and Pas talk about “pro-development” policies and the need to fight corruption. However, in reality, this will be used as an argument to attack the state sector and push privatisation of the state industries and health service.
The so-called pro-EU policies of PAS will — in the unlikely best-case scenario of peace in the region — simply allow Western capital to exploit Moldova’s low paid workers, at the same time enriching a small group of Moldovan capitalists, and at best give a few crumbs on the table for a small middle class.
On the other hand, while demagogically exploiting the genuine anger and frustration with the economic hardships, the pro-Russian wing also has no solutions other than to tie the Moldovan economy to the imperialist ambitions of Russia’s oligarchs, perpetuating corruption, authoritarianism, and economic stagnation. Neither option can offer a way out of the economic nightmare nor defend the Moldovan working class from the horror of war or violent coup.
The only way out is to build a mass movement of the working class and other working masses completely independently of the pro-Russia opposition. To win the support of all working people, a socialist programme is needed that will also offer full language, cultural, and political rights to the ethnic and national minorities of Moldova and the wider region, up to and including the right to break away and establish full independence from the Moldovan state if a majority wishes to do so. This is the only way to achieve the maximum working-class unity in action and the trust of all minorities.
-
We Say
No to Sandu and the new authoritarian government! No to Ilan Șor and the Șor Party!
No to the repressive anti-separatism law and new repressive measures of the Recean government!
For full language, cultural and political rights of all ethnic and national minorities, including the right of self-determination!
For the establishment of independent, democratic protest committees in all workplaces and communities!
For a determined struggle against inflation and energy price rises! For the trade unions to fight for wage rises at a level that will compensate for the true increase in the cost of living!
For social ownership and democratic workers’ control and management of all the oil, gas, energy and heating companies as well as all other large companies and banks!
For a democratic plan of production involving all working people, drawn up in the interests of society and not the few!
For international solidarity between the working peoples of the region!
