From the first appearance of COVID-19 in Belarus, Alexandr Lukashenko, President of the republic since 1994 has refused to take any measures to prevent the spread of the infection, describing the Coronavirus as “a lesson for drug users and smokers”. With nothing to stop it, the virus spread like wildfire. Even official statistics show that to date 68,000 people have been infected, almost as many as in neighbouring Ukraine, which has a population four times greater, but in which quarantine measures were used.
The economic position in the country is close to catastrophic. The closure of its borders has simply worsened the stagnation that has already lasted for several years. In the first six months of this year, foreign trade fell by 20%. Recently the World Bank issued an ‘optimistic forecast’, predicting that the economy of Belarus will suffer a ‘severe shock’ and contract by at least 4% in 2020. The reality is probably much worse. It is expected that this year more than 1,200,000 people, out of a population of ten million, will lose work.
A modern-day Bonaparte
Dissatisfaction with the rule of this modern-day Bonaparte has been growing for some time. In 2017, in order to fill a growing hole in the country’s budget Lukashenko introduced a tax on the unemployed, who he called ‘parasites’! In reply spontaneous protests of ‘non-parasites’ spread over the country and the tax reform was not introduced.
His refusal to recognise the threat of the virus, and the consequent problems it revealed in the health system was already undermining support for Lukashenko. His decision to go ahead with the Victory Day parade in Minsk to celebrate the 75th Anniversary of the end of World War 2 just as the epidemic was reaching its peak lead to such a drop in his support that the Belarus authorities banned the publication of opinion surveys in the mass media.
Before the appearance of the virus, August of this year was set as the date for the next Presidential election. All experts predicted that the campaign would be non-eventful, ending in the re-election of Lukashenko for another term. When COVID-19 struck, the whole of the Belarus opposition, from the social-democratic “A just world” to the liberals and nationalists found themselves prostrated. They adopted a moralistic position: calling for a boycott of the election to prevent an increase in infections. All the former ‘traditional’ opposition parties refused to nominate candidates.
Split in the ruling elite
According to Belarusian electoral law, to become a Presidential candidate it is necessary to collect 100,000 signatures. As the growth of opposition to Lukashenko became obvious, at least to a part of the Belarus establishment, they decided to use this. In particular, former Ambassador to the US and head of the state financed High-Tech Park, the largest IT cluster in Central and Eastern Europe Valery Tsepkalo and the banker Viktor Babariko confirmed the open split within the ruling elite by launching campaigns to be nominated as candidates. The new mood of opposition was also used by the well-known blogger Sergey Tikhanovsky.
The dislike of Lukashenko and the desire to break out from under his 26 year-long rule found an echo in the call by the new candidates to sign their nominations. A mass mobilisation, unseen in scale which the media dubbed the “revolution of signatures” took place. Despite the virus, thousands of people turned out every day to stand in queues to sign, often stretching for kilometres around several city blocks.
These mobilisations quickly met with a response from the regime. The police began to interfere with the collection of signatures, arresting activists. A police provocation was organised against the videoblogger Sergey Tikhanovsk, he now faces criminal charges. The pro-regime media launched a massive campaign accusing the other candidates of all sorts of deadly sins, from wanting a repeat of Ukraine’s Maidan in Minsk to being financed by the US or EU. When Viktor Babariko turned up to the electoral commission to submit the 300,000 signatures he had collected, they were rejected and he was arrested. He now faces criminal charges and his home has been searched. Valery Tsepalo fled to Russia to avoid arrest.
Bloodthirsty threats
Even before these arrests, Lukashenko had hysterically threatened mass shootings: “My friend Rahmon [President of Tadjikistan], machine gun at the ready entered the capital to restore order — how many people died there. We shouldn’t forget how President Karimov in Uzbekistan put down a putsch in Andijan, shooting thousands of people. Everyone accused him then, but when he died they all fell on their knees, weeping and crying. We did not have to go through this, so we don’t understand it. Some of us. Well, we will understand it!”
But such statements merely provoked even more Belarusians to come out onto the streets in protest. By the middle of June, tens of thousands were protesting against political repression. And since then the protests have only grown in size, with the key slogan “Let it go!”. People have been standing in “solidarity chains” on the central streets of their cities. Everywhere the police or riot troops attempt to detain the peaceful protesters and in several cities they have been met by physical resistance.
Svetlana Eduardovna, a pensioner from Minsk expresses the mood of many when she says: “What have they actually done out of what they promised? Wages at 500? Who gets that much? Support for teachers and medics — that’s a lie. Now teachers have to work in classes where there are over 30 children, yet they get no extra pay for overwork. And what about the coronavirus. Why is the whole world fighting it yet they tell us that here there is no problem. It’s frightening to read the news — everyday there are more arrests. If we knew in the 1990s what they would turn the country into, we would never have voted in favour”.
Now Lukashenko is continuing to threaten the use of more violence, which is making people even more angry, they are even more convinced that “Sasha 3%”, his nickname after a poll at the beginning of June gave him only 3%, should go.
Is this the end of Lukashenko?
After the arrest of Sergey Tikhanovsky, his wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya agreed to be nominated. On 30th July, 63,000 participated in the demonstration in Minsk in her support. Even in smaller cities such as Brest tens of thousands came out onto the streets. These are the largest protests in Belarus in the last 30 years.
Lukashenko thought, that by removing all the male competitors from the election he would be out of danger. In a completely sexist way, he poured scorn on the ability of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya to be President. "Our constitution is not for women, our society is still not ready to vote for a woman, that’s why our constitution is written so the President has strong authority. Belarus is not Lithuania, where the President was Dalya Gribauskaite, who turned up, smiled, sat down then left. She wasn’t responsible for anything because Lithuania is a Parliamentary republic. But for us — no, the President must be a man — I am absolutely convinced of this. Lukashenko thought this would be enough to discredit Svetlana as a candidate, but she very quickly collected enough signatures to be registered as a candidate. The Central Electoral Commission registered her.
His patriarchal stupidity and sexism have played an evil trick on Lukashenko. Society has changed. Nobody in their right mind now thinks that somehow a woman is worse than a man. Both Belarusian women and men who are determined to protest are openly supporting Svetlana, who has promised she will be just a ‘technical’ candidate, who after winning the election will organise a proper election allowing anyone who wants to participate.
The campaign teams of the arrested Babariko and exiled Tsepkalo are supporting Tikhanovskaya, in effect forming a coalition against Lukashenko.
Russian mercenaries
Now Lukashenko is panicking. On 29th July just before the largest protest mobilisation, he arrested 33 soldiers from the Russian private mercenary “Wagner” group run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman close to President Putin. They claimed they were in transit through Belarus, one of the few countries that has not banned international flights, to Turkey to visit the Hagia Sophia cathedral. Lukashenko’s move was a desperate step, intended to scare people with the threat of a ‘Maidan’, and a repeat of what had happened in South East Ukraine on Belarusian soil.
Until these arrests the Kremlin had sympathised with Lukashenko’s suppression of the protests. The last thing they want is a Belarusian ‘Maidan’ in what, up to now, has been Russia’s most loyal partner. The Kremlin already has enough domestic problems to deal with, from the virus and economic collapse and the associated collapse in Putin’s ratings. For four weeks now, the city of Khabarovsk in Russia’s Far East has been seized by mass protests after the Kremlin removed the elected Regional governor. These issues are hanging over the Putin regime like Damocle’s sword. Inspired by the collapse of the Lukashenko dictatorship, dissatisfied Russians could easily repeat the experience of the Belarusians.
His unintended argument with Moscow could have serious consequences for Lukashenko. By arresting the mercenaries, he has placed the Kremlin in a very delicate situation. In trying to explain away their presence in Minsk, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson was left wriggling like a worm in a frying pan. Everyone remembers how it was these same mercenaries who were involved in the takeover of Crimea, and the conflict in East Ukraine.
The Putin regime clearly understands that the Belarusian dictator is finally becoming uncontrollable. If there is a growing political revolution against Lukashenko which results in a conflict between the dissatisfied masses and the police and KGB forces in Minsk, there is no guarantee that the Kremlin will support Lukashenko. They could easily come to an agreement with Babariko, who was earlier linked to the Russian gas company Gazprom, rather than with the now unstable Lukashenko.
To win the Presidential election in the first round, a candidate has to get over 50%. Yet in March, Lukashenko’s rating was just 27%, and since then it has only fallen further. This makes it unlikely that Lukashenko could win without massive manipulations which will be clear for everyone to see.
Lukashenko has fallen into a trap that he himself has set, and he has practically no room to manoeuvre out of it. If he removes Tikhanovskaya from the race, and a criminal case has already been opened against her, this could provoke a movement similar to that that took place in Kyiv’s Maidan in which angry Belarusians would, in mass, occupy the squares. There has already been some experience of such a movement in 2006, when the OMON riot police cleared the squares. If Lukashenko cannot remove Tikhanovskaya, then on the 9th August a large number of Belarusians will vote for her.
A beast with its back forced against a wall is triply dangerous. In the 1990s Lukashenko even killed his opponents. It is unlikely he will go peacefully. In the past few days, workers in various factories have threatened to come out on strike. This is a very good sign. The regime can be brought down only with the active and mass participation of the working class in struggle. A general strike against Lukashenko is a vital necessity.
Socialists demand an end to repression. Lukashenko should go, and his regime brought down. We express our solidarity to all Belarusians who are fighting for their democratic rights.
We understand that by supporting people from the ruling elite as candidates is seen as giving a chance to change things. But we should warn that these same people have supported Lukashenko for years and at the end of the day, they will defend the interests of their class, not those of the majority of Belarusians. Workers and the oppressed masses need their own party and organisations in the workplaces, able to organise strikes and demonstrations against the Lukashenko regime. Workers need their own representatives that can fight for the interests of the 99% and the fight for political power in the country. This is the only guarantee that we will not get another Lukashenko, or a new neo-liberal “reformer”.
Democracy for workers and all oppressed!
Freedom for all political prisoners, down with repression and the Lukashenko regime.
The way out of the crisis is through establishing a workers’ party to fight for a democratically planned economy and socialist society.
