Introducing the first session of this July’s Virtual Marxist University, Kelly welcomed all participants, particularly those attending for the first time including those from new countries such as Chile, New Zealand and others. She pointed out that, over the previous two days, hundreds had attended separate day long meetings in discuss and coordinate youth and trade union work.
Introducing the first speaker, Keely Mullen from Socialist Alternative in the United States, Kelly explained how the scale of the crisis and pace of political events since the last VMU make it very necessary to discuss the period. Extreme weather events in early July, food riots in South Africa, protests in Cuba, and, as the VMU was itself being launched, Jeff Bezos flying into (near) space all show the deep contradictions in society and the potential for mass struggles to break out.
Keely’s introduction was recorded and broadcast with subtitles in 12 languages. The English version can be viewed here.
Keely began by explaining that Marxists pay extraordinary attention to examine perspectives to determine what we believe are the most likely direction of events to clearly understand why we are making tactical turns. She gave examples from the 1929 Comintern which abandoned the united front to struggle against Hitler in the belief that the world was ready for communist parties to come to power and the post-WW2 Trotskyist movement that failed to check their perspectives against reality to demonstrate what can happen when revolutionary parties fail to understand the processes currently taking place.
Today, she said, the present conjuncture will be seen as a titanic turning point in world history. Inequality has reached such a scale that the world’s billionaires control more wealth than 4,6 billion people — 60% of the entire population of the globe. The Covid pandemic is forging ahead in Africa, where just 2% of the population have been vaccinated. At the same time, Musk, Branson and Bezos are competing in their own space race. Capitalism as a system is no longer viable, so the ruling elite are searching for any solution, particularly so they can avoid class struggle.
Such turning points always provoke discussion within the revolutionary movement about what changes are needed, and they were reflected in the recent splits in our international, firstly with former CWI minority, and more recently with the minority within ISA.
Nevertheless ISA has developed a clear perspective. The Covid pandemic has further exposed the rottenness of the economy, has driven class struggle, and when the climate emergency is added in, has created a perfect storm. Fuelling the storm, are three main sources of instability — the climate crisis, inter-imperialist rivalries and economic crisis.
Several tipping points have now been passed in the climate crisis. We now experience black outs, widespread flooding, extreme storms, the loss of land and water shortages. Sections of ruling class have now seen the dangers and are trying to regain control through private sector green investment. But all their measures, even if implemented, are dramatically short of what is needed. The Amazon is already being turned from a carbon sink into a carbon source. Dire warnings were issued at the recent G7 summit, but no serious steps were taken. Ruling elites are more concerned about their own national interests, but without genuine international collaboration, we face disaster.
Climate change has become one of the most physical aspects of the capitalist crisis. No continent is spared. Heat waves in US and Canada, droughts in Africa, floods in Western Europe are taking place and now there is even a world-wide pandemic. This is broadening radicalisation with the social consequences being an additional spark for social upheaval.
9.4% of global debt is linked to extreme heat or cold exposure. There is a widespread shortage of decent insulated housing. Crop failures are linked to climate change mainly in regions where there is already hunger and starvation. So-called capitalist green policies are nothing but lies and the best way of opposing them is with a programme defending the needs of society and nature.
The green new deal, and the popularity of the demand for free public transport amongst the 2019 school strikers were positive developments. We have to build on this by explaining the need to link with the workers movement and transform the economy, instead of calling for more capitalist investment. But we do not stop there. We mobilise around concrete demands and to mobilise against COP 26. Even that is not enough — we have to translate our socialist programme into a very clear strategy for the climate movement, by building a democratically organised opposition to the self-proclaimed NGO and petti-bourgeois leadership of the movement.
During the 2019 movement we did this by establishing action committees to discuss the programme and tactics. And we also explained that the lack of leadership from the workers’ movement around the issue of the environment hasn’t always been the case. Since the very beginning of trade union organisation, the environment has been one of the main topics of struggle. In recent weeks in Belgium, there has been outrage over pollution by a company called ‘3M’. People living near the plant, including many workers, couldn’t let their children play outside, couldn’t eat eggs or vegetables. And in contrast to the politicians who only recently became involved, the unions had been raising the pollution danger for a very long time.
We have to explain why examples such as that of ‘3M’ show the failure of green capitalism, and therefore the need for workers control, planning and ownership of production. This is especially when we see that part of the movement is stepping back to individual and petty bourgeois methods grounded in the disappointment of the achievements of the 2019 movement, but also by the lockdown which has been forced on social struggle in the past year.
In 2019, many workers expressed their solidarity with the climate strikers. Teachers were even encouraging their students to strike. This solidarity was one of the reasons why the capitalists have tried to create a divide between the climate and workers’ purchasing power. The ruling class does this by pushing anti-social climate taxes. But they go further. During the 2019 climate strikes there was a company in Belgium, Bekaert, which announced they would move production to Eastern Europe because the emission rules in Belgium were too strict. The climate movement should have built solidarity with these workers by putting forward a green conversion plan for production and the protection of their jobs.
Extinction Rebellion and other NGOs have no answer to this division, expressed in their slogan “We have a moral duty to act, irrespective of politics”. We should focus on the most advanced layers in these protests, those who understand the climate can be a single-issue protest, but which needs a political programme. This is because the climate crisis is not developing in isolation, it is developing within the general social and political crisis of capitalism.
Global tensions between US and China continue to grow. Chinese leader Xi Jinping talks of ‘bloodying the heads’ of those who oppose China. He does this in part to whip up nationalism within China, to divert attention from the multiple domestic conflicts it faces. Every one of Joe Biden’s policies is aimed at undercutting Chinese capitalism. He has met with some success with his anti-China campaign with the breakdown of the China — EU trade deal and creation of the QUAD [Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — the United States, Australia, Japan and India]. Tensions have been exacerbated by the competition to control Covid with the breaking out of the vaccine wars. 85% of administered vaccines have been into the high — and medium — income countries.
The new cold war between China and the US is the most important process that dominates our world perspectives. Everything that Xi Jinping does is aimed at winning the cold war against the US. This is intended to lead up to a new personal victory, so he wins a new term in 2022, opening the way for him to rule for life. On the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, he stepped up his hard-line nationalism — speaking of 1.4 billion Chinese people forming an iron great wall ready to smash the heads of foreign aggressors.
But there is a huge disconnect between Xi’s bold wolf-warrior statesmanship and the real crisis he is facing at home. The population crisis is particularly acute. In 2020 there was the lowest birth-rate since 1961 — the last year of the three year famine, which resulted from the failed Maoist economic policy. The birth-rate was 1,3 for every woman in 2020 — far below the 2,1 needed to maintain the current population. Even though the government abolished the one child policy in 2015, the birth-rate only increased slightly, but has since tanked.
The Chinese economy is due to lose 35 million workers by 2026, equivalent to the whole British workforce — the fifth largest economy in the world. You can imagine how devastating that will be for the Chinese economy.
People can no longer afford children, because the welfare state that once existed has disappeared over the past 40 years. Everything in China costs money — healthcare, childcare, voluntary education. It is estimated that in China’s cities to raise a child to 17 years of age costs $42,000, equal to four years of average salary. It is very common now in urban China for there to be a 4–2–1 family structure — one working adult has to support two parents and four grandparents.
As a result, recently there has developed the ‘lie flat’ philosophy — basically opting out. It began with an online post on the Chinese internet in April and became viral within months. The core of the philosophy is to not buy a flat, not buy a car, not get married, not have children and to say no to consumerism. Just to maintain the bare minimum of living standards. This philosophy is very popular among Chinese youth — many online forums have been set up with thousands involved. They no longer want to be part of the system. This is their way of expressing anger at the brutal dictatorship. There are many discussions about refusing to be part of the a profit-making machine, about refusing to work overtime, about forcing bosses to pay more and how if we all refuse to buy flats speculators will go bankrupt. Some people compare this to Ghandiism or non-cooperation.
This is the mass rejection by youth of Xi’s ‘Chinese Dream’, against 9–9–6 working — from 9am to 9pm 6 days a week, which is very common. Major cities in China like Shanghai are amongst the most expensive cities in the world. And yet China is a country where half the population — 600 million people — live on less than 145 USD a month. Last year there were more divorces than marriages in China.
So how can Xi fight the cold war against the US with a declining and ageing population. This is a big problem for the CCP. This is why the state is speaking out against the ‘lie flat’ philosophy by closing down the groups. It can only rely on repression, stepping up censorship with attacks on feminists and LGBT groups online. They have to defend the ‘nuclear family’, to make babies to defend the motherland. They say that homosexuality and feminism are western ideologies. Paradoxically, in order to strengthen the labour force, the Chinese state is making the situation worse in the long term by increasing the retirement age from 55 for women and 60 for men to 65 for both. This is because the main childcare provider in China are the grandparents. If they have to work longer, families will have less children and women will be forced to stay at home.
On the surface, the economic indicators look good, but from a low baseline. But further growth will be difficult because of the cold war, decoupling and low domestic consumption. All that Xi cares about is ensuring his victory for a third term in 2022, and to that end he will only focus on short term victories with repression at home and wolf-warrior imperialism as foreign policy, but this will not be enough to stop revolution for ever.
As far as the global economy is concerned, there has been a temporary rebound seen in the richer parts of the world driven by state intervention and the release of pent-up demand. This has passed many countries by. This is not a recipe for stability. There are now major threats to the global economy including decoupling, the pandemic, the collapse of debt bubbles. According to the bourgeois economist Nouriel Roubini, these fuel the danger of ‘macroeconomic disruption’. The global economy is sitting on top of a tightrope. Raising interest rates to slow inflation risks triggering a debt crisis. But if no action is taken there is the danger of double-digit inflation. What scares them most of all is that double digit inflation could spur struggles for higher wages leading to the re-emergence of class struggle. The neoliberal era in which profits were made from financialisation, privatisation and globalisation has ended, all that is left are neoliberalism’s parasitic consequences. The capitalists face a dilemma — whatever tactics they use — continued state intervention or renewed attacks on the working class — they will not achieve long term stability.
Without last year’s global stimulus capitalism would, by now, have been in global depression. These packages, the biggest in peacetime, amounted to 17% of the global economy. But this dramatic shift in policy, even compared to 2008–9 is at a price. Global capitalism has become more fragmented and debt ridden. Big government is back while capitalists are more dependent on state support and subsides to stay afloat. The present rebound is weak and uneven.
The projected high growth this year is due to the restart of economy. Despite the recovery, there will be 205 million unemployed next year compared to 187 million in 2019. The rise in long-term unemployment is a new global trend. As the new cold war heats up, and the climate crisis worsens we cannot expect any long-term recovery. This year, we have already seen many extreme weather and climate related disasters, while the battle to save the climate is a race against time, as many tipping points have already been reached.
The new capitalist order established after the collapse of Stalinism is crumbling — giving way to a more dangerous world with nationalism, conflict and a new arms race the order of the day.
Even before this crisis, confidence in the economy, particularly in Latin America and Southern Africa was falling. Now growth in low income countries is expected to be the lowest for 20 years. There has been a massive increase in world hunger, while Africa now spends 3 times more to repay the banks and speculators, than it would cost to vaccinate the whole population. We should demand “cancel the debts — refuse to pay them”.
Capitalism has become more parasitic and short-sighted. Loans are taken out not to expand production but to speculate and provide income for shareholders. The concentration of capital and monopolisation have gone much further than even Marx could have imagined. The top 50 companies have a combined wealth of 20% of global GDP — twenty years ago it was only 5%. Only 7 countries in the world have a net worth higher than Apple’s.
The stimulus packages and low interest rates have boosted the wealth of the rich with global inequality higher than ever. Global capitalism is in a state of long-term stagnation which combined with a trap of poverty and inequality — creates the danger of stagflation. The present recovery which, even if it lasts for some years which cannot be ruled out, will be too weak to ensure stability for the ruling elite. This means we move into a period of revolutionary and counter revolutionary instability — the Covid crisis marks the turning point, the moment that will define the 21st Century.
In this period of growing instability, we can be certain that explosive events, revolution and counterrevolution are on the horizon, with continued waves of struggle and revolt. Consciousness will be extremely polarised and radicalised on both sides. On the left, attempts by the ruling class to implement austerity will be met by ferocious resistance. In Columbia, an attempt to increase taxes for the working class led to weeks of union led protests forcing the government to retreat. Latin America is emerging as the new epicentre of class struggle. In Peru, Paraguay, Brazil, Chile defeats for the right wing have continued.
A placard used during a demonstration in Columbia read: “If people rise in protest during a pandemic, it is because the government is more dangerous than the virus”. This well describes the mood driving the resurgence of struggles in Latin America. It was heard in opposition to the tax reform bill presented by the far-right government of Ivan Duque, which would put the weight of state debt and capitalist crisis onto the shoulders of the working masses.
This provoked a national strike day called by the trade unions and indigenous movements and, since April 28, led to an incredible and inspiring mass uprising. Columbia has seen government after government rigidly applying neoliberal economic policies combined with repression by military and paramilitary forces. The successful national strike and demonstrations of April 28 met disproportional violence by the police. This only increased the strength and size of demonstrations. Because of that, the government was forced to retreat from its proposed tax reform.
But the movement did not stop there. It went on to demand the investigation and punishment of those responsible for state violence and vaccines and an emergency aid for all.
The Colombian government, in order to weaken the movement, tried to combine repression and “institutional negotiation”. This was welcomed by reformist parties and trade unions bureaucracies, who argued since the beginning of the struggle, that the only solution is to vote for their reformist candidate in the next presidential election. This same policy was adopted by reformists in Brazil after millions of people in hundreds of cities started to occupy the streets fighting to get “Bolsonaro out”. The combination of violent repression with “institutional negotiation” has produced bitter-sweet results for the Latin American masses in countries like Peru, Ecuador, and Chile.
In Peru, at the end of 2020, mass demonstrations against corruption, economic inequality and the attempt to impose a new president through a coup took place. They formed the background to the defeat of the right-wing during a very polarized electoral process in June, which saw the victory of left-winger Pedro Castillo, a former trade union leader, who inspired by the experience of Chile, promised a new constitution.
In Chile, the massive struggles begun at the end of 2019 not only defeated a package of economic neoliberal reforms presented by the conservative government of Piñera, but resulted in a Referendum and the beginning of a Convention to draft a new Constitution to replace the neoliberal one created by Pinochet’s military dictatorship. The process is not finished yet and is at risk of being undermined by Piñera and his supporters. Our comrades in Chile are intervening to demand freedom for the political prisoners from the 2019 protests and raising the need to occupy the streets to gain a real new constitution for the working class and youth in Chile.
During the last period, we also saw mass struggles conquering the right to abortion in Argentina, defeating a coup in Bolivia and other inspiring processes. However, because of the lack of a socialist alternative, these struggles resulted only in small victories for the working class and the youth.
There is another demonstration poster used during the Colombian uprising which said “To survive tomorrow, we need to struggle today”. Latin American masses showed that they are prepared to struggle. However, this is not enough. A socialist political alternative is urgent, and that is the task that we, from ISA, hope to fulfill in the next years.
In Sweden, our party played a key role in defeating the neoliberal policies of the government, in particular market rents. We will see the emergence of new reformist leaders who will be tested by such events.
In many struggles state repression has been a dramatic feature. Sometimes this has acted as the whip of counter revolution, provoking more struggle as in Israel-Palestine.
The latest attacks by the Israeli state provoked a mass uprising of Palestinian youth in Gaza, which won important victories. The Supreme Court has adjourned the hearing on the Shiekh Jarrah evictions, the blockade of the Al-Aqsa compound by the police was lifted, and the ‘Flag parade’ disrupted. The ‘Flag parade’ was planned in the Arab part of Jerusalem in which the far right chant “death to all Arabs”. It is backed by the Israeli government.
During the 11 day attack on Gaza, the Israeli state attempted to drown the uprising in blood killing at least 250 people, including 67 children. Whilst 12 people were killed by Hamas rockets. The Hamas strategy of indiscriminate rockets gave the right-wing Israeli regime the excuse to suppress the popular uprising describing it as a ‘war of defence’. This failed strategy stems from Hamas’ disbelief in the ability of the Palestinian masses to end the Israeli occupation.
The continued resistance and the firing of rockets was a blow to the Israeli regime’s prestige. The Israeli military armed to the teeth by imperialist powers responded by bombing whole apartment buildings, displacing tens of thousands. During the eleven days of bloodshed the heroic mass movement did not die down. The discontent of the young generation of Palestinians who have grown up with discrimination, poverty, state brutality, led to an unprecedented mobilisation.
Demonstrations on campuses, workplaces and all over fed into the ‘Dignity strike’ of 18 May. The strikes affected Palestinians from the annexed West Jerusalem, the Druze villages in the Golan area, and in many so-called ‘mixed cities’ in Israel. This was an active strike with pickets and barricades in some places. It took place against the opposition of the biggest union federation and despite threats to blacklist and attack participants.
This rebellion of Palestinian youth shattered the impression Israel is trying to promote — that they could isolate and weaken the Palestinian struggle by linking up with the Arab regimes in the region in what is called the ‘normalisation process. The Israeli state’s brutal attacks shocked the world and provoked mass solidarity actions. In Tunisia, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, across the US and Europe the solidarity actions increased the pressure on the Israeli regime to stop its brutal attacks and finally agree to a ceasefire.
In Israel, some Jewish people took part in anti-war protests, although a large part of the working class still accept the regime’s argument it was acting in self-defence. The rebellion of Palestinian youth was answered by both state repression and attacks by the far right. These developments turned into a situation with elements of civil war mainly in the mixed cities. The desperation led to attacks by Palestinian youth on Jewish bystanders as well. Remarkably the reaction to this was solidarity actions by both Jews and Palestinians, significantly in workplaces were Jews and Arabs work together.
The oppression of the Palestinian people has not stopped after the ceasefire. In the last days of May a new coalition government was formed headed by the right-wing racist billionaire Naftali Bennet. The establishment parties from the right, centre, and so-called Zionist-left together with the Arab party formed a coalition called the ‘government of change’ to remove Netanyahu. What kind of change? The new government has already bombed Gaza again.
Socialist Struggle Movement has argued from day one for opposition to this government of change, but the majority of the Israeli public still see it as ‘the lesser evil’. We think the honeymoon period of this government will be short as those who have been involved in struggle, particularly healthcare workers will come into conflict with the new government. Meanwhile the new phase in the Palestinian mass struggle has not died down.
The role of socialists in Israel and Palestine is to cut across the national divide, to unite on class lines to develop a socialist programme to build for the mass movements that will come and to build a socialist alternative that can end the occupation of Palestine, end poverty, sexism and racism — end capitalism to establish a future of peace and prosperity for all in the region.
At the beginning of 2021, we saw a wave of feminist struggles.
Violence against women continues to be a major issue, not just in terms of its scale, but because it increasingly motivates women to take part in protests. Covid has made some protests smaller, but this does not mean movement is in retreat.
In Turkey, where 300 women were murdered last year, there have been big demonstrations against Erdogan’ s decision to withdraw from Istanbul convention [which calls for action to prevent domestic violence]. Erdogan claims that feminists are against motherhood.
In France too, which has the highest femicide rate in Europe and where victims receive little police support, large protests have reflected those in Britain against the murder of Sarah Everard by a police officer. These actions have gone further to oppose the increase in police powers and restrictions on rights to protest.
In Australia, cases of sexual abuse and rape in the Parliament caused a huge uproar. Prime Minister, Scott Morrison suggested that those women participating should be “grateful they are not shot like in Myanmar”, where 60% of those protesting are women. Sexual violence in Columbia is a means of scaring women from taking part in protests. “Our bodies are not a battlefield” is a popular slogan used there.
There is no separation between the womens’ and the workers’ movement. In India it was mainly women farmers involved in the 40000 strong protests on International Womens’ Day. In Israel, a strike in protest against an attack on a woman by a police officer was organised by a union in which women are in a minority.
The use of strikes as part of the movement against violence against women is an important sign of its increasing integration with the workers movement, with the former using working class methods of struggle.
There is a growing rejection of bourgeois feminism too. Even the case of Britney Spears — a rich white western celebrity — hit a nerve amongst many working class women because her experience highlighted economic dependence, objectification, the lack of control over her own body and gaslighting. Increasingly many are calling for system change.
This is not straight forward, there are many complications but also many opportunities. The Marxist analysis of the state can be remarkably clarifying when explaining the role of the police, the state and so on. So if ISA puts forward a bold Socialist Feminist programme it can be enormously attractive.
But state repression can also play a demoralising role as in Myanmar and Columbia.
The revolution in Myanmar is a striking example of revolution and counter-revolution playing out in real time. The situation contains key features of this period: dominance of the new cold war and inter-imperialist tensions, the centrality of the national question, ramping up of state repression, the key role of women in struggle globally both on the streets and in the workplace, and the interconnectedness of struggle around the world with an emergence of a much stronger though still politically immature internationalist consciousness.
It has been nearly 6 months since Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, staged a coup. And now nearly 6 months of resistance to that coup by workers, youth and the oppressed. This resistance was started by strikes of health workers and escalated into a sustained movement which included 2 massive general strikes that brought the country to a halt. With millions of workers across all industries going on strike and hundreds of thousands on the streets in every city and across the countryside. We’ve pointed to the global reemergence of struggle on a higher level in the 2020s — this has been reflected very strikingly in Myanmar where the pure tenacity of the masses has been on full display
One of the most significant features has been the role of the working class in this struggle and in line with global trends it has been health workers and women workers leading the way. Myanmar has no long tradition of trade unions but in a case of the capitalist class producing its own grave-diggers, it was the privatizations and the opening up of the economy to the West and in particular the fast-fashion industry that allowed for this rapid development of a powerful working class in Myanmar. For a new generation — the first with mass access to the internet and smartphones — this promise of sustained linear growth and a stable future on the basis of capitalism has been brutally exposed. As what was lauded as one of the of the fastest growing economies in Asia has been plunged into a state of complete disarray. And while of course the coup is a key factor, this chaos is not an anomaly. Yesterday the FT reported that 1.6m garment workers have lost their jobs across seven Asian countries including Myanmar due to the pandemic
The level of state repression against the revolution has been shocking and it’s been the whip of counter revolution that has kept this movement ignited for so many months. For the working class and oppressed the stakes are high — revolution is tied up with survival — but in the eyes of the ruling class their stakes are equally as high, as they fight for the very survival of their system. The most recent death toll from May was over 800 killed including 75 children and thousands remain in detention now exposed to COVID-19, which is seen as only an escalation of the regime’s campaign of torture. Its estimated that 680,000 people have been displaced by the coup.
And as the third wave of the pandemic rips across southeast Asia, the situation has devolved into what the UN has called a “multidimensional human rights catastrophe”. This revolution has put on full display the raw power and potential of the working class. The military, which itself directly owns significant sections of the country’s economy, has not been able to seize control of the situation. But it also sharply exposes the dangers present in the world situation today and the lengths to which the ruling class is willing to go — as we’ve also seen in Hong Kong and in Colombia.
This is not due to lack of courage on the part of the movement. But fierce determination and pure willpower aren’t enough.
While the working class has put its stamp on events in an impressive way, it’s lacked the political organization and program to take struggle forward, to escalate the strikes, and to democratically organize self-defense. Many young people have now turned to guerilla struggle joining up with ethnic minority armies. Without the centralizing political force — a revolutionary party — necessary to organize this, the country is careening towards a Syria type situation
Around the world the deep rot of the capitalist system is on display. While movements can and will be thrown back the reality is that the ruling class has no real answers to the crisis of their system. The only answers lie with the working class and its through struggle that these conclusions have to be reached.
Polarisation and radicalisation can also lead to a growth of the right. In the absence of organised left forces, the right is posed to fill the vacuum if the left does not secure victory. In many countries we have seen the Trumpification of traditional right wing parties, or the emergence of new forces such as the far-right Vlaams Belang party in Belgium. Often the right exploit Covid fatigue, or in other cases the combination of the pandemic and austerity can lead to struggles of desperation.
Zimbabwe, South Africa and eSwatini are linked together not only by their economic ties, but by rising inequality, gender based violence, climate change, austerity, rising unemployment and declining wages. Consciousness amongst young people is rising in these three countries and many question the legitimacy of their governments.
The working class is looking for alternatives and we are raising the banner for an internationalist approach and for socialism. ISA in South Africa has worked to build the footprint of ideas and to build the labour movement, to build struggles led by youth and communities, as well as in solidarity work.
Many goods enter Zimbabwe and eSwatini through ports in South Africa. This means the countries are connected, as are events. When food riots began in South Africa in July, there were also shortages in the other two countries. These food riots took place because capitalism has left the majority of people in a state of desperation. However mass anger does not necessarily mean a rise in consciousness, that is why we have to raise the banner for socialism.
South Africa’s economy went into decline even before the start of the pandemic. Factors including more austerity and harsh lock-downs have accelerated the decline. Millions lost their jobs last year, now the unemployment rate is at 32%. The state has failed to stabilise the economy, instead the state is attacking the masses.
The ruling party has been in power for 27 years, but internal conflict has intensified over the years. Leaders of the ruling party have been accused of corruption and the abuse of power, but the main reason it is losing support is its failure to offer solutions. It cannot solve the crisis of South African capitalism because it uses neoliberal policies, and attacks the working class. These policies have resulted in mass unemployment, wage freezes and dangerous working conditions during the pandemic. This is while inequality continues to rise within the country.
The mass action that broke out in South Africa this month was led by people who are frustrated and desperate. Many people have lost hope, about half of youth are unemployed and want change. The food riots indicate that the struggle against hunger has escalated. The ruling party has lost legitimacy to a lot of people.
In the same way the King in eSwatini has lost legitimacy in the eyes of the people. He lives in luxury while half the population live in poverty, treating the country like his own personal property since he took over in 1986, when he was 18 years old. Young people are seeking democracy and argue that the King should not be above the law. This year has seen several protests, including by farmers and pro democracy protests. More than 40 people died in the last uprising.
ISA in SA has to look at solidarity actions with the people of eSwatini, like the actions we organised in support of the Zimbabwe people. Then although the democracy campaign in Zimbabwe was seized by reactionary forces, ISA still attracted new members. We demonstrated it was not enough just to remove the dictator, but it is necessary to change the system. We will have to play the same role in the mass protests in South Africa, that we expect in the coming period.
The stakes for the left are enormously high — the potential for revolutionary events exists, but the forces of organised Marxism on a world scale are far too small. We need to ferociously fight for political clarity and to build the forces of Marxism which Trotsky said requires “revolutionary energy, political sagacity, experience, broadness of vision, resoluteness, hot blood but at the same time a sober head”.
In summing up the discussion, Per-Ake from ISA’s International Executive pointed out that this had been “an excellent, perfect start to the VMU. It showed that ISA has a unique perspective and programme on all issues around the globe.”
The capitalists and their politicians do not know how to estimate what is going on in world. Deutsche Bank say they are not sure what is valid any longer. The combined intelligence agencies in the US have told Biden they see an increased weakness of the world order. They continued: there is a trust gap when the population is demanding more and more. Covid is far from over. Last week saw half a million new infections every day. The worst hit countries — Namibia and Tunisia and a number of other countries have very low levels of vaccinations.
When the politicians meet at all their ‘G’ summits — G7, G20, etc — they have no collective plan. Someone said we shouldn’t compare with the 1930s — but this is the similarity. The ruling classes are all national and cannot cooperate together when there is a serious crisis.
A new attack on living standards in Columbia was the last straw triggering the mass movement, then as in many other cases it became a movement against police and state repression. As in many other recent movements it lasted longer, it was much younger, and was in many cases led by women. Columbia is the closest ally of the US in Central America, and it is clear the ruling class fear the outbreak of new struggles. So the Columbian government has retreated and said it would not touch VAT, pensions and income tax. Instead it raised the corporation tax on business from 31–35%.
What did we mean when we said that neoliberalism has reached its end? It will meet mass resistance, it cannot be implemented — or at least very it will be very hard to do so. Chile has suffered neoliberalism longer than any other country. Now we see which issues dominate in Chile today. Social rights, rights for women, for indigenous people, improved education and better health care. I really want to echo the emphasis on the importance of LA.
The Covid crisis has hit women, particularly working class and poor women particularly hard. It is clear who does the hard jobs in society. At the same time there has been an increase in violence against women, attacks on abortion rights and so on. These have met strong resistance. The latest example is in Switzerland after the large movement a couple of years ago.
The world recovery is far from stable. Despite all talk of recovery, the global economy will be smaller at the end of this year than at end of 2019. Now most economists fear inflation. We all know food is much more expensive than a year ago. Globally food prices have increased by 40% in a year — in Lebanon by 400%. The increase is higher where there are more informal workers. When we say neoliberalism has reached an end means that the role of governments and states will change in the economy. Deutsche Bank says this is the biggest shift in direction in 40 years.
The intervention of the comrades in Israel and Palestine in the courageous struggles against evictions is very important. After Trump left the scene, the situation there developed into a new phase. Inside Israel we hear of elements of civil war with violent attacks by the extreme right. We also heard the role of the so-called “change government” that means “no change”. It bombs Gaza, uses state forces again against the Palestinians. It has also been met by strikes and struggles by workers in Israel. Our unique emphasis on the need to link up with the Israel working class in this situation is extremely important.
Another unique feature of our international is our analysis of the importance of the new cold war setting the scene for all global events. Our conclusion — there will be no winners in that cold war. Joe Biden had a kind of honeymoon when he was elected, then he took a honeymoon trip to Europe where the main theme was China, to arm US allies in Europe and UK against China. Biden has tightened all the investment rules and tariffs started by Trump. The US ruling class and its politicians want to increase arms production, Artificial Intelligence, aerospace and new technologies. There will also be a cold war over the climate.
In a new article on the ISA website, on the flooding in Germany, the key sentence is “there were warnings”. What has happened on the Pacific coast in America and in Western Europe will have big effects on consciousness. People will not blame the weather, but as with the Covid crisis will blame the politicians.
Myanmar was at the centre of discussions this spring in ISA. The military have achieved nothing. In an Interview on our site with trade union leader Khaing Zar, she explained how the trade unions organised resistance from the first day. But now the economy has collapsed, armed struggle is affecting every state and the state has failed. There are risks of a Syrian-type development with elements of proxy war in the context of the cold war. We are in favour of multi-ethnic resistance led by the working class, and of course it has to be armed. But politics has to be 90% of the struggle. The need for multi-ethnic resistance is important elsewhere — in Tigray and Mali for example.
When reporting on the unrest in South Africa the capitalist press say it was about Zuma. We say it was about unemployment, poverty, corruption and the deep crisis in the ANC. The capitalists are leading society to bankruptcy. They cannot offer bread or peace, now they can’t offer healthcare during the Covid crisis. It’s the system, not individual politicians to blame.
When we ask what is consciousness, we have to understand it is changing all the time, with different lessons being drawn. We have heard from several comrades about the low consciousness, the lack of programme and, to put it mildly the lack of organisation. This can open the door for the right-wing, for the military, but as Bolivia shows they won’t last long in most cases.
The ISA has not only an excellent unique analysis but also unique action — the entire International should be involved in the campaign against the recall of Kshama Savant in Seattle, the solidarity campaign in China Hong Kong and the COP 26 intervention. Many of us have been locked in for a year or so, now we want to intervene to recruit, to spread our unique socialist programme building on the lessons and experience of the working class through history.
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