1 August Mexico held a referendum on whether former presidents could be investigated and prosecuted for their role in corruption and violence. While the Yes vote won with 98%, the turnout was a mere 7%, meaning it failed to pass the 40% threshold needed to make the result binding.
The referendum mobilised hundreds of activists, and millions of young people and workers, aware of the importance of showing their repudiation of previous Mexican governments. But at the same time, the low turnout showed that a campaign is not enough. It is necessary to build a permanent organisation, with daily work in the neighbourhoods, schools and workplaces to fight for justice linking it with the most pressing demands of the working class.
The campaign “Si al Juicio a los ex-Presidentes” [Yes to the Trial of the Former Presidents] has undoubtedly been a new opportunity for hundreds or even thousands of left-wing activists to mobilise and build participation in the referendum. This has been absolutely positive. The resounding victory of the Yes in the referendum is a clear sign of rejection of the previous governments all of which dedicated themselves to attacking the workers and the oppressed and plundering the country.
A fair and necessary balance
However, we must recognise that this has not been enough to attract the attention of the broad layers of workers, youth and women in the country. The key drivers of the struggles of the last decade, who paved the way for Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO’s) triumph in 2018, did not show up. The turnout of only 7 to 8 % of the electorate, some 7 million voters, is a striking illustration of this — not even half of the 30 million votes that Obrador won in 2018.
Of course, the blame does not lie with the campaign group who promoted the referendum, a group independent of AMLO’s party “Morena” but with some relations to the left of Morena. These were the people who organised the collection of signatures throughout the country and pushed for the referendum initiative. But to be clear, it was not only the result of the very real and conscious sabotage by the National Electoral Institute (INE) and the media, who did everything possible to undermine participation in the referendum. It must be said that these results are a partial defeat, a product of Morena’s right-wing leadership, who have waged a campaign to sideline and demobilise the party’s rank and file, and a consequence of the politics of Obrador himself, who clearly stated that he would vote against the trial of the former presidents.
The results of the referendum are largely in line with the “bitter victory” of the past elections (see A Bitter Victory for Morena). Parallel to the electoral victory of Morena which increased its vote (albeit with a larger presence of right-wing candidates) the Yes vote won with a percentage of 98%. But the low participation shows a clear demoralisation and disinterest in the referendum, and in general the situation of the so-called “Fourth Transformation”, Obrador’s political project.
Of course, there is no doubt that participation in the referendum would have been higher if it had been held on election day. However, the context in which it took place reflects the real withdrawal of thousands of young people, workers, women and peasants who are increasingly suspicious of Obrador’s government. It is precisely the campaign group’s lack of criticism, not just of the old regime (the PRI and PAN) but also of the Fourth Transformation and Obrador himself, that, in our view, explains the low turnout in the referendum.
Let’s rebuild the movement in the streets! Let’s reorganise the left!
The outcome of the referendum is therefore contradictory. On the one hand, it is clear that there is an important layer of activists, up to thousands of them,who are ready to fight and have the capacity to mobilise several million people. However, as is clear from the results, this is not enough to confront the right wing and the mainstream media, which still have a significant presence in Mexican society with a not inconsiderable capacity to influence “public opinion”.
Although in no way definitive or final, we need to be clear that this result is a setback compared to 2018. Only by acknowledging this can we correct the course and reverse the situation in the future. To do this, we must rebuild the movement in the streets, neighbourhoods, schools and workplaces, starting with the elaboration of a programme of demands and linking them to the struggle for justice and a real transformation of society that the working class and oppressed need and desire.
Promises of change and propaganda about social programmes are not enough, when we see how impunity is maintained. Figures such as Salvador Cienfuegos, the Secretary of Defence in Peña Nieto’s government and therefore responsible for the army’s role in the Tlatlaya and Ayotzinapa massacres, continue to be protected. Or Emilio Lozoya, director of PEMEX during Peña Nieto’s six-year term and who already has seven charges before the attorney general of Mexico, the last one for diverting 1.4 billion pesos to the major conglomerate Odebrecht.
To make progress in these cases, and in general to deepen the transformation of the country, it is necessary to build a movement that is not subordinated to the electoral manoeuvres of Morena, nor to the opportunist political calculations of López Obrador.
In other words, it is essential to build an independent force that organises on the basis of its own needs and demands. A force that recognises the partial advances that exist since 2018 (however minimal they may be) but that does not simply defend them: a force that consciously fights to expand and develop these advances as well as winning new demands for the working class and oppressed.
In other words, it is necessary to reorganise the left through a programme of struggle to rebuild the movement and to be able to face the new battles against the right, the media and the old regime, which has not yet been defeated.
To achieve this it is indispensable to revindicate the demands of the movement, and to link these demands and slogans with the struggle for the radical transformation of society. That is to say, the only way to meet these demands is through the struggle for a different society, for a socialist society.
In this respect, the limitations of Obrador’s government and program are clear and make it evident that it is not possible to transform the country without openly and clearly fighting against the capitalist class and its regime.
It shows that it is not enough to fight against corruption and to expand social programs, that if we really want to transform the country and bring justice it is necessary not only to prosecute the former presidents but also take on those who have benefited from corruption and the looting of the country: that is, the capitalist class.
Alternativa Socialista participated in different initiatives that drove the campaign for the Trial of Former Presidents, knowing the enormous challenge that this meant and how difficult it would be to achieve the required 40% threshold.
We consider that although there has not been a successful outcome, the initiative and the campaign have allowed us to strengthen the links between different organizations. And in this sense, the campaign has allowed us to strengthen the organization of sections of the working class. We believe that this is the way forward to advance the struggle for justice and a genuine radical transformation of society.
