Main Takeaways:
A major defeat for ruling Peronist coalition: The defeat of the candidates of the Peronist coalition “Frente de Todos” in practically the whole country is the expression of an enormous popular disappointment with President Alberto Fernández. If these results are repeated in the general elections on 14 November, the government will lose control of both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
The right wing won but is not really advancing. The right-wing coalition “Juntos por el Cambio” (JxC) of ex-president Macri emerged from these elections victorious but has failed to win over new voters who were disappointed with Peronism. They obtained the same number of votes as in the 2019 elections when they lost the presidency of the country. This is because the memory of the Macri government’s austerity measures is still fresh in people’s minds, which is why we consider that although this sector did manage to consolidate their electorate, there is no generalised shift to the right among the population.
Polarisation to the left and right. On the one hand, the anti-capitalist left organised in the “Frente de Izquierda y los Trabajadores Unidad” (FIT-U — the Workers’ Left Front — Unity) had a strong election, obtaining more than 1 million votes, consolidating itself as the third-largest national force and potentially gaining seats in the National Congress, in the provinces and in the municipalities. But on the other hand, for the first time, an extreme right-wing party led by the ultra-liberal economist Javier Milei came in fourth place, only 40,000 votes behind the left.
“A festival of democracy” with few attendees
Disappointed with the government and unable to see a credible political alternative, more than 4 million people did not go to vote. Despite the fact that voting is compulsory, they opted to stay at home rather than participate in a “festival of democracy” in the midst of a dire social backdrop. One where more than 18 million people live in poverty; that is, more than 40% of the country, a figure that rises to 70% among young people and children. The tragedy is even more acute with 10.7% of the population in extreme poverty. This is despite the fact that economic activity rebounded by 10.5% in 2021.
Peronism returned to power in 2019 promising to put money in people’s pockets, fill the fridges with food, revive factories, increase pensions and social assistance. Two years have passed and none of these promises have been fulfilled. On the contrary, 50% inflation is eating away at salaries, pensions and social plans. More than 7.5 billion dollars were paid to the IMF and the country’s rich got richer during the pandemic while hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost.
From electoral defeat to turmoil at the top.
This social situation is what explains the electoral defeat of the “Frente de Todos”. The day after the elections the various sectors that comprise it quickly entered into a power struggle. The ministers who answer to Vice-President Cristina Fernández Kirchner (a former President) unexpectedly resigned as a way of pressuring the president to give more seats in the government to the Kirchnerist wing.
With mutual accusations of responsibility for defeat, audios of Peronist deputies openly insulting the president and a harsh open letter from the vice-president seeking to distance herself from the defeat and trying to shake off responsibility for the fiscal adjustment, the struggle escalated, arousing fear among the entire bourgeois political elite, who quickly sought to pour cold water on the crisis to stop the government’s explosion. Eventually, after tense negotiations and with a cabinet reshuffle, they managed to close the most serious chapter of this internal crisis. However, the fault lines are still there, as was seen in the division of Peronism into three different rallies for October 17, Peronist Loyalty Day.
To the disappointment of the Kirchnerist base, however, the new ministers are more right-wing than the previous ones. Juan Manzur, a man of the Catholic Church and Opus Dei, who in addition to expressing the worst of conservatism, has strong links with the big foreign businessmen, has taken over as Head of the Cabinet. In the Ministry of Security is Aníbal Fernandez, one of those responsible for the massacre on the Pueyrredón Bridge when the police assassinated two workers’ leaders in 2002. In the Ministry of Agriculture — fundamental in a country that is mainly an agro-exporter — Julián Domínguez has taken over. As soon as he took office he liberalised the restrictions on meat exports, among other benefits for the rural bosses. And as the icing on the cake, the dubious finance minister Martín Guzmán (an IMF agent in Cristina’s own words) was ratified in his post. In short, after the defeat, the government is turning further to the right.
FIT-U. A great election that implies a great responsibility.
With a correct anti-capitalist program, a constant presence in the daily struggles of the workers, as well as the coherence in the actions of its MPs who do not live on privileges and, in the face of the electoral collapse of Peronism, the left managed to awaken electoral enthusiasm in an important sector of the most politically conscious workers disillusioned with the government.
In the general elections of November 14, the FIT-U faces a challenge to getting more votes, reelecting and even expanding their seats in Congress so that the left continues to strengthen itself in preparation for the struggles to come. ISA calls for a vote for the FIT-U candidates. But the biggest challenge comes after the elections when Peronism will have to apply more austerity measures to comply with the IMF and the bosses to whom Alberto Fernandez has already promised a new labor reform, the elimination of “double severance” pay for workers and of the law prohibiting layoffs in some sectors.
Faced with this panorama, the FIT-U deputies should present bills to defend the working class. Proposals for a minimum wage equal to the real cost of living, for the construction of public housing and the prohibition on mega-mining, etc. Together with this they should call for mass mobilization so that the Congress actually approves these laws. They should also use their seats to call for national gathering of all the sectors of workers and the oppressed in struggle, to promote workers’ and popular coordination, for example, to create united action committees in the factories, unions, universities and neighborhoods.
For the first time, the coming economic crisis will find Peronism in power administering misery and, unlike the crisis of 2001, there is now a Left with a great recognition among the mass movement, opening up the possibility of fighting for political power. It is a great opportunity that should not be missed. Therefore however, the FIT-U must go beyond being a mere electoral front and on the basis of its program, become a real mass left party, bringing together the enormous militant vanguard of the left, labour movement, social, cultural, human rights, feminist, LGBT+, ecologist, territorial movements etc. most of whom are currently organized outside the parties that make up the FIT-U and who are increasingly distanced from Peronism.
Unfortunately the self-proclaimed statements of FIT-U leaders of the type “we unite 85% of the left” that seek to minimize the rest of the expressions of the left, encourage division and do not help to strengthen a political alternative for the working class. It would have been different if in these elections they had taken advantage of the opportunity to add other parties such as the Nuevo Mas or the Partido Obrero (Tendency) of Jorge Altamira which, since they had to stand alone in elections, did not manage to surpass the 1.5% quota to enter the institutions.
Sectarianism and self-proclamation do not help to strengthen the left and if the space left by Peronism is not occupied by the left, others will appear to occupy it.
A far right threat emerges
Like the old ghosts of a past of terror that return to the present in these elections, an ultra-liberal extreme right threat appeared for the first time since the military dictatorship. Its exponent is the buffoon economist Javier Milei who, with a “rebellious” discourse against the corrupt “political caste”, displaying an open McCarthyism, names “Marxism” (in which he includes not only the left but also Peronism and even sectors of right wing Juntos por el Cambio) and Keynesianism as the culprits of the national catastrophe facing Argentina.
In the name of a supposed “freedom”, he poses as an anarcho-capitalist, positioning himself against the “State that oppresses private initiative”. In addition to being misogynist and anti-choice in relation to abortion rights, he positions himself against so-called ”gender ideology“. With a lot of space in the mass media, he openly speaks of crushing the ”lefties “, says that there is no need to get vaccinated or wear masks, that everything must be privatized — health, education, even the streets — and that climate change is an invention of communism.
This new extreme right arises as a consequence of the decadence of neoliberalism that plunges into poverty not only the working class but also the middle classes who are terrified of losing what little they have left, be it a job or a small business. But it is among the middle class youth who see no future in the country and fall prey to a mood of “every man for himself” amidst great crisis, where this individualistic discourse is booming. This sector feels constantly disappointed with both Peronism and Macrism.
The extreme right wing ha a very strong election, coming in fourth place at a national level, only 50 thousand votes behind the FIT-U. Moreover, they only ran in two districts, Buenos Aires (Federal Capital) where they obtained 13%, doubling the votes of the left and in the province of Buenos Aires where they obtained 5%, very few votes behind the FIT-U. Undoubtedly, their political reach is greater and extends to the rest of the country. That is why we should not underestimate them but fight them openly, stripping their discourse of false rebelliousness which in reality is that of servants of big business.
The challenge ahead of all of us who are of the left and support the democratic freedoms of the people is to confront them publicly, destroying their arguments. If we put into practice the privatization of education, health or lower the “labor costs” this will not imply more freedom but more chains for the workers and will deepen poverty and inequality. We must also show what is happening in Brazil with Bolsonaro responsible for the death of thousands of Brazilians for denying the pandemic of COVID-19.
In addition to unveiling his false discourse that speaks of defending freedom Milei stands as his second candidate a defender of the military dictatorship. Milei himself worked as an advisor to the genocidal military man Domingo Bussi, responsible for torture centers run by the military dictatorship in the north of the country.
In tune with Latin America
While the peoples of Latin America were mobilizing recently, in Argentina, it seemed that calm reigned. In reality it was the hope that with a Peronist government there would be a better life again that prevailed, but this hope has quickly dissipated. The government’s policy of making the workers and poor pay for the crisis is leading to great disappointment and although there were important mobilizations and struggles, especially in the front line of health care, these were not generalized throughout the country. Even so, some important victories were obtained. The unemployed organized in “piqueteros” groups are also permanently mobilizing for real jobs and against the government’s attempt to convert social welfare programmes into “work” to benefit private businesses.
If the workers’ struggles do not go further, it is fundamentally because of the union bureaucracy that is more concerned with supporting the government and its privileges than fighting for the workers.
Desperate to reverse their defeat in the elections, they continue with the discourse that we must vote for them so that Macri’s right wing does not win, but this discourse gets less and less of an echo among their voters.
Since they will not be able to give economic answers favorable to the people and facing electoral defeat, the government will be forced to try to carry out attacks on the working class in a very weakened state. Surely, Juntos por el Cambio (Macri’s Together for Change) will dutifully step in to help, in the name of “governability”.
Politically, the working class is becoming more and more an orphan, opening the possibility not only of social convulsions leading to a generalized popular rebellion and putting Argentina in tune with our Latin American siblings in struggle but also the possibility of building a political alternative of the working class if the FIT-U rises to the occasion by promoting the construction of a united mass party of the left to fight for a pro working class government. And if the left is not up to the task there is the danger that the extreme right will occupy that space.
That is why ISA in Argentina invites workers, young and oppressed people to build with us a revolutionary party that grows together with the struggles of the working class, of the feminist green tide, of the youth fighting for their future and against climate change. A party that moves away from sterile sectarianism but also from opportunism that leads to a dead end as demonstrated by the progressive and left sectors that unfortunately joined the Frente de Todos. Times of great changes are coming. Those at the top will be more and more in crisis and those at the bottom no longer want to continue to endure the hardships of this capitalist system.
